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peterb
ParticipantFrom an investment aspect, this is extremely risky. RE is a highly leveraged and illiquid investment. It changes trends very slowly and is easily identifiable when it’s starting.
It is much safer to wait until RE shows a solid YOY rise and other fundamental economic factors turn positive. Sure, you dont get in at the bottom, but far more importantly, you dont get in before the bottom. Because no one knows where it is until there’s a solid and consistant rise.ParticipantFrom an investment aspect, this is extremely risky. RE is a highly leveraged and illiquid investment. It changes trends very slowly and is easily identifiable when it’s starting.
It is much safer to wait until RE shows a solid YOY rise and other fundamental economic factors turn positive. Sure, you dont get in at the bottom, but far more importantly, you dont get in before the bottom. Because no one knows where it is until there’s a solid and consistant rise.ParticipantFrom an investment aspect, this is extremely risky. RE is a highly leveraged and illiquid investment. It changes trends very slowly and is easily identifiable when it’s starting.
It is much safer to wait until RE shows a solid YOY rise and other fundamental economic factors turn positive. Sure, you dont get in at the bottom, but far more importantly, you dont get in before the bottom. Because no one knows where it is until there’s a solid and consistant rise.May 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM in reply to: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”: If You’re Not Petrified, You’re Not Paying Attention” #400285ParticipantIt’s a classic post bubble contraction. There’s been about 5 in the last 300 years. Very rare, but historically documented events that happen when credit gets stupid for 5 to 10 years. Like we did for most of the last decade. Be prepared for a reduction in std of living. That’s all. We could probably use it anyway.
May 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM in reply to: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”: If You’re Not Petrified, You’re Not Paying Attention” #400533ParticipantIt’s a classic post bubble contraction. There’s been about 5 in the last 300 years. Very rare, but historically documented events that happen when credit gets stupid for 5 to 10 years. Like we did for most of the last decade. Be prepared for a reduction in std of living. That’s all. We could probably use it anyway.
May 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM in reply to: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”: If You’re Not Petrified, You’re Not Paying Attention” #400765ParticipantIt’s a classic post bubble contraction. There’s been about 5 in the last 300 years. Very rare, but historically documented events that happen when credit gets stupid for 5 to 10 years. Like we did for most of the last decade. Be prepared for a reduction in std of living. That’s all. We could probably use it anyway.
May 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM in reply to: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”: If You’re Not Petrified, You’re Not Paying Attention” #400821ParticipantIt’s a classic post bubble contraction. There’s been about 5 in the last 300 years. Very rare, but historically documented events that happen when credit gets stupid for 5 to 10 years. Like we did for most of the last decade. Be prepared for a reduction in std of living. That’s all. We could probably use it anyway.
May 16, 2009 at 2:08 PM in reply to: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”: If You’re Not Petrified, You’re Not Paying Attention” #400973ParticipantIt’s a classic post bubble contraction. There’s been about 5 in the last 300 years. Very rare, but historically documented events that happen when credit gets stupid for 5 to 10 years. Like we did for most of the last decade. Be prepared for a reduction in std of living. That’s all. We could probably use it anyway.
ParticipantIt’s classic human behavior patterns. Denial is always the first stage.
ParticipantIt’s classic human behavior patterns. Denial is always the first stage.
ParticipantIt’s classic human behavior patterns. Denial is always the first stage.
ParticipantIt’s classic human behavior patterns. Denial is always the first stage.
ParticipantIt’s classic human behavior patterns. Denial is always the first stage.
ParticipantThe way this economic contraction is evolving is very close to all classic credit contraction driven recessions. Therefore, a true bottom probably will not happen until 40 to 50 months from the begining of the contraction. Beware, as this one looks worse than all previous contractions. It could be longer and deeper.
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