[peterb]

All these bail-out tactics are just stalling the inevitable. But that’s the idea. Taking the whole hit all in one year could kill the host. But spreading it out over several years will allow survival. It’s clear to me, we’re in survival mode. And it looks exactly like the Japanese model from the early 1990’s!! The outcome is a long, protracted recession. And it will probably cause the true bottom of the real estate market to take another year or two and then bump along the bottom for at least a couple more years.

[peterb]

All these bail-out tactics are just stalling the inevitable. But that’s the idea. Taking the whole hit all in one year could kill the host. But spreading it out over several years will allow survival. It’s clear to me, we’re in survival mode. And it looks exactly like the Japanese model from the early 1990’s!! The outcome is a long, protracted recession. And it will probably cause the true bottom of the real estate market to take another year or two and then bump along the bottom for at least a couple more years.

[peterb]

All these bail-out tactics are just stalling the inevitable. But that’s the idea. Taking the whole hit all in one year could kill the host. But spreading it out over several years will allow survival. It’s clear to me, we’re in survival mode. And it looks exactly like the Japanese model from the early 1990’s!! The outcome is a long, protracted recession. And it will probably cause the true bottom of the real estate market to take another year or two and then bump along the bottom for at least a couple more years.

[peterb]

All these bail-out tactics are just stalling the inevitable. But that’s the idea. Taking the whole hit all in one year could kill the host. But spreading it out over several years will allow survival. It’s clear to me, we’re in survival mode. And it looks exactly like the Japanese model from the early 1990’s!! The outcome is a long, protracted recession. And it will probably cause the true bottom of the real estate market to take another year or two and then bump along the bottom for at least a couple more years.

[peterb]

All these bail-out tactics are just stalling the inevitable. But that’s the idea. Taking the whole hit all in one year could kill the host. But spreading it out over several years will allow survival. It’s clear to me, we’re in survival mode. And it looks exactly like the Japanese model from the early 1990’s!! The outcome is a long, protracted recession. And it will probably cause the true bottom of the real estate market to take another year or two and then bump along the bottom for at least a couple more years.

[peterb]

Demand is still high for rents. But Rich dealt with this issue a couple of months back. His historical analysis showed that rents actually went down ~5% during the last real estate down cycle in the early 1990’s. But if you look at net migration, it was negative. So, we need to see people leaving the area for rents to get soft. Also, everyone that’s evicted at the end of a foreclosure needs to rent somewhere to live. If buyers cant get at the foreclosure inventory to live in or rent out, then that’s added pressure to the rental market as more people look to rent and less home are initially available. This should change a lot in the next 12 months.

[peterb]

Demand is still high for rents. But Rich dealt with this issue a couple of months back. His historical analysis showed that rents actually went down ~5% during the last real estate down cycle in the early 1990’s. But if you look at net migration, it was negative. So, we need to see people leaving the area for rents to get soft. Also, everyone that’s evicted at the end of a foreclosure needs to rent somewhere to live. If buyers cant get at the foreclosure inventory to live in or rent out, then that’s added pressure to the rental market as more people look to rent and less home are initially available. This should change a lot in the next 12 months.

[peterb]

Demand is still high for rents. But Rich dealt with this issue a couple of months back. His historical analysis showed that rents actually went down ~5% during the last real estate down cycle in the early 1990’s. But if you look at net migration, it was negative. So, we need to see people leaving the area for rents to get soft. Also, everyone that’s evicted at the end of a foreclosure needs to rent somewhere to live. If buyers cant get at the foreclosure inventory to live in or rent out, then that’s added pressure to the rental market as more people look to rent and less home are initially available. This should change a lot in the next 12 months.

[peterb]

Demand is still high for rents. But Rich dealt with this issue a couple of months back. His historical analysis showed that rents actually went down ~5% during the last real estate down cycle in the early 1990’s. But if you look at net migration, it was negative. So, we need to see people leaving the area for rents to get soft. Also, everyone that’s evicted at the end of a foreclosure needs to rent somewhere to live. If buyers cant get at the foreclosure inventory to live in or rent out, then that’s added pressure to the rental market as more people look to rent and less home are initially available. This should change a lot in the next 12 months.

[peterb]

Demand is still high for rents. But Rich dealt with this issue a couple of months back. His historical analysis showed that rents actually went down ~5% during the last real estate down cycle in the early 1990’s. But if you look at net migration, it was negative. So, we need to see people leaving the area for rents to get soft. Also, everyone that’s evicted at the end of a foreclosure needs to rent somewhere to live. If buyers cant get at the foreclosure inventory to live in or rent out, then that’s added pressure to the rental market as more people look to rent and less home are initially available. This should change a lot in the next 12 months.

[peterb]

Both Bruce Norris and Carlos Royal studied this pretty closely and came to this same conclusion regarding trends in real estate prices. As unemployment rises over ~6.5% real estate prices start to get very soft. Who takes on a 30 year commitment when they’re afraid of losing their job? Especially when it’s a lot higher than their rent? There was a point in the 1980’s where CA real estate was going through the roof and the mortgage interest rate was ~12%, but unemployment was under 5%. Of course, many factors contribute, but by far the most powerful looking factor seems to be unemployment.

[peterb]

Both Bruce Norris and Carlos Royal studied this pretty closely and came to this same conclusion regarding trends in real estate prices. As unemployment rises over ~6.5% real estate prices start to get very soft. Who takes on a 30 year commitment when they’re afraid of losing their job? Especially when it’s a lot higher than their rent? There was a point in the 1980’s where CA real estate was going through the roof and the mortgage interest rate was ~12%, but unemployment was under 5%. Of course, many factors contribute, but by far the most powerful looking factor seems to be unemployment.

[peterb]

Both Bruce Norris and Carlos Royal studied this pretty closely and came to this same conclusion regarding trends in real estate prices. As unemployment rises over ~6.5% real estate prices start to get very soft. Who takes on a 30 year commitment when they’re afraid of losing their job? Especially when it’s a lot higher than their rent? There was a point in the 1980’s where CA real estate was going through the roof and the mortgage interest rate was ~12%, but unemployment was under 5%. Of course, many factors contribute, but by far the most powerful looking factor seems to be unemployment.

[peterb]

Both Bruce Norris and Carlos Royal studied this pretty closely and came to this same conclusion regarding trends in real estate prices. As unemployment rises over ~6.5% real estate prices start to get very soft. Who takes on a 30 year commitment when they’re afraid of losing their job? Especially when it’s a lot higher than their rent? There was a point in the 1980’s where CA real estate was going through the roof and the mortgage interest rate was ~12%, but unemployment was under 5%. Of course, many factors contribute, but by far the most powerful looking factor seems to be unemployment.

[peterb]

Both Bruce Norris and Carlos Royal studied this pretty closely and came to this same conclusion regarding trends in real estate prices. As unemployment rises over ~6.5% real estate prices start to get very soft. Who takes on a 30 year commitment when they’re afraid of losing their job? Especially when it’s a lot higher than their rent? There was a point in the 1980’s where CA real estate was going through the roof and the mortgage interest rate was ~12%, but unemployment was under 5%. Of course, many factors contribute, but by far the most powerful looking factor seems to be unemployment.

[Author]

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