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powayseller
ParticipantGreat story. They are usually wrong, just as the fund managers. I’m sure they try to be accurate. They have an interest in being right, because that gains them recognition. Tornberg uses the past to predict the future. There is value in that.
It’s interesting – at the conference I attended, he perfectly laid out the groundwork and current problems, and then jumped to a completely different conclusion that most of us on this forum.
Check out a 60 minute video he gave a few months back, which is the same talk he gave on May 3 in San Diego. If you don’t have 60 minutes to listen to the whole thing, go to the last 10 minutes to catch the RE part.
I’ll do my summary in the next few days, have been too busy lately.
ParticipantI’m in limbo on this issue. Euros? Renminbi (can you even buy it)? Or better to buy stocks in those countries, as Warren Buffett has done, so you get the benefit of the stock and the currency exchange.
In Dollar Crisis, Richard Duncan has about 100 charts/tables from the IMF and Fed Reserve to back up his points. He shows that the entire global economy slowed in 2000 when the US consumer slowed spending during our little recession (except China – don’t know why yet – am not that far in the book). He says when the US hits its next recession, the entire globe will hurt, because they are export oriented. In 2000-2001, commodity prices plunged as demand for goods dropped. This will happen again. Unless these countries can stimulate internal demand, they will hurt when the US goes into a big recession.
ParticipantWhy is the IRS against giving these companies charity status?
I agree that governments should not subsdidize housing. They would be buying at the top of the market, kind of like their pensions funds bought tech stocks in 2000. They should persuade people to never borrow more than 80% of the house. This goes to show the government ideas are not always in our best interest.
ParticipantJES, there is an exodus of people leaving SD. The Census Bureau said 44,000 in the year ending June 2005. If this trend continues, perhaps we’ve lost 60,000 more. This will continue until housing prices come down.
JES, are you willing to wait for prices to come down? Would you rent until they do?
ParticipantHi lostkitty. Rich’s e-mail is [email protected]. I already e-mailed my address to him.
ParticipantIt’s an advertisement for that company?
ParticipantLicketysplit, with all due respect, I cannot abide by your request to bash only exotic lending. Housing and lending don’t coexist in a vacuum. To understand the housing market, to predict its effect on our economy, you must look to the credit markets, global trade, oil, war. At times, even war affects housing.
For example, if Iran’s threat to trade oil in euros could lead to a recession, wouldn’t that it a reason for Bush to go to war? Wouldn’t that be, to him, just as good a reason as WMD? Wouldn’t the threat of an Iraqi oil bourse be the same good reason to him? He would feel he’s saving the American economy and people.
Bush would not publicly proclaim he is using nuclear weapons to attack Iran’s underground facilites to avoid the fall of the petrodollar, so he finds another reason. He says we must stop Iran’s buildup of nuclear weapons. Possible? I’m just wondering, if Iran is such a threat, why aren’t our allies all over it? Why is the US consistently the most aggressive country, even though we are geographically the furthest away. What is Bush afraid of in Iran, and why do China and Russia not share that fear?
Anyone who is a Bush supporter and feels offended by these questions, you have the choice to skip this thread. (I assume that a Bush supporter feels defensive by questions about his policies.) For anyone else, who knows, or who sees the relationship between politics and the economy, I appreciate any insight anyone has.
ParticipantThat is one journalist’s opinion – If Bush went into Iraq to get WMD, sincerely believing they were there, and there were none, why didn’t he just leave? Why are our allies not behind us in this war, if it is such a good idea? Maybe it is – I don’t follow politics, other than to know our foreign policy is not popular around the world. Now why is that?
Anyway, sorry to get off on the tangent.
ParticipantOur problems were temporarily alleviated by another asset bubble. When that dissipates, the true economy shall be revealed. Housing was a temporary fix.
What will be the next asset bubble, or the next bandaid? Or is it possible that we can actually improve this economy so it prospers on our productivity and exports?
As of today, our economy prospers because we have the reserve currency. The more we buy from other countries, the more dollar they get. If they don’t want their currencies to appreciate and hurt their exports, they must use those dollars to invest back in the US. Funny game: the more we import, the more liquidity we get. How long can this game go on?
ParticipantI think prices will drop more in San Diego and other bubblicious cities. Perhaps down 2-3% in places like Omaha, NE which didn’t have a price runup. This large drop in many large cities could cause a big recession. Depression would be caused by fall of dollar, large trade imbalance, loss of petrodollar…
ParticipantYes – how useful is our economy, when it is booming because we are buying and selling homes to each other. Very sad. The housing market leads the economy. Very sad.
ParticipantA catastrophe like bird flu would cause economic havoc. By the way, I heard on the radio a month ago that Health & Human Services recommended we keep 3 weeks food on hand, in case of a quarantine. I took this advice. And the mortality rate is not dependent on your health – this bird flu can kill people who are so healthy that they don’t even get a common cold. If I understood it correctly, the healthy are even more prone, because their immune systems are so strong.
But I suspect any economic damage would be temporary?
ParticipantSo the timing of the proclaimed possible war in Iraq has more to do with oil bourses than their plans to make nuclear power? (And by the way, is there evidence they are making nuclear weapons? And if they are, why should only the US have nuclear weapons? The US is the one country which should NOT have nuclear weapons – Bush is the one touting about all options are on the table, and he is likely to use them to continue his Overthrow agenda.)
ParticipantI think we’ll have a return to post-bubble prices. In SD, that’s 50%. In Omaha, NE, that’s 0%. If a recession, depression, etc. results, then it does.
The logic, “It can’t happen because then we would be in a depression” is a joke. Do you think it won’t happen because we don’t want it to?
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