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powayseller
Participantjg, I picture you as a great loving man, so I’m having difficulty reconciling this perception of you with your dislike of gays.
kristinejm, thanks for sharing your views. You sound like a great mom.
ParticipantIt’s a fact that almost 70% of all mortgages and refinances in San Diego County in the last 2 years are adjustable. In Phoenix it’s 40%, in Wyoming 25%. The majority of resets start next year.
I don’t put any faith in forecasting “by gut”.
A correction for you. It’s kind of cute that you say “your numbers”. The numbers are not mine. Mortgages are tracked by various firms, such as First American Real Estate Solutions and LoanPerformance, so it’s their numbers.
ParticipantWhat do you think will happen to housing prices when 70% of all homes purchased AND refinanced in San Diego since 2004 reset to higher interest rates?
We’re talking about 70% of 100,000 homes sold, plus 70% of unknown numbers refinanced, for a total of possibly 100K – 200K homes. What happens when they reset to higher interest rates? So you think that prices will drop less AFTER these mortgages reset, than before?
ParticipantBen Bernanke’s essays say that staying on the gold standard caused the depression.
“Bernanke rigorously explains the economics of the Great Depression – the holy grail of economics. For a long time there were different theories as to what caused the Depression, but recent rigorous economic studies, especially from an international perspective, have determined through massive data that the new, flawed gold standard of the 1920s was the main cause of the Great Depression. The banking collapse also was a major cause, as well as other lesser causes.
Bernanke shows that one country after another joined the flawed gold standard of the 1920’s, which caused a massive monetary contraction. The Great Depression quickly followed. The countries that abandoned the gold standard the soonest, such as Britain, were the ones that faired the best. The countries that clung to the gold standard the longest, such as France, were the ones that suffered the longest. The countries that were not on the gold standard avoided a Great Depression!…”
Do you think it’s true – that the gold standard limits economic growth, because you cannot grow beyond the amount of gold in existence?
ParticipantHe wasn’t a surgeon – he drained the appendix without gloves, mask, or any pain meds. You’re right – pathologists examine cells/tissue, so I may have the name mixed up. My sister said they should have removed the appendix. Their plan was to put a drain in it, and then send me on my planned trip to Germany with a drain in my abdomen; she said it was bad practice to send someone with an inflamed appendix out of country with a drain,and they should have immediately removed the whole thing. That’s what they ended up doing, but only because my sister insisted. The pain management was horrible too – I really though I was going to die.
ParticipantThis is a method I would use to see where a house price will end up. Select a house with a sales history before 1990, preferably back to the 1980’s or before. Chart all the sales, draw a trendline to 2000 (because that’s when the bubble started), and extend it out to 2015. What should be the price of that house now, and in 3 years? For the median house, the price should be in the high $200’s, not in the mid $500s.
The decline has been very rapid, considering we haven’t even had any loan resets yet. Next year, 25% of all mortgages in the US will reset at higher interest rates, and my opinion is that over 75% of those will default, thus adding to foreclosures and distress sales. The biggest price drops will come in 2007 and 2008, IMO. Besides foreclosures, we’ll have massive layoffs in realtors, construction workers, retail, and high tech workers, anybody and everybody will be affected by the loss of MEW and the recession.
ParticipantHey woodrow, glad to see you back. Love your upbeat outlook..
ParticipantMy friend says his SIL sold her Poway home in 1 day. people are still buying and selling homes every day. However, the prices are dropping. The SIL sold for about 15% less than one year ago. The values are dropping because demand is falling and supply is rising.
Months inventory = 10, meaning that it will take 10 months for all homes currently on the market to sell, and this is a very high number. It means that every seller has a 10% chance of selling, and that only 1 out of 10 homes will sell in any given month. This high supply/low demand puts downward pressure on prices. As long as months inventory is over 6, prices fall.
However, even in a falling market, homes are bought and sold every day. We are selling over 2000 homes every month.
So the home sold quickly because it was either in a very desireable area, or it was priced well. How much was that home worth last year?
There is a tendency for a pickup in sales this time of year, even though the fall/winter are the slowest time. This is all in my graphs which I will have on my website. I have to interview some realtors to understand why this occurs.
ParticipantGood post. I read on CnnMoney that Walmart’s lines were long, but the sales were small. If sales are small, then yesterday’s shoppers were bargain hunters, and can be easily dismissed. Let’s see what the rest of the shopping season brings, and whether the average shopper spends more than last year.
Participantdenis4x4, do you think they are not donating to the needy? Maybe they are.
In any case, we must be compassionate. It is our duty (to God) to give to the less fortunate.
What good is amassing wealth if your heart is closed?
ParticipantYes, I had a better experience as a Kaiser patient at Palomar, than a Kaiser patient at Kaiser. The main difference is in the staffing levels, both for nurses and doctors. Thank goodness my sister is a surgeon, and intervened on my behalf or my Kaiser experience would have been even worse. I mean, who would expect 10 days in the hospital for an appendectomy. I really thought I was dying when that pathologist did that procedure without pain meds. They basically puncture through your abdomen and hope they don’t hit your intestines in the process, and the pathologist was wearing no goggles or gloves. It was a little messy, so he was an idiot for having no goggles. But after 2 days of writhing in pain in the hospital, I was glad they were at least doing something. I was grateful to be in the US, because I would have died if I’d been a poor person in a 3rd world country. I also felt true hunger pangs for the first time,because I couldn’t eat for over a week in the hospital, plus 5 days prior at home. The hunger pangs are extremely painful, worse than the appendix pain.
I had an elective procedure at Palomar, and my Kaiser doctor said he also prefers working at Palomar.
Kaiser has only 1 hospital for all San Diego County members. I think they have over 500,000 members. So if you need the ER, take a book.
ParticipantHow long do you guys think it will take for the dollar to tumble, and/or inflation to hit over 10%? I’ve learned that the economy and the markets move much slower than I ever thought. Earlier this year, I was certain we’d have a recession by now, but I did not realize the Fed would keep loosening the money supply, and the private equity bubble was growing, and that housing prices take so long to fall. It could take several years for the dollar to fall. It can rise again next week.
ParticipantThanks for the tip.
I am somewhat concerned with the falling dollar, and don’t see how that trend can reverse. Bloomberg had an article today about the falling dollar. The dollar lost 30% until the Fed started raising interest rates, which attracted foreign capital to the US. Now that our rates are steady, and Europe is raising its rates, foreigners have a good alternative in the euro, making dollar investment less alluring. If the Fed lowers rates and the ECB keeps raising, look out below… I don’t see how the Federal Reserve could even think about lowering interest rates.
ParticipantJust make sure you get on the MLS.
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