[powayseller]

Be prepared to be hammered by Donna for posting this.

May I help Rima with her next post:
Rima consultant allknowing market upgoing $1000000.00. going up up up and away only Hiring rima. population coming here proven Shown census. trend Market higher Land shortage makes High prices $780000.00 this year up up and away. up up and away shortage Land makes go up up away….

[powayseller]

The post labeling Carmel Valley as a crime ridden immigrant shelter didn’t seem fair to zk, who presumably lives there. Any negative views about a city not our own must be treated respectfully. But then, maybe I’m the only one who makes a point and ends up offending?

[powayseller]

Hey, sdr, I don’t want to anger you. Scroll back through these posts. It started with me quoting from another website that listings don’t mean anything. You said you had your best year ever, and I questioned how this could be possible. You started calling me names.

Perhaps this helps: Imagine Delta’s CEO coming out and saying they are on track to have their best year ever. Their suppliers are pricing the gasoline just right, they attract passengers willing to pay the full fare, the labor unions are cooperative, and they were crafty enough to buy oil futures last year and have a steady supply of low cost oil. If I were an analyst in that room, I would ask for data to back this up. I can’t imagine that a CEO would be offended by that request or resort to calling the analyst pathetic.

[powayseller]

Thanks for the compliment. That’s really nice.

[powayseller]

I read the article too, but Will made a point of saying the illegals had not caused any crime. Perhaps some have. I’m sure there are many areas of Carmel Valley which are not next to this Canyon.

Overall, this is a great place to live, and each of us is fortunate to love our home turf.

While I do appreciate reading all these insights about other areas of the County, let’s stick with facts and keep it positive when assessing other people’s turf. It’s been upbeat so far, let’s keep it there.

[powayseller]

It sounds like things are toned down enough.

I would say to any realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser, title officer who asserts their income is up over last year:

“I’m calling your bluff. Data please….”

[powayseller]

Thanks for the great laughs…

[powayseller]

zk, please be careful with your choice of words. I think there was some liberty taken with my statements. No where in my posts is the “L” word. I don’t believe in insulting people. I do enjoy a healthy exchange of ideas.

I question sdr’s sincerity, because of the signals I’ve had from his posts. It’s highly unsusual for a realtor to be unfamiliar with the Cedar fire, shadow zips, and not have a website and maintain anonymity. It’s also odd that he doesn’t substantiate his claim of having the best year ever. I’m a logical kind of girl, and based on the evidence, I just don’t believe him about the higher sales.

I don’t know if that’s considered inappropriate, but in my judgment, and I’m a nice gal, it’s a fair statement to make. Look, we’re coming off the top of the biggest real estate bubble in history, realtors and mortgage lenders are being laid off, and a mortage officer or realtor tells me they have the best year in their career, and I’m left scratching my head. It seems highly unlikely, and I need some proof to buy that story.

And now I must take leave of this post. My husband is concerned that I might be upsetting some people, and who knows where that could lead. So please carry on this thread without me.

[powayseller]

I guess that’s why we ended up in Poway: for under $800K, you can get a 2300 sq ft house on a large lot, and you’ve got open space, hardly any traffic, low crime, and the good schools.

But if you’ve got the money, skip Poway and go coastal.

[powayseller]

It’s hard to believe he’s having the best year ever, when sales are down 35%, and when I ask him to substantiate, he gets defensive and doesn’t answer. So yes, I don’t believe him, and yes, I am curious how it could be so. If I turn out to be wrong, then I will apologize. My comment that I don’t believe him might be strong, but is not insulting. All ame calling came from his side, and the insults/name calling are really inappropriate. Asking someone to substantiate a strong claim is fair game. I would be happy to back up anything I write.

And I think someone else hit it on the head: sdrealtor could be a NAR troll.

That would explain his desire for anonymity. Every realtor I know wants her/his name out in the open, because that’s how they get clients and grow their business. Most realtors now have websites, to capitalize on the internet savvy clients. sdr has neither. It’s just a little bizarre, and I think we all need to wake up and realize he could be a troll and just ignore him.

[powayseller]

A refresher for us all:
“Unfortunately some of these debates have been accompanied by an increasingly negative conversational tenor. People have started to bag on one another and to get fairly combative, and the line between attacking a person’s argument and attacking the person has blurred.

So I’d like to take the opportunity to humbly request that everyone try to keep things positive. The fact that we can have intelligent topical debates without getting into flame wars says a lot about our little community – let’s keep it up!”

[powayseller]

Sounds like paradise. I might consider moving there myself. How are the lot sizes? (I don’t like those big boxy houses on teeny weeny lots, clustered 10′ apart.) Does Carmel Valley have established large-tree neighborhoods on 1/4 acre or more lots?

[powayseller]

Sorry to upset you, but I have so many questions. Sdr, you told us your sales were up year to date over last year, and I’m trying to understand, since closings are down 35%, and I asked for some numbers.

Why are you not sharing your success, your sales numbers?

Why do you get mad when I ask you to substantiate them? Doesn’t it seem reasonable that we all are trying to make sense of this?

You have a lot of listings, but that doesn’t mean anything, and that was the whole point of this post. Listings are worthless, because most sellers are not budging on price.

[powayseller]

So, sdr, no sales this year after all?

[powayseller]

Well, if sdr is having a better year, I’m still all ears. Somehow, he’s disappeared into the woodwork after being asked to support his own assertion that business is better than it’s ever been.

The sales/inventory rate went from 3/4 to 1/10 this year. That means only 1 out of every 10 listings are selling, versus 3 out of every 4 last year. Statistically speaking, John Lundin needs 10 listings to sell 1!

This is a crude way how I got my data:
Last year: Inventory 4K, sales 3K, ratio = 3/4
This year: Inv=20K, sales down 35% = .35*3K=2K, ratio =2/20=1/10
So last year you saw 4,000 signs, this year we see 20,000 signs. But with sales down 35% from last year, remember, we are down 35% from 3K sales, not down 35% from today’s level of inventory! So only 1 of 10 listings would sell.

It’s much harder to increase your income when you’re in a competitive field. We don’t know how many of Lundin’s sales complete, or how many fall out of escrow. Falling out of escrow if another trend, as buyers balk at repairs, can’t meet contingencies, get wet feet at the lender table, or just can’t qualify. It would be interesting to ask Mr. Lundin how this year stacks up to last year.

[Author]

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