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October 27, 2020 at 12:44 PM in reply to: o/t The Great Reset — COVID-19 and the riots part of a larger plan? #820007
phaster
Participantcontinued
looking at the worst case numbers prop 15 will raise $8 billion minus $1 billion in set-up costs (according to CA assessors) leaving 7 billion net
now .6 x 7 billion = 4.2 billion “admin” fees
bottom line what remains is 2.8 billion for education
looking at the population of this state
https://censusreporter.org/profiles/04000US06-california/
an estimated number of those in the school age is bracket is approximately 39512223*(.12+.13)= 9,878,055
so 2800000000/(9878055*(.12+.13)) is,… about a ballpark of just over a thousand dollars more per student (during the initial 5 year period after prop 15 passage) AND in the meantime there will be accelerated job loses perhaps much greater than what has already happened (which most likely will really hurt those on the low end of the income ladder,… i.e. women and black owned business) which is basically why the NAACP has said prop 15 isn’t a good idea (BUT has lots of teacher union backing)
NOTE FDR a democratic “hero” recognized public employee unions are a bad idea,…
[quote]
All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management. The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations. The employer is the whole people, who speak by means of laws enacted by their representatives in Congress. Accordingly, administrative officials and employees alike are governed and guided, and in many instances restricted, by laws which establish policies, procedures, or rules in personnel matters.Particularly, I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place in the functions of any organization of Government employees. Upon employees in the Federal service rests the obligation to serve the whole people, whose interests and welfare require orderliness and continuity in the conduct of Government activities. This obligation is paramount. Since their own services have to do with the functioning of the Government, a strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied.
Participantinteresting comments by grantham
WRT the pandemic agree that americans by in large do not have much discipline (and the number of deaths in the USA is a reflection)
WRT his thoughts on “debt” disagree
@53:10 yet from a u.s point of view looking at internal debt it’s totally irrelevant
this is because I wonder about the economic drag and social disruption caused by pension debt obligations owed public union workers,… to illustrate an example consider prop 15 (risk vs reward) by the numbers,…
[quote]
A record number of companies are leaving California for states with a better business climate, and a new report shows that Texas remains their No. 1 destination.The study estimates that 1,800 relocation or “disinvestment events” occurred in 2016, the most recent year available, setting a record yearly high going back to 2008. About 13,000 companies left the state during that nine-year period.
During the study period, 275,000 jobs and $76.7 billion in capital funds were diverted out of California.
If voters approve Proposition 15 in November, a state analyst says it will generate between $8 billion and $12.5 billion in new tax revenues for the state each year.
According to the measure, 60% of the money would go to local governments and 40% would go to schools, including K through 12 and community colleges.
Since 2017 The California Assessors’ Association (CAA), has monitored and analyzed the administrative complexities and estimated costs of implementing two proposed initiatives commonly referred to as “split-roll initiatives.” These initiatives generally would require regular reassessment of Commercial and Industrial property at current market value, and would eliminate Proposition 13 protections for significant numbers of those properties. “TheCaliforniaSchoolsandLocalCommunitiesFundingActof 2020”, the most recent version of “Split-Roll” has now qualified for the November 3, 2020 ballot.
• Cost to implement is projected at $1.01 Billion during the three-year phase in period
• Implementation would require a trained workforce that is not available today and would not be available for many years.
…given the immense anticipated Statewide implementation costs and complexities, as well as the disparate impacts to the various California counties we are compelled to oppose this initiative. The California Assessors’ Association advises a no vote on The California Schools and Local Communities Funding Act of 2020 (initiative No. 19-0008-Amendment 1) on the November 3, 2020 ballot.
October 21, 2020 at 4:47 PM in reply to: Investment positioning for Dem Sweep and Super-Stimulus #819972Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]
Split calif. In 2., more reps.
[/quote]as messed up as political mis-management is in California is, its large size is actually a good thing in some cases
consider by virtue of its size, California can point the USA as well as the rest of the world toward the future of consumer products (i.e. electric cars) that will be needed to address ever growing CO2 emissions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/23/california-electric-cars/
right now both major political parties are too extreme and on leadership on both sides has their head where the sun don’t shine
what I’d like to see (and what this country needs more than ever) is fiscal conservatives who actually understand the basic science of climate change AND have the political will to face up to the harsh truth
Participant[quote=gzz]I can say, with 100% certainty, that Prop 15 will CUT my property taxes by at least $160 per year.
One of its provisions:
“The business tangible personal property tax on equipment and fixtures for small businesses is eliminated.”
This an extremely stupid tax where every year I get a letter from the county asking me to value my business’s office equipment, computers, etc, and then pay 1% of it.
It reality, my business’s various well used PCs and old desks and chairs are not worth $16,000. But I am not fighting over the “suggested” assessment the County sent me, so I just pay the $160 every year.
The reason why this tax is so stupid is the large amount of paperwork involved over petty amounts. It is a bit like making a 16 year old with a part time minimum wage job fill out a full 1040 plus the AMT worksheet.[/quote]
if you think its bad now this will be considered the good times if this clusterfuck passes
FYI the association of CA assessors mentioned they are against this mess because they estimate it will take a billion dollars to implement and they say it won’t work
AND that does not take into account the non-linear response of jobs and capital leaving the state because of uncertainty
since a picture is worth a thousand words
FYI the two URLs listed in the graphic image are redirects to PDFs I’ve posted on GoogleDocs (that contain all the full text studies like the association of CA assessors, etc.)
http://www.TinyURL.com/CalifSmallBusiness
http://www.TinyURL.com/SplitRollParticipant[quote=evolusd]I’ve financed a ton of commercial properties around California over the years and will tell you that if an owner’s annual property tax expense increases materially, they’re going to find any way they can to share that cost with someone else, most logical person being the tenant. NNN leases are very common in commercial property and it will be on the tenant, who is responsible for paying the property tax, to negotiate with the landlord to change the lease. Obviously this will be subject to supply & demand forces. Retail & office where demand is currently soft the tenants are in a better negotiating position, but for apartments and industrial properties where demand is high and vacancy rates are low, you better believe tenant rent or NNN costs are going up.[/quote]
sadly have a really bad feeling prop 15 will pass and that this decision will put this states economy in a tailspin
I base this opinion given main street voter resentment sentiment ALONG w/ the inability of most to think two or three steps ahead of various knock on effects
sectors that IMHO will most likely be hit hard again (as if covid was not bad enough) by the “split roll” will be misc food services (small corner markets and various restaurants), small businesses w/ NNN leases (in strip malls and industrial parks), small farms, etc.
I’ve read,…
[quote]
San Diego is home to over 7000 restaurants, 500 hotels and there are roughly 186,000 employed in the industry. The average cost of living for a Single Parent with One Child is $55,000. The average Industry pay for a full time employee is $28,849.
[/quote]AND FWIW in a TV news segment that reports on a restaurant business, the SD county tax assessor mentions half of the commercial/industrial properties in SD will be affected by higher property taxes because of “split roll” (which in turn will have effects on employment rates)
NOTE supporters say,…
[quote]
Study finds Prop 15 won’t be damaging to small businesseswhere the “study” itself (by beacon economics) highlighted the point(s),…
[quote]
A random sample of about 22,000 commercial property transactions in California’s major population centers from 2018 to 2020 found that two-thirds sold for less than $3 million. The median price was $1.6 million.OPPONENTS ARGUE THAT THE LEGISLATION WOULD:
• Be the largest property tax increase in the state’s history: The legislation would lead to a substantial tax increase ($12.5 billion per annum) on commercial and industrial entities. This would hurt small businesses, the agricultural industry, residential homeowners, and consumers.
• Raise the cost of living: The tax increases would cause businesses to increase the cost of groceries, health-care, energy, and other products and services. Some residents would be priced out of their communities, and the legislation would have detrimental impacts on low-income communities.
• Destroy jobs and small businesses: The legislation does not prevent increased taxes from being passed on to small businesses.
• Increase taxes on farms: The legislation would increase property taxes on the farming sector (barns, dairies, food processing plants, and cultivation sites), which would raise food prices.
• Enable the legislature to increase homeowners’ property taxes: Business owners who operate from their homes would pay higher taxes.
The merits of these claims notwithstanding, both sides agree that Prop. 15 would increase property tax revenue.
https://beaconecon.com/blog/prop_15_analysis_context_and_conclusions_10_02_2020/
[/quote]I’m not an economist but IMHO a better series of questions to ask would be, how many commercial/industrial properties are there in CA AND after that number is determined how many of the properties will be subject to split/roll “market” property tax (seems only after this basis info is known, can a cost/benefit analysis be done)
FWIW the reason I think this is the better approach to look at cost/benefit analysis of prop 15 is because this method accounts for long term successful businesses w/ high paying and skilled jobs (like Robinson helicopter up in Torrance)
this home grown company makes big expensive aerospace products here in CA and ships products around the world
then there is the mandate for California to eliminate ICE by 2035,…
California will ban sale of new ICE cars in 2035. Why not sooner?
w/ a “split roll” another home grown company TESLA that builds products that will be in much greater demand in the future, is going also going to face additional financial head winds producing products in state
[sarcasm on]
brilliant
[sarcasm off]
bottom line the beacon economics study to support prop 15 is worthless because it does not take into account successful profitable businesses that don’t sell (in the short two year sample size of RE sales of commercial/industrial properties pointed out in the beacon economic “study”)
Participant[quote=gzz]Prop 15 will generally not lead to rent increases on small businesses.
Rents are determined by supply and demand for rentable space, NOT BY COSTS.[/quote]
ever consider the really BIG picture of climate change where the jobs of the future are going to in the green sector????
(for example tesla which has a factory in Fremont CA)
truth be told prop 15 is a bleeding heart liberal political hack job that was written so that masses are distracted by inequities in property tax payments (AND that increased funds from higher property taxes will go to improve schools)
FWIW owners of apt buildings seem to be classified as “residential” (listen to a podcast by the santa clara tax assessor)
[quote]
At 06:43…this one is a convoluted terrible initiative and the problem with it is for political reasons they are trying to exclude different types of properties
for example (and mostly for political reasons) they exempt apartments which are income properties
[/quote]anyway as you said,… Prop 15 will generally not lead to rent increases on small businesses,… huh?!
just would like to point out, seems on the upper end of commercial/industrial of the real estate spectrum prop 15 will raise the property tax on tesla which has a factory in Fremont CA which in turn might force the company to look else where (just like high business costs forced buck knives out of el cajon years ago)
on the lower end of the commercial/industrial of the real estate spectrum prop 15 will raise the property tax on smaller mom and pop ag businesses (which is why the California Farm Bureau Federation is opposed)
given this forum now let’s consider the head pigg himself “rich” @ pacific capital
just a naïve guess but the building in which his business is located at:
4747 Viewridge Ave
Suite 107
San Diego, CA 92123most likely will be reassessed at a higher “market value” property tax if prop 15 passes and the higher costs will be passed along to “rich”
OTOH the social justice warrior Prop 15 property tax increase most likely will cause some small business owners to move,… so decreased demand might make landlords stuck w/ commercial office space willing to eat the reassessed at a higher “market value” property tax OR decreased demand in office space might actually lower the investor demand for commercial office space (which will drive down prices investors are willing to pay)
in the past I thought LIBTARD was an unnecessary pejorative but looking at the details of prop 15, seems an apt adjective for this voter proposition
Participantya think it’s bad now, just wait!!!
[quote]
California Legislators Propose 0.4% Wealth Tax, Plus 16.8% Income Tax Rateincluded in the PDF is an article in the voice of SD that states
[quote]
…recent numbers seem encouraging, though we don’t know what happened in 2012 or 2013. But over the more than 20 years the database tracks, San Diego actually lost more businesses than it gained.http://www.TinyURL.com/SplitRoll
[/quote]also if thumb through the PDF you’ll also see an article about a business that use to be based here in (buck knives) which is a case study why there is more outflow than inflow of businesses in SD
did a web search “prop 15 small business” and found others urging caution because this prop is going to hurt small business and farming operations,…
[quote]
…Agriculture land is exempt, too, although not necessarily property improvements — such as orchards, vineyards, barns and irrigation systems. The California Farm Bureau Federation is opposed.…Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable, argues that with the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent deep recession, “now is absolutely the worst time to enact the largest property tax increase in California history.”
“Small businesses are struggling to survive, trying to get reestablished,” Lapsley says. “If this thing passes, many people will not even try to reopen. Just forget it.”
political conservatives don’t believe man made global warming is happening because of their worldview (yet science tells us that mankind is indeed changing the climate)
http://www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
point being political liberals because of their world view are more likely to likely to favor taxes because their priority is leveling the playing field
the harsh truth is passage of prop 15 is going to make things worse off for everyone one especially those on the lower end of the economic ladder
[quote]
Why is Mark Zuckerberg spending millions to back harmful Proposition 15?By ALICE HUFFMAN and TECOY PORTER
PUBLISHED: October 5, 2020 at 8:52 a.m.…In publicly highlighting the campaign contribution, the Facebook founder made a conscious effort to point out – erroneously – that Prop. 15 was “designed to generate and stabilize funding for vulnerable communities…and would put funding directly into the hands of counties across California who are on the frontlines of the pandemic response.”
…Prop. 15 won’t solve any immediate funding crisis and will make the long-term crisis worse for many rural counties. Prop 15 will not be fully implemented until 2025, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO). The measure does not provide immediate relief for government budgets affected by COVID-19. Additionally, the LAO clearly stated, “Not all governments would be guaranteed new money. Some in rural areas may end up losing money.” So, to state or imply that communities hurting from COVID-19 now will benefit if Prop. 15 passes in November is not only misleading, but it’s also just plain wrong.
Prop. 15 would have a significant and negative impact on the “vulnerable communities” that the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative claims it wants to protect. Minority businesses are already struggling. They were prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and are even more so since it shut down California’s economy.
Data analyzed by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research found a 41 percent drop in the number of Black business owners between February and April 2020. Latino-owned businesses sunk by 32 percent and Asian-owned businesses decreased by 26 percent.
Despite these staggering numbers, Prop. 15 would raise rents on the surviving businesses during an unprecedented economic crisis.
…One study even concludes 120,000 private-sector jobs will be lost – and that was before the pandemic.
Alice Huffman is president of the California NAACP. Tecoy Porter is the president of the California State National Action Network.
Why is Mark Zuckerberg spending millions to back harmful Proposition 15?
[/quote]Participantpassage of prop 15 will do nothing to lessen income tax
http://www.TinyURL.com/SplitRoll
I know the whole PDF I’ve posted on GoogleDocs is lots of material to read but one of the key small details mentioned (by an elected bay area democratic) is,…
[quote]
But Wiener added that it could be difficult to fix Prop 13 for another reason: if commercial real estate is taxed at higher rates than residential properties, it might exacerbate the fiscalization of land use that has disincentivized cities from building new housing. This could worsen the state’s housing crisis, said Wiener.there is the expression the devil in in the details, and the reason I highlighted the PDF is because odds are if this passes more jobs will be lost than gained AND small businesses will be the ones to suffer the most (and truth be told the big underlying unaddressed problem is off balance sheet pension costs)
ParticipantTRUMPs worldview is built upon the power of positive thinking (there is a frontline program points this fact out)
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-choice-2020-trump-vs-biden/
so IMHO it does not make sense that he would admit having an infection that he has likened to the common flu
also as I see things if TRUMP is no longer POTUS, he faces an “existential threat” w/ the NYT report that 400+ million is due next year,… IOW he no longer will be able to milk political office for benefits OR stay the execution of his debt being called
Participant
‘October Surprise’
Participantby election time hopefully many diehard partisans will realize TRUMP perfectly embodies all seven deadly sins
LUST consider his treatment of woman
https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a19573456/trump-karen-mcdougal-ivanka/
GLUTTONY for power and loves being the center of attention
GREED for power and money
SLOTH basically has demonstrated being too lazy to ever learn any real facts
WRATH directed at anyone like scientists who try to point out the truth on topics like climate change
http://www.ThereIsNoPlanet-B.org
ENVY of people who inspire others
Michael Cohen: Trump hates Obama because he’s everything he ‘wants to be’
and
PRIDE tweeted more than once of being a stable genius
also hope all the progressives take a step back and put their strong emotions for #BLM protests aside and put their energies into getting out the vote so at least there is a big/clear margin of victory
personally as an “independent” for decades, have not been pleased w/ candidates from either major party, but in this upcoming election I see Biden as the clear choice of being the lessor of two evils
guess all one can do is vote early via mail AND from Oct 31 onward unplug from all social-infotainment
as I see things there is NO benefit worrying about the outcome of an election after you vote
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor]Am I the only one who finds these posts unreadable?[/quote]
Its art.
I get a sense of a vision.[/quote]
vision is intended to be thought provoking humor about society/politics (as such not everyone might appreciate the joke or commentary)
ParticipantWhat money buys:
…some purchase software (i.e. photoshop)
to create composite images like,…
others purchase stuff like peace of mind (i.e. silence)
…stuff like goodwill (i.e. perception of charity)
https://apnews.com/635b828ded6813ea66783869f32876c5
…stuff like a means to an end (i.e. political office)
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/magazine/donald-trump-american-preacher.html
the downside being, money buys lives
(bottom line) lives on a yuge scale
https://mashable.com/article/cold-blob-atlantic-ocean-climate-change/
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]
All that effort to get your guy on the bench, all the money, and he basically takes a giant crap on every evangelical church in the nation, essentially telling them G-d doesnt hate fags and you cant fire them.Haha,suck it christians!!!
Todays score america 1, christian bullshit 0.[/quote]
perhaps the pandemic, the supreme court ruling, etc., is the wrath of god upon the world for christians worshiping money, christians not tolerating homosexuals, etc., etc., etc!
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