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peterb
ParticipantCredit is unwinding at a furious pace and unemployment is rising about as fast as it ever has. Dont buy real estate right now unless there’s some compelling reason besides financial logic. Evidence is quickly starting to build that we’re getting over supply in commodities now and we’ve had it in durable goods for a while. Hang on to your money, we are headed for deflation in many other things besides just real estate now.
Marc Faber, who’s been almost dead-on with his predictions for the last 8 years, said recently that he does not see any good and safe investment right now. That means cash is king. Even the US Peso is gaining now.
ParticipantCredit is unwinding at a furious pace and unemployment is rising about as fast as it ever has. Dont buy real estate right now unless there’s some compelling reason besides financial logic. Evidence is quickly starting to build that we’re getting over supply in commodities now and we’ve had it in durable goods for a while. Hang on to your money, we are headed for deflation in many other things besides just real estate now.
Marc Faber, who’s been almost dead-on with his predictions for the last 8 years, said recently that he does not see any good and safe investment right now. That means cash is king. Even the US Peso is gaining now.
ParticipantCredit is unwinding at a furious pace and unemployment is rising about as fast as it ever has. Dont buy real estate right now unless there’s some compelling reason besides financial logic. Evidence is quickly starting to build that we’re getting over supply in commodities now and we’ve had it in durable goods for a while. Hang on to your money, we are headed for deflation in many other things besides just real estate now.
Marc Faber, who’s been almost dead-on with his predictions for the last 8 years, said recently that he does not see any good and safe investment right now. That means cash is king. Even the US Peso is gaining now.
ParticipantCredit is unwinding at a furious pace and unemployment is rising about as fast as it ever has. Dont buy real estate right now unless there’s some compelling reason besides financial logic. Evidence is quickly starting to build that we’re getting over supply in commodities now and we’ve had it in durable goods for a while. Hang on to your money, we are headed for deflation in many other things besides just real estate now.
Marc Faber, who’s been almost dead-on with his predictions for the last 8 years, said recently that he does not see any good and safe investment right now. That means cash is king. Even the US Peso is gaining now.
ParticipantThe mess really hit the fan when lenders decided to give money to anyone with a pulse. Having bought and sold houses from 1990 to 2007, I can tell you that I was blown away by lenders starting in 2003. I started flipping homes like crazy because I knew that anyone could now buy. Take a market that’s got decent demand and open up the funding spigot. You get massive inflation caused by incredible leverage. This makes a bubble. Bubble burst once it is recognized that they cannot sustain their growth rates and/or the debt can no longer be serviced that got them the growth. When leverage unwinds, it’s an ugly downward cycle. That’s what we’re seeing in the RE market now. Falling prices = no equity. No credit. Add unemployment and you’ve got a perfect storm. Even when prices get down to historical levels, like 5 times annual income, there will not be much demand due the psychological distruction of RE as an investment and the fear of job loss. When this happens, there will be real deals in the RE market. But then, we may take a lot longer to recover than in past RE cycles….
ParticipantThe mess really hit the fan when lenders decided to give money to anyone with a pulse. Having bought and sold houses from 1990 to 2007, I can tell you that I was blown away by lenders starting in 2003. I started flipping homes like crazy because I knew that anyone could now buy. Take a market that’s got decent demand and open up the funding spigot. You get massive inflation caused by incredible leverage. This makes a bubble. Bubble burst once it is recognized that they cannot sustain their growth rates and/or the debt can no longer be serviced that got them the growth. When leverage unwinds, it’s an ugly downward cycle. That’s what we’re seeing in the RE market now. Falling prices = no equity. No credit. Add unemployment and you’ve got a perfect storm. Even when prices get down to historical levels, like 5 times annual income, there will not be much demand due the psychological distruction of RE as an investment and the fear of job loss. When this happens, there will be real deals in the RE market. But then, we may take a lot longer to recover than in past RE cycles….
ParticipantThe mess really hit the fan when lenders decided to give money to anyone with a pulse. Having bought and sold houses from 1990 to 2007, I can tell you that I was blown away by lenders starting in 2003. I started flipping homes like crazy because I knew that anyone could now buy. Take a market that’s got decent demand and open up the funding spigot. You get massive inflation caused by incredible leverage. This makes a bubble. Bubble burst once it is recognized that they cannot sustain their growth rates and/or the debt can no longer be serviced that got them the growth. When leverage unwinds, it’s an ugly downward cycle. That’s what we’re seeing in the RE market now. Falling prices = no equity. No credit. Add unemployment and you’ve got a perfect storm. Even when prices get down to historical levels, like 5 times annual income, there will not be much demand due the psychological distruction of RE as an investment and the fear of job loss. When this happens, there will be real deals in the RE market. But then, we may take a lot longer to recover than in past RE cycles….
ParticipantThe mess really hit the fan when lenders decided to give money to anyone with a pulse. Having bought and sold houses from 1990 to 2007, I can tell you that I was blown away by lenders starting in 2003. I started flipping homes like crazy because I knew that anyone could now buy. Take a market that’s got decent demand and open up the funding spigot. You get massive inflation caused by incredible leverage. This makes a bubble. Bubble burst once it is recognized that they cannot sustain their growth rates and/or the debt can no longer be serviced that got them the growth. When leverage unwinds, it’s an ugly downward cycle. That’s what we’re seeing in the RE market now. Falling prices = no equity. No credit. Add unemployment and you’ve got a perfect storm. Even when prices get down to historical levels, like 5 times annual income, there will not be much demand due the psychological distruction of RE as an investment and the fear of job loss. When this happens, there will be real deals in the RE market. But then, we may take a lot longer to recover than in past RE cycles….
ParticipantThe mess really hit the fan when lenders decided to give money to anyone with a pulse. Having bought and sold houses from 1990 to 2007, I can tell you that I was blown away by lenders starting in 2003. I started flipping homes like crazy because I knew that anyone could now buy. Take a market that’s got decent demand and open up the funding spigot. You get massive inflation caused by incredible leverage. This makes a bubble. Bubble burst once it is recognized that they cannot sustain their growth rates and/or the debt can no longer be serviced that got them the growth. When leverage unwinds, it’s an ugly downward cycle. That’s what we’re seeing in the RE market now. Falling prices = no equity. No credit. Add unemployment and you’ve got a perfect storm. Even when prices get down to historical levels, like 5 times annual income, there will not be much demand due the psychological distruction of RE as an investment and the fear of job loss. When this happens, there will be real deals in the RE market. But then, we may take a lot longer to recover than in past RE cycles….
ParticipantRisk reward is your choice, of course. But these are somewhat new waters of default levels and the FDIC. Past performance may not be an accurate indicator for the future. This seems like a rather large chunk of change to risk when it’s not really needed to risk. In a receeding market, capital preservation is absolutely critical. There’s no upside anywhere right now and lots of downside happening and coming down the pike. Take an ultra defensive position and wait for the bottom. My opinion FWIW.
ParticipantRisk reward is your choice, of course. But these are somewhat new waters of default levels and the FDIC. Past performance may not be an accurate indicator for the future. This seems like a rather large chunk of change to risk when it’s not really needed to risk. In a receeding market, capital preservation is absolutely critical. There’s no upside anywhere right now and lots of downside happening and coming down the pike. Take an ultra defensive position and wait for the bottom. My opinion FWIW.
ParticipantRisk reward is your choice, of course. But these are somewhat new waters of default levels and the FDIC. Past performance may not be an accurate indicator for the future. This seems like a rather large chunk of change to risk when it’s not really needed to risk. In a receeding market, capital preservation is absolutely critical. There’s no upside anywhere right now and lots of downside happening and coming down the pike. Take an ultra defensive position and wait for the bottom. My opinion FWIW.
ParticipantRisk reward is your choice, of course. But these are somewhat new waters of default levels and the FDIC. Past performance may not be an accurate indicator for the future. This seems like a rather large chunk of change to risk when it’s not really needed to risk. In a receeding market, capital preservation is absolutely critical. There’s no upside anywhere right now and lots of downside happening and coming down the pike. Take an ultra defensive position and wait for the bottom. My opinion FWIW.
ParticipantRisk reward is your choice, of course. But these are somewhat new waters of default levels and the FDIC. Past performance may not be an accurate indicator for the future. This seems like a rather large chunk of change to risk when it’s not really needed to risk. In a receeding market, capital preservation is absolutely critical. There’s no upside anywhere right now and lots of downside happening and coming down the pike. Take an ultra defensive position and wait for the bottom. My opinion FWIW.
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