[poorgradstudent]

I’ll go with: 2) The teenager didn’t cheat, exactly, but he “shaded the letter of the law” (or custom, in this case)

I imagine no one would have noticed or cared if it was part of the father’s transaction. Or, if the teenager had been on their own, unloaded their own full basket, realized they forgot milk or eggs, ran to get some while the cashier began ringing (although many grocery stores are happy to send someone to grab it for you).

The dad should have just thrown them on his transaction and either covered it or had the teenager give him cash. But I wouldn’t have been bothered by it.

[poorgradstudent]

I’ll go with: 2) The teenager didn’t cheat, exactly, but he “shaded the letter of the law” (or custom, in this case)

I imagine no one would have noticed or cared if it was part of the father’s transaction. Or, if the teenager had been on their own, unloaded their own full basket, realized they forgot milk or eggs, ran to get some while the cashier began ringing (although many grocery stores are happy to send someone to grab it for you).

The dad should have just thrown them on his transaction and either covered it or had the teenager give him cash. But I wouldn’t have been bothered by it.

[poorgradstudent]

I’ll go with: 2) The teenager didn’t cheat, exactly, but he “shaded the letter of the law” (or custom, in this case)

I imagine no one would have noticed or cared if it was part of the father’s transaction. Or, if the teenager had been on their own, unloaded their own full basket, realized they forgot milk or eggs, ran to get some while the cashier began ringing (although many grocery stores are happy to send someone to grab it for you).

The dad should have just thrown them on his transaction and either covered it or had the teenager give him cash. But I wouldn’t have been bothered by it.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.

Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.

Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.

Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.

I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.

Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.

Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.

Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.

I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.

Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.

Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.

Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.

I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.

Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.

Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.

Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.

I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.

[poorgradstudent]

[quote=meadandale]We still have high unemployment and a looming debt crisis at all levels of government that is being virtually ignored.

Any call of a bottom is extremely premature and certainly qualifies as ‘irrational exuberance’.[/quote]
Then call me “Irrationally Exhuberant”.

Employment is a lagging indicator. And Rich has posted several graphs showing that employment is improving. The second derivative is positive, and there’s some evidence there may actually have been job growth in the past month or two. Unemployment is still very, very high, but it has flatlined in recent months, another indicator we’re probably at a bottom.

Booms don’t last forever, and neither do busts. The tea leaves are still a little muddy, but what I’m seeing from all the numbers is we almost certainly bottomed in Jan or Feb 2010. This does mean we’re only 1-2 months into what is shaping up to be a slow recovery, and still in pretty bad shape. 19,500 feet below sea level is better than 20,000 feet, but it’s still pretty deep.

I’ll throw in one caveat that San Diego *housing* may not have hit a true bottom yet. As other threads have pointed out, artificially low interest rates and tax credits are propping it up, and if those end it may cause another dip.

[poorgradstudent]

I can speak for myself and say that there are purchases and spending I could delay 6 months or a year but can’t put off indefinitely. Low spending generates pent up demand. Non-emergency Car repairs, dental work, new shoes, replacing jeans, and many other expenses fall into the category of essential but not urgent (as opposed to food, gasoline, toilet paper and other urgent expenses). I’m sure most people have put off at least some expenses that have moved from the “essential but not urgent” pile to the “urgent” pile.

Also, consumer sentiment is improving partially because of real improvement in the economy. Things are still pretty crummy, but by all indicators it looks like we bottomed out around January ’10. At this point there really is no where to go but up.

[poorgradstudent]

I can speak for myself and say that there are purchases and spending I could delay 6 months or a year but can’t put off indefinitely. Low spending generates pent up demand. Non-emergency Car repairs, dental work, new shoes, replacing jeans, and many other expenses fall into the category of essential but not urgent (as opposed to food, gasoline, toilet paper and other urgent expenses). I’m sure most people have put off at least some expenses that have moved from the “essential but not urgent” pile to the “urgent” pile.

Also, consumer sentiment is improving partially because of real improvement in the economy. Things are still pretty crummy, but by all indicators it looks like we bottomed out around January ’10. At this point there really is no where to go but up.

[poorgradstudent]

I can speak for myself and say that there are purchases and spending I could delay 6 months or a year but can’t put off indefinitely. Low spending generates pent up demand. Non-emergency Car repairs, dental work, new shoes, replacing jeans, and many other expenses fall into the category of essential but not urgent (as opposed to food, gasoline, toilet paper and other urgent expenses). I’m sure most people have put off at least some expenses that have moved from the “essential but not urgent” pile to the “urgent” pile.

Also, consumer sentiment is improving partially because of real improvement in the economy. Things are still pretty crummy, but by all indicators it looks like we bottomed out around January ’10. At this point there really is no where to go but up.

[poorgradstudent]

I can speak for myself and say that there are purchases and spending I could delay 6 months or a year but can’t put off indefinitely. Low spending generates pent up demand. Non-emergency Car repairs, dental work, new shoes, replacing jeans, and many other expenses fall into the category of essential but not urgent (as opposed to food, gasoline, toilet paper and other urgent expenses). I’m sure most people have put off at least some expenses that have moved from the “essential but not urgent” pile to the “urgent” pile.

Also, consumer sentiment is improving partially because of real improvement in the economy. Things are still pretty crummy, but by all indicators it looks like we bottomed out around January ’10. At this point there really is no where to go but up.

[poorgradstudent]

I can speak for myself and say that there are purchases and spending I could delay 6 months or a year but can’t put off indefinitely. Low spending generates pent up demand. Non-emergency Car repairs, dental work, new shoes, replacing jeans, and many other expenses fall into the category of essential but not urgent (as opposed to food, gasoline, toilet paper and other urgent expenses). I’m sure most people have put off at least some expenses that have moved from the “essential but not urgent” pile to the “urgent” pile.

Also, consumer sentiment is improving partially because of real improvement in the economy. Things are still pretty crummy, but by all indicators it looks like we bottomed out around January ’10. At this point there really is no where to go but up.

[poorgradstudent]

I agree that it probably propped up the low end more than the high end. 8k is a much bigger deal for a 200k house than a 800k house. I don’t think $20k is reasonable. A buyer who is considering a home worth 400k before the tax credit isn’t going to pay 420k + 8k cash. The average buyer probably wants to feel like they are getting something out of the deal beyond time value of money.

I’m guessing the high end saw about a $6-8k boost, and the low end $8-10k. It’s tough, because you almost have to assume all buyers are rational, and the bubble taught us that the opposite is often true in real estate.

[poorgradstudent]

I agree that it probably propped up the low end more than the high end. 8k is a much bigger deal for a 200k house than a 800k house. I don’t think $20k is reasonable. A buyer who is considering a home worth 400k before the tax credit isn’t going to pay 420k + 8k cash. The average buyer probably wants to feel like they are getting something out of the deal beyond time value of money.

I’m guessing the high end saw about a $6-8k boost, and the low end $8-10k. It’s tough, because you almost have to assume all buyers are rational, and the bubble taught us that the opposite is often true in real estate.

[Author]

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