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powayseller
ParticipantWhich country has a stronger banking system than the US? Where do international investors and central banks put their money? I think the US banking system is still trusted by the majority. Your money is FDIC insured. The government will bail out all banks that need it.
What concerns me more is losing money to inflation. The true inflation is much higher than the official CPI.
My thoughts are more about stores of value, than losing my money.
Again, what makes you think the end is near. Why now? And why do you not trust the FDIC?
ParticipantI see that Poway homes are still selling pretty fast. Does anyone have an analysis of Poway price drops?
Nonetheless, if a Poway house worth $700K in 2000 is worth $1.4mil today, is that house likely to be worth $900K in 2009? What would make it keep its $1.2-1.3 mil price tag, despite the popularity of Poway? I’m thinking of the Grove and homes near Lake Poway in gated Bridlewood. How much will those drop?
Also consider how pricing will change in the upper ranges of Poway, in the multi-million dollar homes in Maderas and Lomas Verde Estates.
I’ve followed Poway foreclosures and I can tell you that most foreclosures are in the lower priced neighborhoods, where homes are under $600K. I found less than 5 homes in NOD status in the +$ 1 mil range. However, they do exist in Poway and La Jolla.
As far as Carmel Valley, which people believe is immune from foreclosure, I took the liberty of checking foreclosure.com. Zip code 92130 lists 168 tax liens, 13 bankruptcies, 42 preforeclosures, and 3 foreclosures. This is a sample of some of the larger homes in 92130.
Please correct me if these addresses are not the proper ones.
FORECLOSURE
5255 Vallery Ct, 6 br/5ba, 3656 sq ft, Timothy Kaler, also filed bankruptcyPREFORECLOSURE
13166 Sunset Point Way, 5/4.5, 3922sq ft, William Welsome, amt of defaulted lien $972K
5136 Meadows Del Mar, 6/7.5, 6555 sq ft, orig loan amount $3.6 mil. This one is now inactive, but did at one point fall far enough behind to have a NOD filed.
13267 Larkfield Ct
Four homes on Meadows del Mar (right on the golf course?)TAX LIEN
13425 El Presidio Way, Jeffrey and Melissa ClaggI think it’s safe to say that people of all income levels are overextended. The lower income people are quicker to go into default, since they don’t have as good access to credit and savings to bring their payments up to date. I wonder how long the inactives can go before they become Active again…
If anyone has any requests for their zip code, let me know. Poway is full of NOD and foreclosures, too.
ParticipantAnxious for your reply to Chris J’s question.
ParticipantBugs, could you tell us again how the last downturn varied among neighborhoods? I remember some areas went down more than others. Were any areas immune?
ParticipantDitto here. Gold is down, the dollar is up because everyone wants dollars as Ben is getting ready to raise interest rates again. I think the dollar has long term potential decline issues, but those losses are many years away and they are potential losses.
What do you think of euros for diversification, say 5% of assets? All of Europe is holding euros, and if it’s good enough for them, shouldn’t it be good enough for us? After all, they have a strong economy. I think the petrodollar might become the petroeuro, driving up the demand for euros even more. The downside is that the exchange rate is bad for us right now.
Why should we hold our entire assets in US stocks or US dollars? Isn’t that risky, too?
ParticipantIt is not my mission or in my ability to cause a crash. My goal is to inform.
Damage only comes to those who do not act. Some choices have consequences that cannot be minimized; they must be endured.
ParticipantGo through Rich. Or get a hotmail or yahoo account for that purpose?
Participantdocteur, I would like to hear your opinion of housing and where you think the market is going. I invite you to communicate your housing views on this real estate forum.
ParticipantThank you. I find it interesting that I am such a focus for people. Even the hijack thing. PD and docteur went off on some reincarnation thing, and nobody thought that was a hijacked thread?
One thing I learned from watching Schwarzenegger back down is that he really lost my respect. Now he is kissing up to the Teachers Union instead of keeping in his vision to reform them. I will not be as weak as Arnold, and silenced by criticism. Clinton was so insecure, he constantly used polls to revise his agenda. I am learning from their mistakes. I am proud to bring on controversy.
The only thing I do not want, is to offend people. If anybody ever catches me offending another person, please call me on that right away. It’s important that I treat everyone with respect and dignity.
Last weekend, I went to a showing, introduced myself to the realtor and her clients, and when the realtor was out of earshot, gave the client this website advising her to NOT buy now. The client was from the Midwest and had no idea about the housing bubble. The realtor had NOT told her. I prevented another financial crisis. Not to worry about the seller – he’s dead and the worst that will happen is that his heirs will get a little less money when they have to lower the price. So I continue with my mission: saving Americans from financial crisis one blog, one family at a time. “Can you hear me now”……
ParticipantI am sincere in wanting to read your threads. This way, you can have more control over where the topics go, and you aren’t as much under my whims of direction. Since you don’t like my approach, start your own. That way you can ignore me easier.
ParticipantSome men are threatened by confident smart women like me. The “spats” I draw are a result of my views. I do not start the attacks, although I sometimes respond to them. If you don’t like me, ignore me.
I am sure Barry Ritholtz and Rich also get this type of hate mail. Chris Thornerg admitted he got lots of hate mail from housing bulls. It goes with the territory. Bush is hated by over half of Americans. I think my track record is better on this blog 🙂
I do not judge my success by how much spat I can avoid in an internet chat room, but by how well I am loved by my family and friends, and how well I feel about myself inside. My success here is difficult to judge, as people hide behind their pseudoname and will not carry a real debate with their faces showing. If we all gave our names, I would judge my success by how many people’s finances I saved. But with the anonymity, it is hard to track this.
I want to have a good influence in the world, and help people with their finances. I am limited because my first obligation is to my family, so I live out my ambitions in this blog, instead of making the big bucks working as an economist.
Why don’t you start some of your own threads? I am sure we will love to read what you have to say.
ParticipantBUBLPOP (bubble pop)
20DWN (20% down)
RECRASH (real estate crash)
REBEAR (real estate bear)ParticipantHey carlisle, which of my views do you disagree with? (Other than my confidence, which seems to bug you)
Participantdocteur, I love your lilting prose. It warms my heart. It is also a shield. By not rocking the boat, giving advice, or providing a controversial viewpoint, nobody can ever get mad at you. It’s safe. We need people like you on this forum, and I love your style. However, I think you’ve got to look at what’s happening in the bigger picture.
My style is to rock the boat. A minister once said that being a good person does NOT mean you don’t rock the boat. I find that too many people are afraid of the anger that is directed at them when they speak up. I have the courage to face that anger.
Those of you who are irritated at the tiff between me and those who love to criticize me because of my views (NOT because of anything I have DONE to them), perhaps you ought to look into why I am attacked.
Has this forum become a place where real estate bear views are not welcome? Let the permabulls cry out “Neutral corners” or “your comments incited his response” responsibility stuff. While I respect all your comments, please think about why this forum exists: to present alternate real estate opinions.
My suggestion, if we are to have open and interesting debates, is that anyone who disagrees with any views, leave out the personal stuff. I also ask that anyone who violates this is promptly taken to task by the members of this forum, and reminded to stay on topic. We need more real-man comments, such as made by Chris J.
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