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powayseller
ParticipantThe greed and false expectation of easy gains in RE was a necessity for this get out of control. Having 1% interest rates alone is not enough.
As Bugs said, other areas in the nation also had access to 1% rates. Why didn’t prices in Lincoln NE shoot up?
I had access to 1% interest, 0% down, but I didn’t have the get-rich-quick mentality, so I didn’t buy into an overvalued market.
The psychology was the force that moved this market, and the low interest rates made it possible.
ParticipantThe employment data is skewed to lower the actual real estate and construction jobs, because many of them are private contractors and don’t show up on the payroll surveys. CA has 1.5 million employees who are not counted in the payroll survey, and 20% are believed to be in construction and real estate. Landscapers and cosmetologists are other big groups in that sector.
If you add the informal employment, which is 10% of CA employment, the picture for RE job loss is much worse.
June 13, 2006 at 9:54 AM in reply to: Part 3 of UCLA Anderson Forecast: Job Loss and Recession #26718ParticipantIs everyone now convinced that the SD economy is dependent on real estate? There is no industry or occupation in San Diego that can contribute any employment growth, outside of real estate.
Any comments on the job loss and recession? Do you see how Thornberg missed the boat by not considering the losses in the secondary sectors?
I’d love some feeback from the RE bulls.
ParticipantI thought Qualcomm was a high paying employer, but perhaps their low salaries explain their high openings. I bet they compensate with good benefits and stock options. My friend’s husband did well on his stock options, and they cashed them in at the right time. She told me that at Qualcomm, you are expected to work until the job is done,but they are family friendly because they give family parties. That is NOT family friendly. So you work hard, you play hard. The guy I know heads a small division and is fully staffed and was completely surprised when I mentioned the 500 openings. He didn’t know there was even one opening.
Employers pay what they can. They pay less here, because they can. It’s the Sunshine Factor.
Remember that employers pay what the industry will bear, not what the local housing market demands.
ParticipantIf you pay rent to the bank, couldn’t the owner evict you for non-payment of rent? The contract is to pay the landlord.
Since the landlord is cash-flow negative, paying the rent to the bank won’t cover the mortgage anyway, so it won’t eliminate the NOD. To eliminate NOD, you must pay the balance due. I’ve heard of banks which send bank partial payments, and file a NOD.
ParticipantThe retail report should be out soon? The public retailers report their sales regularly. Does anyone want to check Walmart, Home Depot, Sears, Target, etc?
ParticipantIn December 2005, the U-T ran a story about the poor job situation in San Diego. Only a few companies have openings, and one is Qualcomm, with 500 openings they cannot fill because they can’t get people to move here. So this situation with Qualcomm has been going on for a while. My friend’s husband is a VP of one of their divisions, and he has no openings at all, and was surprised at the 500 figure when I asked him about it last month.
What is high paying? Do you mean an engineer earning $90K? That is not high enough for San Diego. How much do their engineers earn?
ParticipantHi Jonze, I think there are thousands of idiots like the one you mention. I read a story on the housingbubbleblog, from a FL newspaper article, describing a 23 yr old woman who bought 8 homes with 100% financing, all within a couple months. It’s unbelievable that she probably qualified based on her assets. Each asset would be the equity in the previous homes. An honest appraiser would have alerted the lender to the prior deals and not inflated their values. How can you have any equity on a home 100% financed just a week ago? The investors who bought these 1st and 2nd deeds deserve to lose all that money.
The sad thing is that many of these “investors” are your parents and grandparents, who were seeking the 10% interest that is guaranteed by these deeds. Anyone reading this, please ask your fixed income friends and relatives if they purchased any fixed income investments other than CDs. If they bought deeds or mortgage backed securities, beg them to sell.
People don’t realize that higher yield means higher risk, and a fixed interest of 10% practically guarantees you’re going to lose your principal.
June 12, 2006 at 8:34 PM in reply to: Part 3 of UCLA Anderson Forecast: Job Loss and Recession #26688ParticipantPrice stability is more important to the government than a few million homeowners losing their jobs or homes. They must prevent inflation, and the problem is that the economy is slowing and inflation is rising. Ben must either kill housing or kill the dollar. Either way, housing is toast.
If you can have ever-lasting economic growth without a recession, send the formula to Ben Bernanke. There is no such thing.
ParticipantLsplit – you condemn the hijacking, and then embark full force. So you approve of hijacking the thread?
I don’t think China wants to take us over, PD.
Anyway, I’m done with this thread, reading and posting. I haven’t had the response I had hoped, which is a realization that we must improve our foreign policy.
ParticipantI had no idea it was this bad. The solution is to work together with Tijuana to improve their infrastructure. We need to supply grants and loans so they can build a sewer system. This will raise employment and provide hope at the same time, and improve the environment.
ParticipantPD, I am not reading the link. I don’t have any interest in reading about warfare. That’s why I didn’t like history in school, because it was obsessed with wars. We have to rise above those primitve ways of handling things.
Our police force acts as a deterrent, and a very small military would be the same. The current US military is in offense mode. It starts wars in countries around the world, and meddles in their foreign affairs.
I am in favor of a small military which would act to defend us, and stays on American soil. Our diplomats are the ones who should be all over the world, not our soldiers.
I dislike your racist comments against Chinese. I have Chinese friends, and they are not at all as you describe. I wonder too about your comments to send me “back to Berlin”. You know the current US is comprised of foreigners from all over, who ousted the native Indians and Mexicans. Should I send you back to Ireland or Poland or Africa, so the Indians could be returned to their rightful land?
No hard feelings against you. I still look forward to meeting you some day, even though our views on the military are at opposite ends.
Participantocrenter, how is this working out for you?
ParticipantI didn’t mention Germany’s past (persecution of Jews, WW I and WWII) and neither did I mention the US’s past (slavery, the only country to use nuclear bomb). What use is it to dig up all the evils of the past? It doesn’t give any justice to evil today.
My son says there should be no military anywhere, and then there would be no wars. Because the military fights. The military is responsible for using weapons.
Bush makes a grave mistake by not knowing how to negotiate with rogue nations. His attitude of “I am better than you so I won’t negotiate” is basically showing him as unable to cope with them. His neglect in talking with them doesn’t make them go away. If I had an enemy, I would try to find out why they hate me, and then make a plan to get along.
Osama bin Laden is angry at the US policy in the Middle East, and stepping on their holy soil, specifically US support of Israel. The US should just let Israel be. Our support of Israel is creating all the terrorist actions against us. Is that really worth it?
It is propaganda that he wants us all to be Islam, or that he hates our way of life. Bush lies to us about the real reason, just as he lies about inflation, the housing bubble, the global liquidity problem, the real reason we are in Iraq. Just like Clinton lied about his mistress.
I am relieved that Bush bully tactics toward Iran were not supported by our allies. Now C. Rice proposed giving airplanes to Iran, and that has their interest. Again we see that giving a nation something they want is more effective than threats and war.
Bush was ready to use nuclear bunker busters in Iran, and now we see that ending the airplane embargo is going to have the same result (perhaps). But yet you are ready to use nuclear weapons, right PD? I’m proposing we do more of the airplane-trade kind of stuff, and that we talk with all the leaders and make allies, instead of enemies.
The military complex and their lobbyists are keen on keeping the wars going. Their lobbyists are probably more powerful than the cigarette lobby. Imagine we are still selling a product that is killing millions. Cigarettes should be illegal, but the lobby makes sure it is legal. The weapons lobby makes sure that the military is viewed positively and funding is strong. It’s really sad, and a primitive form of production.
The saints are not smiling at us, when we are making weapons. It’s a misguided attempt at security.
PD, your thought about the WMD which really existed but were moved is almost funny.
If WMD really existed, the Iraqis surely would have used them against us when we went to war with them.
No evidence, no trace was found anywhere in Iraq or anywhere else, or in interrogations or weapons inspections, and you can bet the US military used everything at their dispoal to try to find this stuff.
I asked my cousin in Germany how they can afford so many social programs and free university education. She said, “We don’t have a big military to support,as you do”.
Most important, I don’t see how any nation at war can feel right with God. Unless one is attacked, one should not be invading another country. I believe Bush is evil in what he is making the military people do. It is a great sin to be fighting this war in Iraq. The soldiers are doing the wrong thing to be fighting over there. They should refuse, and come home. They can surely find other, more life supporting work. In their hearts, they probably know it is wrong, but they are trapped in their jobs. I feel bad for them. What else can you do when you are trained as a soldier?
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