[powayseller]

Why would they remove it? Perhaps because it wasn’t an ad… Can you repost it in an advice area?

[powayseller]

from the webpage of Bill Fleckenstein, 6/20/06

“Holy Sheetrock, Commerce Dept!
Today’s economic data, in the form of housing starts, illuminate a point I’ve touched on recently, which is the sad reality that government data are nearly useless. The Commerce Department would have us believe that housing starts actually increased 5% last month — when virtually all publicly traded homebuilders have discussed the serious weakness in their orders.
While I suppose it’s possible that the homebuilders have essentially said: Damn the torpedoes, full-speed ahead and continued to start new homes, even as orders drop, that will only make matters worse. In either case, today’s starts data do not accurately reflect the current reality of the homebuilding business.
Were it not for the fact that government data — distorted as they are — matter to those who trade markets that I care about, I would ignore these statistics altogether. So, for folks who are making decisions based on government data, be forewarned.”

[powayseller]

Hey, that’s a good one. Can you post some of your replies?

[powayseller]

Thanks so much! I’ve never had it explained this way. You’re good at explaining things.

[powayseller]

Julian is a gem of a town. Have you considered selling, and buying a lot in a few years at 30-50% off? Not my business, but just wondering, since this is a housing forum.

[powayseller]

Why are you trying to catch a falling knife?

[powayseller]

Finally – a headline that proclaims the true state of housing.

[powayseller]

This article raises a couple questions, that hopefully somebody can answer.

QUOTE
The time that homes sat unsold increased from 42 days in the first five months of 2005 to 48 days during the same period this year.
The supply of unsold homes — measured by how long it would take to deplete the region’s unsold listings at the current sales rate — more than tripled from 2.4 months to 7.6 months, which the listing service said reflects the largest supply since it began recording such data in 1999.

“We have had a growing supply of listings since the middle of last year. But last year the sales were strong and this year the supply of listings has continued to grow and sales have slowed,” said Gordon Maddock, the service’s secretary treasurer.

Maddock said the 48-day listing average may be misleading because it only reflects houses that have sold. He said some houses are unsold after six months.

The number of listings, Maddock said, probably has been bolstered by “a lot of investors dumping properties,” people selling to tap built-up equity, and small home builders putting new homes on the multiple listings in an effort to speed sales.

END QUOTE

Q: How can DOM go from 42 to 48, a 15% increase, while the supply of unsold homes triples? Is there even a relationship between increase in inventory and days on market?

Q: How much of the inventory increase is due to builders putting their new homes on the MLS?

Q: DOM reflects sold homes. Is there a metric which measures unsold homes?

[powayseller]

He sure is. Check out his blog main page and commentary as he takes us along on his trades.

[powayseller]

Yeah, a super big rear, hahahahahahaha

[powayseller]

How can you get a rebound with the high inventory? What buyer would offer rebound pricing, i.e. a higher offer than need be? Realtors are helping their clients to lowball on every offer. As long as inventory is so high, offers will be lowballed, except in the most desireable neighborhoods. Even there, with multiple homes to choose from, buyers will offer below list price to try to get the best deal.

I agree that most people have no idea this market is sinking for many years. I’m thinking of a home-made bumper sticker that reads: Real Estate Market is Crashing – Sell Now and Don’t Buy Until 2008. Will anyone shoot me?

[powayseller]

Sarah Susanka’s The Not So Big House and other architecture books, carried by the major book retailers, emphasize quality over size. I used her ideas in designing my own house. She teaches how to make a house appear larger: open views from one end/corner to another, rooms differentiated by variying ceiling height instead of walls. She teaches that one space can serve several purposes: study center in dining room. Other ideas are having private spaces within a larger room by creating alcoves. You don’t need your own getaway room – you can carve yourself a small window seat in the living room, etc.

She advocates wood ceilings, timber beams, large windows, window seats, interesting roof lines, design of walkway/gate/entrance, patios. While her houses cost more per square foot, they are well designed and comfortable. I am more drawn to the quality of her house, than the big nameless McMansion, cold and lacking any imagination.

I’ve read that builders will return to crafting homes, with unique styles, to set themselves apart in this age of overbuilding.

I can certainly foresee that the next generation of homes will favor quality over size.

UPDATE: See The McMansion Glut WSJ 6/16/06

[powayseller]

It is possible that banks will go under as a result of excess real estate loans that go sour, but I don’t see any sign of Americans doubting the banking system. The banks can have a run on their money only if people make a run as a result of losing faith in the banks. It all works on trust.

If a bank fails, the government will print whatever money is necessary to bail out the banks. This printing will put the saver whole, and will affect all Americans, as excess money creation causes inflation. Again, FDI is a safe entitity, backed by the US government.

As far as gold, I would be so worried about someone stealing it. I suppose you put it in a fireproof safe?

Please tell me again where to buy the bullion or coins, as I wish to get a little bit. I will store it off-site, since my address and name are now public.

For various reasons, we should keep some cash and assets on hand, out of electronic accounts. The terrorists could incapacitate our electronic networks, or completely mess them up, or give out our private information for others to mess with, so I see the value of keeping some hard assets on hand. Besides, you cannot get taxed on dividends/appreciation on your gold.

[powayseller]

Yes. It’s part real estate research, part snooping. I actually know several of the Poway families who are in preforeclosure, and it was eye opening that families who’d lived in their homes since the 1980s, in very good neighborhoods, had spent the equity out of their homes. As a subscriber to realtytrac.com, I could see the deed and loan history of the properties back to the 1980s.

Foreclosure.com however does not give you the lien history, but updates the NOD to Inactive status when it is paid up.

[powayseller]

Alright, no more names. But full addresses for clarity.

[Author]

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