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powayseller
ParticipantI’m still edgy and my views haven’t changed. I just haven’t come across any good extremist stories lately. When I do, I will post them..
ParticipantA realtor’s friend got this from a Data Quick presentation. Does anyone else here know if this can be substantiated, or how to find out how many vacant homes there are?
Both homes for sale on my street are vacant.
ParticipantDoes it seem like sellers are almost urged to do a price reduction, just so their house gets a “hit” when the search is for houses with price reductions?
ParticipantI respect that Bugs and sdrealtor do not disclose their client confidential information. However, I took no such professional oath. I respect your compassion for these homeowners, but you cannot save them from the embarassment they are going to feel over their foreclosure and bankruptcies. I did not appreciate the “armchair analysis” comment from SDAppraiser; what is his problem with the analysis? I would think he would be upset with the incorrect data, rather than the person who looked it up.
balasr is in his right to post this information. Unlike me, he did not disclose full addresses or names. I find his and ocrenter’s posts interesting. I would post this same information.
I appreciate property information like this, because it helps me track the market. As I wrote before, if this information were available in the newspaper I wouldn’t need to snoop. Imagine the U-T, or Bugs or sdr giving us data (leaving out names and addresses) of the percentage of sellers that are underwater, the % of foreclosures, the borrowers who cannot meet their mortgage obligations. Then I wouldn’t need to snoop. I don’t expect you to prepare these reports for us, so the only way that folks outside the RE industry can see the market in action, is via foreclosure databases and ziprealty.com.
Homeowners with NODs know their status is public, and that NODs are published in local papers, scoured by foreclosure investors, and possibly their neighbors and friends. I would try my hardest to bring up the payments or sell the house to avoid the obvious consequences of default, and potential embarassment if people finding out.
I would like to know why the realtors and appraiser are protective of the sellers in trouble. We should spread this out for everyone to see, so people can learn and not make the same mistakes. This should be used to help other people, not hidden from the world, Please, I beg you, spread the word on these people. Personal stories are so much more powerful than charts or surveys.
ParticipantI have an idea for preventing squabbling. Let’s rely on the community to monitor its members. When Member1 writes an inappropriate remark about Member2, Member3 will write, “Member1, please stay on topic”, or some other polite request. Only one person would make this request, so there is no ganging up on Member1.
This strategy uses the power of group pressure to keep everyone behaving, knowing any fighting he starts will not be tolerated by the group. Member2, the offended person, trusts that the group is there for him and won’t retaliate, preventing escalating of squabbles.
Social behavior of anonymous internet forums is new to us. We’ve mastered social interactions in kindergarten, work, family, neighborhoods, and pleasant exchanges with other shoppers in the grovery store. We learned social cues and signals, proper responses. We sought to be be nice and polite, so people would like us.
Yet in this anonymous forum, being right often triumphs being nice. We intelligent and otherwise considerate adults are less clear about getting along online.
No hurt feelings if better ideas are offered…
ParticipantHey rockclimber, are you coming to the dinner get-together planned in July? I look forward to meeting you. I live near Henry’s.
I signed a 2-year lease on a townhouse at $1/sq ft (2200 sq ft, $2200). Plus I paid $1800 for half the A/C installation. I have a foreclosure clause in my contract, to get prorated reimbursement for the A/C in case of foreclosure. My landlord paid in around $475K for the place, so I doubt my rent covers the mortgage payment. I am sure he took out any equity available for his other real estate ventures, but he’s been in the RE biz for 20 years, so he has some stability. I hope.
I checked SFH rentals recently, and found many higher-priced homes in better neighborhoods. I assume they are either investors or people who moved and kept their homes in hopes of getting continued appreciation. Soon enough, both groups will realize the prices are dropping. Then: will they sell to get out what they can, or hold on until prices come back up?
Anyway, I realize I have a good deal with this rental. I am grateful for the 2 year lease.
ParticipantLereah didn’t give a seller education talk earlier this year, because he was still selling the spring bounce idea. This ended up hurting the realtors. He should have announced the soft landing would be accompanied by flat prices, instead of claiming single digit appreciation. If he had set seller expectations to reflect the changing market, perhaps sales would have declined only 5 or 10%.
I still believe sales would pick up if prices would go down. It’s a basic economics premise, that if the price is right, there is a buyer.
Participantburger007 – are you refinancing your 5 year ARM, or hoping that 2009 rates will be lower than today? An 8% cap, if it happens, could almost double your mortgage payment.
sdr – I think the inventory is climbing because sales are down, not because we have more listings. Because sales are down 25% – 30%, the new inventory is just piling on to the old inventory. Some sellers have to take their property off the market if they can’t get their hoped price. My neighbor falls into this category: after listing for 6 months and not getting the needed offer to buy his move-up home in Temecula, he had to stay put. He couldn’t bridge the gap without getting the top dollar.
Also keep in mind that while we had a population increase of 50K annually for 10 years, we are now seeing people leave: 44000 people in the year ending June 30, 2005. I read a different figure of 8K recently, so I don’t know which number is correct. But the trend is there, and likely to pick up as jobs are lost.
So people are leaving, occupancy rates are decreasing, vacancies are rising, and the sales price goes down. Remember too that builders are still adding to the inventory. When will this ever stop???
Bottom line: inventory is rising because sales are down by 30%. Sales are down due to the loss of population. Each sale lost affects several other home sales lost. With 44K people leaving, or 15K families, that’s about 8K home sales lost.
Docteur – when comparing to the last downturn, factor in the tax law change that allows people to pocket up to $500K of tax free gain. This encourages home sales more than in the past. Also remember the ARMs and the pressure put on borrowers who have loans at 33% of income, and now that payment goes up 35%. Ouch – what to do? Add the reversal of population, slowing economy, and I see a trend for more inventory.
I heard that 30% of homes are vacant, from a friend who attended a Data Quick meeting. Add some other percentage to represent the 40% of ARM buyers in recent years, and we have a solid base of sellers who are not testing the waters, but trying to get out while they can.
sdr – I give you permission to discuss my ideas, opinions, and analysis, but not my personal life. Why would you call my house location a meth capital? Perhaps Lakeside, 9 miles away, has some meth labs? My property was closer to Poway than Lakeside. By the way, Poway has the most open space and lowest crime rate in the County.
For anyone considering selling their home, I will correct a statement made about me. We sold it purely for the money. After the move, I came to love this rental house and the advantages of renting.
I disagree about the advice of “buying the gap in a better market (less inventory)”. First, you cannot buy/sell to your advantage in the same market. You either benefit as the seller, or as the buyer, but not both. Less inventory means you have the seller’s advantage when you sell, but you will not have the buyer’s advantage when you buy. It’s either a seller’s market, or a buyer’s market.
Second, although inventory may drop off in the fall, so will sales. The market will keep getting worse, because sales will drop even faster than inventory, and the DOM will keep going down. Some day, the market will get better, but we are at least 5 years away from that.
I agree it is better to wait to buy up to get the lower tax base.
OTOH, interest rates may keep going up. We could end up with a federal funds rate of 7% or 8%. With worldwide inflation increasing, the dollar losing value (which makes imports more expensive) and commodity prices rising, the Fed may have to raise a lot to keep inflation in control.
ParticipantCFO, I’ve heard a solution is to make health insurance a true insurance, rather than a plan that pays for all expenses. It should cover only catastrophic expenses, not simple office visits and lab tests. The US spends more per person on health care than any other country in the world, but our mortality rate is higher.
The US aims to bring top quality health care to every person, but that is not feasible. Not everyone can have a Cadillac. Some people must drive an Escort. Similarly, not everyone can expect access to the best cardiac or cancer surgeons. If we redesign the system (this has been written about at length elsewhere), employers and employees will win.
I know this isn’t housing related, but the increasing poverty of the middle class which has been temporarily alleviated by the housing bubble, will become once again apparent, and it breaks my heart.
June 24, 2006 at 9:44 PM in reply to: Housing market affected?? Nokia ends Sanyo venture plan, to ramp down CDMA #27358ParticipantNancy, what industry are you in, and what are the statistics? Do you see outsourcing or people leaving San Diego?
The May 2006 Labor Market Info report shows PBS decreasing. This is the category that the UCLA Anderson Forecast saw as the ray of hope for San Diego, because of some prior gains in the year. Now this category is decreasing. Hmmmm, what is the ray of hope for San Diego? And are the job openings mentioned above in S/W actual openings, or just some classifieds placed so they can keep looking for some future opening? What is the actual change in software engineer positions over the last few months? Do you think they are having a hard time finding people to move here, as we discussed with Qualcomm?
Why is the person above not getting hired for one of these 693 job openings – low pay, not qualified enough? Can all of you elaborate?
ParticipantYour concern is admirable, and part of a larger social problem. Perhaps you can think of some solution, and propose it to the governor.
ParticipantI am nosy, too. I checked the tax assessor site to find out how many late tax filers exist on my street, and I regularly check foreclosure.com for NOD and auctions on Poway homes. When I still had my Realtytrac.com membership, I snooped even more: I looked at the lien history of the NODs (foreclosure.com doesn’t provide it).
Sometimes the databases we check are not accurate. Then we get false information. This is too bad, but I think we should point the finger at the database, not at the snooper.
I quit my realtytrac.com subscription due to their inaccuracy. Whenever a homeowner brought his NOD up to date, realtytrac did not list it as Inactive. I let them know why I quit my membership.
Tracking the falling prices and NODs is a great way to track the declining market, and to find out how people got themselves into these situations.
If this were reported in the newspapers, I wouldn’t need to spend this time researching, uhm, I mean snooping…
ParticipantBarry at the Big Picture (bubble blogger link) explained that the housing starts only make a trend with 6 months of data. This one month is considered an outlier. I expect to see a much lower starts figure for June.
sdr, if you don’t believe in data, what are you doing over here? What do you think of Rich’s data?
ParticipantThe above post was copied from Fleck’s site. You’ll have to contact him there, since he has never posted here.
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