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peterb
ParticipantI just did a quick scan of 3 bedroom homes for rent in Temecula for $2000 and under on Craiglist. There were 443 of them available. I did the same thing for the city of SD. SD had 645 of them. SD has 1.1M people and is an employment center. What is Temecula’s population and employment capabilities? Does it warrent being 2/3 of the city of SD?
I dont know, just asking. Seems high to me. But I dont honestly know. Maybe Temecula is just a lot cheaper place to live? Probably. For people who live there, does 443 sound like a lot?ParticipantI just did a quick scan of 3 bedroom homes for rent in Temecula for $2000 and under on Craiglist. There were 443 of them available. I did the same thing for the city of SD. SD had 645 of them. SD has 1.1M people and is an employment center. What is Temecula’s population and employment capabilities? Does it warrent being 2/3 of the city of SD?
I dont know, just asking. Seems high to me. But I dont honestly know. Maybe Temecula is just a lot cheaper place to live? Probably. For people who live there, does 443 sound like a lot?ParticipantI just did a quick scan of 3 bedroom homes for rent in Temecula for $2000 and under on Craiglist. There were 443 of them available. I did the same thing for the city of SD. SD had 645 of them. SD has 1.1M people and is an employment center. What is Temecula’s population and employment capabilities? Does it warrent being 2/3 of the city of SD?
I dont know, just asking. Seems high to me. But I dont honestly know. Maybe Temecula is just a lot cheaper place to live? Probably. For people who live there, does 443 sound like a lot?ParticipantTG, I dont think of myself as bearish, just rational. I’ve made plenty of money buying and selling residential RE over the years. And I’ve been a landlord. For me, it sucks. But for some, it works. And if you can hold a property in CA for 10 or more years, your odds are very good to make some great returns or have a great cash cow. But vacancies, repairs and tenants from hell can sour you for life.
Having said all this, if you can cash flow 30% or more positive, you’re probably in good shape to weather some tough times.My one caveat to all of this is that this is a credit contraction and not a normal recession. It could get a lot worse from here. If I thought this was an early 1990’s scenario recession, I would be one of the people going “all in” right now as well. But I dont think it is. This has been much more severe and much faster than I ever imagined it would be. This causes me great concern. Although it doesnt “feel” different to me yet, the numbers tell me otherwise. The research I’ve done indicates unemployment as the number one factor or indicator of RE price direction in CA. At anything above 7%, it starts to fall. Unemployment going from 6% to 10% 4 months ago… has got to be a record. 30% of all SD county mortgages upside down…has got to be a record. 12% of all mortgages going into non-performing status….has got to be a record.
I could start to site demographics as well, but I think you get my drift at this point. IMO, this is going to be a record level contraction. So, I’m keeping my powder dry for a while yet.There’s an old saying from the Great Depression, “The smart money was all lost after the 1929 crash.”. I would caution people to not be too smart here.
ParticipantTG, I dont think of myself as bearish, just rational. I’ve made plenty of money buying and selling residential RE over the years. And I’ve been a landlord. For me, it sucks. But for some, it works. And if you can hold a property in CA for 10 or more years, your odds are very good to make some great returns or have a great cash cow. But vacancies, repairs and tenants from hell can sour you for life.
Having said all this, if you can cash flow 30% or more positive, you’re probably in good shape to weather some tough times.My one caveat to all of this is that this is a credit contraction and not a normal recession. It could get a lot worse from here. If I thought this was an early 1990’s scenario recession, I would be one of the people going “all in” right now as well. But I dont think it is. This has been much more severe and much faster than I ever imagined it would be. This causes me great concern. Although it doesnt “feel” different to me yet, the numbers tell me otherwise. The research I’ve done indicates unemployment as the number one factor or indicator of RE price direction in CA. At anything above 7%, it starts to fall. Unemployment going from 6% to 10% 4 months ago… has got to be a record. 30% of all SD county mortgages upside down…has got to be a record. 12% of all mortgages going into non-performing status….has got to be a record.
I could start to site demographics as well, but I think you get my drift at this point. IMO, this is going to be a record level contraction. So, I’m keeping my powder dry for a while yet.There’s an old saying from the Great Depression, “The smart money was all lost after the 1929 crash.”. I would caution people to not be too smart here.
ParticipantTG, I dont think of myself as bearish, just rational. I’ve made plenty of money buying and selling residential RE over the years. And I’ve been a landlord. For me, it sucks. But for some, it works. And if you can hold a property in CA for 10 or more years, your odds are very good to make some great returns or have a great cash cow. But vacancies, repairs and tenants from hell can sour you for life.
Having said all this, if you can cash flow 30% or more positive, you’re probably in good shape to weather some tough times.My one caveat to all of this is that this is a credit contraction and not a normal recession. It could get a lot worse from here. If I thought this was an early 1990’s scenario recession, I would be one of the people going “all in” right now as well. But I dont think it is. This has been much more severe and much faster than I ever imagined it would be. This causes me great concern. Although it doesnt “feel” different to me yet, the numbers tell me otherwise. The research I’ve done indicates unemployment as the number one factor or indicator of RE price direction in CA. At anything above 7%, it starts to fall. Unemployment going from 6% to 10% 4 months ago… has got to be a record. 30% of all SD county mortgages upside down…has got to be a record. 12% of all mortgages going into non-performing status….has got to be a record.
I could start to site demographics as well, but I think you get my drift at this point. IMO, this is going to be a record level contraction. So, I’m keeping my powder dry for a while yet.There’s an old saying from the Great Depression, “The smart money was all lost after the 1929 crash.”. I would caution people to not be too smart here.
ParticipantTG, I dont think of myself as bearish, just rational. I’ve made plenty of money buying and selling residential RE over the years. And I’ve been a landlord. For me, it sucks. But for some, it works. And if you can hold a property in CA for 10 or more years, your odds are very good to make some great returns or have a great cash cow. But vacancies, repairs and tenants from hell can sour you for life.
Having said all this, if you can cash flow 30% or more positive, you’re probably in good shape to weather some tough times.My one caveat to all of this is that this is a credit contraction and not a normal recession. It could get a lot worse from here. If I thought this was an early 1990’s scenario recession, I would be one of the people going “all in” right now as well. But I dont think it is. This has been much more severe and much faster than I ever imagined it would be. This causes me great concern. Although it doesnt “feel” different to me yet, the numbers tell me otherwise. The research I’ve done indicates unemployment as the number one factor or indicator of RE price direction in CA. At anything above 7%, it starts to fall. Unemployment going from 6% to 10% 4 months ago… has got to be a record. 30% of all SD county mortgages upside down…has got to be a record. 12% of all mortgages going into non-performing status….has got to be a record.
I could start to site demographics as well, but I think you get my drift at this point. IMO, this is going to be a record level contraction. So, I’m keeping my powder dry for a while yet.There’s an old saying from the Great Depression, “The smart money was all lost after the 1929 crash.”. I would caution people to not be too smart here.
ParticipantTG, I dont think of myself as bearish, just rational. I’ve made plenty of money buying and selling residential RE over the years. And I’ve been a landlord. For me, it sucks. But for some, it works. And if you can hold a property in CA for 10 or more years, your odds are very good to make some great returns or have a great cash cow. But vacancies, repairs and tenants from hell can sour you for life.
Having said all this, if you can cash flow 30% or more positive, you’re probably in good shape to weather some tough times.My one caveat to all of this is that this is a credit contraction and not a normal recession. It could get a lot worse from here. If I thought this was an early 1990’s scenario recession, I would be one of the people going “all in” right now as well. But I dont think it is. This has been much more severe and much faster than I ever imagined it would be. This causes me great concern. Although it doesnt “feel” different to me yet, the numbers tell me otherwise. The research I’ve done indicates unemployment as the number one factor or indicator of RE price direction in CA. At anything above 7%, it starts to fall. Unemployment going from 6% to 10% 4 months ago… has got to be a record. 30% of all SD county mortgages upside down…has got to be a record. 12% of all mortgages going into non-performing status….has got to be a record.
I could start to site demographics as well, but I think you get my drift at this point. IMO, this is going to be a record level contraction. So, I’m keeping my powder dry for a while yet.There’s an old saying from the Great Depression, “The smart money was all lost after the 1929 crash.”. I would caution people to not be too smart here.
ParticipantWell, at least you can live in a house. Stocks make lousy homes. Also, if you could actually pay-off the house….what’s the value of not paying rent or mortgage to live somewhere as your income reduces in later life?
But taxes and “fees” are rising as is unemployment and foreclosures. The game is still in very early innings yet. Gaurd your cash and watch the show. I have a feeling the last half of 2009 is going to have some great fireworks.ParticipantWell, at least you can live in a house. Stocks make lousy homes. Also, if you could actually pay-off the house….what’s the value of not paying rent or mortgage to live somewhere as your income reduces in later life?
But taxes and “fees” are rising as is unemployment and foreclosures. The game is still in very early innings yet. Gaurd your cash and watch the show. I have a feeling the last half of 2009 is going to have some great fireworks.ParticipantWell, at least you can live in a house. Stocks make lousy homes. Also, if you could actually pay-off the house….what’s the value of not paying rent or mortgage to live somewhere as your income reduces in later life?
But taxes and “fees” are rising as is unemployment and foreclosures. The game is still in very early innings yet. Gaurd your cash and watch the show. I have a feeling the last half of 2009 is going to have some great fireworks.ParticipantWell, at least you can live in a house. Stocks make lousy homes. Also, if you could actually pay-off the house….what’s the value of not paying rent or mortgage to live somewhere as your income reduces in later life?
But taxes and “fees” are rising as is unemployment and foreclosures. The game is still in very early innings yet. Gaurd your cash and watch the show. I have a feeling the last half of 2009 is going to have some great fireworks.ParticipantWell, at least you can live in a house. Stocks make lousy homes. Also, if you could actually pay-off the house….what’s the value of not paying rent or mortgage to live somewhere as your income reduces in later life?
But taxes and “fees” are rising as is unemployment and foreclosures. The game is still in very early innings yet. Gaurd your cash and watch the show. I have a feeling the last half of 2009 is going to have some great fireworks.ParticipantConsensus on this site may seem fairly negative but the residential RE investor world is not. I follow several RE investor blogs and groups that actually meet in person on a regular basis…they’re very much in a “buy” mode. I attended a meeting last week that was standing room only for about 300 people. I was on a conference call about 3 weeks ago that had 150 people on it. The message and the thought was very much about scooping up the $150K to $250K homes as rental units. And from what I could gather, with relatively low down payment loans. The numbers dont leave a lot of room for staying cash flow positive if they have to lower rents.
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