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peterb
ParticipantCould you give us some basic numbers about these deals? No names or specifics, just the discount they’re paying compared to the real-time market price and how quickly they’re turning the properties?
ParticipantCould you give us some basic numbers about these deals? No names or specifics, just the discount they’re paying compared to the real-time market price and how quickly they’re turning the properties?
ParticipantCould you give us some basic numbers about these deals? No names or specifics, just the discount they’re paying compared to the real-time market price and how quickly they’re turning the properties?
ParticipantCould you give us some basic numbers about these deals? No names or specifics, just the discount they’re paying compared to the real-time market price and how quickly they’re turning the properties?
ParticipantSeeing this debate, I have to chime in with some “real world” experience.
I bought and sold several homes and condo in two really different place from 2003 to 2007. San Francisco and Mission Beach. One thing that I learned about Mission Beach was that it’s a huge vacation desitination where people stay in vacation rentals at or very near the beach. For good or bad, this in the quite common. Turns out it is common in many beach communities all over the world. Who knew? Anyway, I had the opportunity to create CC&R’s and one the decisions concerned “should vacation rentals of a short term nature be allowed?” Well, I thought that rather than me guess about this and blow it, I should wait and see what the buyers wanted. Simple enough.
Well, come to find out, almost everyone who considered buying any of the units wanted the option to rent them as vacation rentals. I mean virtually everyone I talk to about it!! So, that’s the way I made them and they sold.
In SF, I considered buying into a TIC…they are about 30% less than the market for a std condo. But the draw back is that they are loaded with legal issues that prevent almost any options to the owner. That’s one big reason they sell at such a discount.
So my experience is that having options that allow for economic gain of the purchaser increases the value of the property to the purchaser. Wow, kinda like something outta Econ 101. Maybe that sheepskin wasnt a complete waste. If only I listened the first time!!!ParticipantSeeing this debate, I have to chime in with some “real world” experience.
I bought and sold several homes and condo in two really different place from 2003 to 2007. San Francisco and Mission Beach. One thing that I learned about Mission Beach was that it’s a huge vacation desitination where people stay in vacation rentals at or very near the beach. For good or bad, this in the quite common. Turns out it is common in many beach communities all over the world. Who knew? Anyway, I had the opportunity to create CC&R’s and one the decisions concerned “should vacation rentals of a short term nature be allowed?” Well, I thought that rather than me guess about this and blow it, I should wait and see what the buyers wanted. Simple enough.
Well, come to find out, almost everyone who considered buying any of the units wanted the option to rent them as vacation rentals. I mean virtually everyone I talk to about it!! So, that’s the way I made them and they sold.
In SF, I considered buying into a TIC…they are about 30% less than the market for a std condo. But the draw back is that they are loaded with legal issues that prevent almost any options to the owner. That’s one big reason they sell at such a discount.
So my experience is that having options that allow for economic gain of the purchaser increases the value of the property to the purchaser. Wow, kinda like something outta Econ 101. Maybe that sheepskin wasnt a complete waste. If only I listened the first time!!!ParticipantSeeing this debate, I have to chime in with some “real world” experience.
I bought and sold several homes and condo in two really different place from 2003 to 2007. San Francisco and Mission Beach. One thing that I learned about Mission Beach was that it’s a huge vacation desitination where people stay in vacation rentals at or very near the beach. For good or bad, this in the quite common. Turns out it is common in many beach communities all over the world. Who knew? Anyway, I had the opportunity to create CC&R’s and one the decisions concerned “should vacation rentals of a short term nature be allowed?” Well, I thought that rather than me guess about this and blow it, I should wait and see what the buyers wanted. Simple enough.
Well, come to find out, almost everyone who considered buying any of the units wanted the option to rent them as vacation rentals. I mean virtually everyone I talk to about it!! So, that’s the way I made them and they sold.
In SF, I considered buying into a TIC…they are about 30% less than the market for a std condo. But the draw back is that they are loaded with legal issues that prevent almost any options to the owner. That’s one big reason they sell at such a discount.
So my experience is that having options that allow for economic gain of the purchaser increases the value of the property to the purchaser. Wow, kinda like something outta Econ 101. Maybe that sheepskin wasnt a complete waste. If only I listened the first time!!!ParticipantSeeing this debate, I have to chime in with some “real world” experience.
I bought and sold several homes and condo in two really different place from 2003 to 2007. San Francisco and Mission Beach. One thing that I learned about Mission Beach was that it’s a huge vacation desitination where people stay in vacation rentals at or very near the beach. For good or bad, this in the quite common. Turns out it is common in many beach communities all over the world. Who knew? Anyway, I had the opportunity to create CC&R’s and one the decisions concerned “should vacation rentals of a short term nature be allowed?” Well, I thought that rather than me guess about this and blow it, I should wait and see what the buyers wanted. Simple enough.
Well, come to find out, almost everyone who considered buying any of the units wanted the option to rent them as vacation rentals. I mean virtually everyone I talk to about it!! So, that’s the way I made them and they sold.
In SF, I considered buying into a TIC…they are about 30% less than the market for a std condo. But the draw back is that they are loaded with legal issues that prevent almost any options to the owner. That’s one big reason they sell at such a discount.
So my experience is that having options that allow for economic gain of the purchaser increases the value of the property to the purchaser. Wow, kinda like something outta Econ 101. Maybe that sheepskin wasnt a complete waste. If only I listened the first time!!!ParticipantSeeing this debate, I have to chime in with some “real world” experience.
I bought and sold several homes and condo in two really different place from 2003 to 2007. San Francisco and Mission Beach. One thing that I learned about Mission Beach was that it’s a huge vacation desitination where people stay in vacation rentals at or very near the beach. For good or bad, this in the quite common. Turns out it is common in many beach communities all over the world. Who knew? Anyway, I had the opportunity to create CC&R’s and one the decisions concerned “should vacation rentals of a short term nature be allowed?” Well, I thought that rather than me guess about this and blow it, I should wait and see what the buyers wanted. Simple enough.
Well, come to find out, almost everyone who considered buying any of the units wanted the option to rent them as vacation rentals. I mean virtually everyone I talk to about it!! So, that’s the way I made them and they sold.
In SF, I considered buying into a TIC…they are about 30% less than the market for a std condo. But the draw back is that they are loaded with legal issues that prevent almost any options to the owner. That’s one big reason they sell at such a discount.
So my experience is that having options that allow for economic gain of the purchaser increases the value of the property to the purchaser. Wow, kinda like something outta Econ 101. Maybe that sheepskin wasnt a complete waste. If only I listened the first time!!!ParticipantThis is really interesting to see the bear market play itself out in real-time! I think it shows the nature of man to think more closely about his recent events rather than the consistancy of repeated events over a longer time span. I guess because it’s shelter, our home and the biggest investment most people ever make in their lives, the subject of real estate is charged with emotion! This emotion causes people to make decisions that lack logic of a most fundemental nature. I’ve bought and sold many homes since 1993, I have become very dispassionate about homes. It’s money, plain and simple to me. A home is where you make it. The house is a pile of sticks on a chunk of dirt. In the final analysis it will obey the economic laws of the market.
A little story:
I bought real estate in the early 1990’s and lived it first-hand. Talked to many people, read the letters to editors in the news papers,(There was no public Internet then), went to seminars, etc…
I had just started to make money in 1987 and the RE market was soaring in CA. I wanted “in” badly, but didnt have the down payment.(Zero down was a deal you got from a distressed seller) Then the crash started in 1990. “Oh goody” I thought.”Now it will come down to where I can buy in.” By 1993 the price was there and so was my down payment. I pulled the trigger. Thinking that it had been down for at least 3 years and things in the economy were slightly improving and the FED had kept the interest rate low for a couple of years. All signs that the market should improve. Everybody was saying almost exactly what I am hearing now. They were not saying these things by 1995!! The market sat on the bottom for 3 more years. 2 bedroom condos ON the beach in Newport Beach were going for $95K and they’re were not many buyers. I was tempted, but couldnt really buy because I was stuck in my previous purchase. Yes, it improved, but it took until about 1997 before I could sell and break-even due to transactional costs, etc…I guess the point I’m trying to make is that this down cycle from 1990 to 1997 was not nearly as severe as what we are seeing now and it took a solid 7 years to START to return. Prices fell at most around 25% from their peak, foreclosures were about 1/3 of what they are now and unemployment peaked at about 7%.
For anyone who thinks this market will bottom and then start to turn fast, I dont think there’s much empirical proof for that whatsoever in the RE market and this down-turn is worse than anything we’ve experienced since the Great Depression. If you look at the fundementals now and the direction they’re headed, we’re in for a real battle here. The basic history of market cycles is that the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And I see no reason to think this is some exception to that rule.
I bought and sold 5 houses from 1997 to 2000. This gave me basically, financial freedom. The RE market was a harsh teacher, but paid well once the lesson was learned. I thought for sure 2001 on would be a bust and it did start out that way, but the Fed and a huge pool of international money kept the rise in prices alive.Getting a mortgage became a joke! I got back in in 2003. Got back out in 2007. Being gun shy has served me well. I really think if you look at the fundementals in 2001, we should have corrected in the RE market. Well, we should have and now we are, only now we have to make up for the 2001 to 2006 and maybe 2001 to 1997.
I apologize for this extremely long-winded story, but I’m old enough now to tell these things and though that maybe so many on this site may not have any experience in a down cycle RE market.
All I’m saying is be careful out there. There’s a real good chance it’s gonna go lower and last longer.ParticipantThis is really interesting to see the bear market play itself out in real-time! I think it shows the nature of man to think more closely about his recent events rather than the consistancy of repeated events over a longer time span. I guess because it’s shelter, our home and the biggest investment most people ever make in their lives, the subject of real estate is charged with emotion! This emotion causes people to make decisions that lack logic of a most fundemental nature. I’ve bought and sold many homes since 1993, I have become very dispassionate about homes. It’s money, plain and simple to me. A home is where you make it. The house is a pile of sticks on a chunk of dirt. In the final analysis it will obey the economic laws of the market.
A little story:
I bought real estate in the early 1990’s and lived it first-hand. Talked to many people, read the letters to editors in the news papers,(There was no public Internet then), went to seminars, etc…
I had just started to make money in 1987 and the RE market was soaring in CA. I wanted “in” badly, but didnt have the down payment.(Zero down was a deal you got from a distressed seller) Then the crash started in 1990. “Oh goody” I thought.”Now it will come down to where I can buy in.” By 1993 the price was there and so was my down payment. I pulled the trigger. Thinking that it had been down for at least 3 years and things in the economy were slightly improving and the FED had kept the interest rate low for a couple of years. All signs that the market should improve. Everybody was saying almost exactly what I am hearing now. They were not saying these things by 1995!! The market sat on the bottom for 3 more years. 2 bedroom condos ON the beach in Newport Beach were going for $95K and they’re were not many buyers. I was tempted, but couldnt really buy because I was stuck in my previous purchase. Yes, it improved, but it took until about 1997 before I could sell and break-even due to transactional costs, etc…I guess the point I’m trying to make is that this down cycle from 1990 to 1997 was not nearly as severe as what we are seeing now and it took a solid 7 years to START to return. Prices fell at most around 25% from their peak, foreclosures were about 1/3 of what they are now and unemployment peaked at about 7%.
For anyone who thinks this market will bottom and then start to turn fast, I dont think there’s much empirical proof for that whatsoever in the RE market and this down-turn is worse than anything we’ve experienced since the Great Depression. If you look at the fundementals now and the direction they’re headed, we’re in for a real battle here. The basic history of market cycles is that the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And I see no reason to think this is some exception to that rule.
I bought and sold 5 houses from 1997 to 2000. This gave me basically, financial freedom. The RE market was a harsh teacher, but paid well once the lesson was learned. I thought for sure 2001 on would be a bust and it did start out that way, but the Fed and a huge pool of international money kept the rise in prices alive.Getting a mortgage became a joke! I got back in in 2003. Got back out in 2007. Being gun shy has served me well. I really think if you look at the fundementals in 2001, we should have corrected in the RE market. Well, we should have and now we are, only now we have to make up for the 2001 to 2006 and maybe 2001 to 1997.
I apologize for this extremely long-winded story, but I’m old enough now to tell these things and though that maybe so many on this site may not have any experience in a down cycle RE market.
All I’m saying is be careful out there. There’s a real good chance it’s gonna go lower and last longer.ParticipantThis is really interesting to see the bear market play itself out in real-time! I think it shows the nature of man to think more closely about his recent events rather than the consistancy of repeated events over a longer time span. I guess because it’s shelter, our home and the biggest investment most people ever make in their lives, the subject of real estate is charged with emotion! This emotion causes people to make decisions that lack logic of a most fundemental nature. I’ve bought and sold many homes since 1993, I have become very dispassionate about homes. It’s money, plain and simple to me. A home is where you make it. The house is a pile of sticks on a chunk of dirt. In the final analysis it will obey the economic laws of the market.
A little story:
I bought real estate in the early 1990’s and lived it first-hand. Talked to many people, read the letters to editors in the news papers,(There was no public Internet then), went to seminars, etc…
I had just started to make money in 1987 and the RE market was soaring in CA. I wanted “in” badly, but didnt have the down payment.(Zero down was a deal you got from a distressed seller) Then the crash started in 1990. “Oh goody” I thought.”Now it will come down to where I can buy in.” By 1993 the price was there and so was my down payment. I pulled the trigger. Thinking that it had been down for at least 3 years and things in the economy were slightly improving and the FED had kept the interest rate low for a couple of years. All signs that the market should improve. Everybody was saying almost exactly what I am hearing now. They were not saying these things by 1995!! The market sat on the bottom for 3 more years. 2 bedroom condos ON the beach in Newport Beach were going for $95K and they’re were not many buyers. I was tempted, but couldnt really buy because I was stuck in my previous purchase. Yes, it improved, but it took until about 1997 before I could sell and break-even due to transactional costs, etc…I guess the point I’m trying to make is that this down cycle from 1990 to 1997 was not nearly as severe as what we are seeing now and it took a solid 7 years to START to return. Prices fell at most around 25% from their peak, foreclosures were about 1/3 of what they are now and unemployment peaked at about 7%.
For anyone who thinks this market will bottom and then start to turn fast, I dont think there’s much empirical proof for that whatsoever in the RE market and this down-turn is worse than anything we’ve experienced since the Great Depression. If you look at the fundementals now and the direction they’re headed, we’re in for a real battle here. The basic history of market cycles is that the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And I see no reason to think this is some exception to that rule.
I bought and sold 5 houses from 1997 to 2000. This gave me basically, financial freedom. The RE market was a harsh teacher, but paid well once the lesson was learned. I thought for sure 2001 on would be a bust and it did start out that way, but the Fed and a huge pool of international money kept the rise in prices alive.Getting a mortgage became a joke! I got back in in 2003. Got back out in 2007. Being gun shy has served me well. I really think if you look at the fundementals in 2001, we should have corrected in the RE market. Well, we should have and now we are, only now we have to make up for the 2001 to 2006 and maybe 2001 to 1997.
I apologize for this extremely long-winded story, but I’m old enough now to tell these things and though that maybe so many on this site may not have any experience in a down cycle RE market.
All I’m saying is be careful out there. There’s a real good chance it’s gonna go lower and last longer.ParticipantThis is really interesting to see the bear market play itself out in real-time! I think it shows the nature of man to think more closely about his recent events rather than the consistancy of repeated events over a longer time span. I guess because it’s shelter, our home and the biggest investment most people ever make in their lives, the subject of real estate is charged with emotion! This emotion causes people to make decisions that lack logic of a most fundemental nature. I’ve bought and sold many homes since 1993, I have become very dispassionate about homes. It’s money, plain and simple to me. A home is where you make it. The house is a pile of sticks on a chunk of dirt. In the final analysis it will obey the economic laws of the market.
A little story:
I bought real estate in the early 1990’s and lived it first-hand. Talked to many people, read the letters to editors in the news papers,(There was no public Internet then), went to seminars, etc…
I had just started to make money in 1987 and the RE market was soaring in CA. I wanted “in” badly, but didnt have the down payment.(Zero down was a deal you got from a distressed seller) Then the crash started in 1990. “Oh goody” I thought.”Now it will come down to where I can buy in.” By 1993 the price was there and so was my down payment. I pulled the trigger. Thinking that it had been down for at least 3 years and things in the economy were slightly improving and the FED had kept the interest rate low for a couple of years. All signs that the market should improve. Everybody was saying almost exactly what I am hearing now. They were not saying these things by 1995!! The market sat on the bottom for 3 more years. 2 bedroom condos ON the beach in Newport Beach were going for $95K and they’re were not many buyers. I was tempted, but couldnt really buy because I was stuck in my previous purchase. Yes, it improved, but it took until about 1997 before I could sell and break-even due to transactional costs, etc…I guess the point I’m trying to make is that this down cycle from 1990 to 1997 was not nearly as severe as what we are seeing now and it took a solid 7 years to START to return. Prices fell at most around 25% from their peak, foreclosures were about 1/3 of what they are now and unemployment peaked at about 7%.
For anyone who thinks this market will bottom and then start to turn fast, I dont think there’s much empirical proof for that whatsoever in the RE market and this down-turn is worse than anything we’ve experienced since the Great Depression. If you look at the fundementals now and the direction they’re headed, we’re in for a real battle here. The basic history of market cycles is that the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And I see no reason to think this is some exception to that rule.
I bought and sold 5 houses from 1997 to 2000. This gave me basically, financial freedom. The RE market was a harsh teacher, but paid well once the lesson was learned. I thought for sure 2001 on would be a bust and it did start out that way, but the Fed and a huge pool of international money kept the rise in prices alive.Getting a mortgage became a joke! I got back in in 2003. Got back out in 2007. Being gun shy has served me well. I really think if you look at the fundementals in 2001, we should have corrected in the RE market. Well, we should have and now we are, only now we have to make up for the 2001 to 2006 and maybe 2001 to 1997.
I apologize for this extremely long-winded story, but I’m old enough now to tell these things and though that maybe so many on this site may not have any experience in a down cycle RE market.
All I’m saying is be careful out there. There’s a real good chance it’s gonna go lower and last longer.ParticipantThis is really interesting to see the bear market play itself out in real-time! I think it shows the nature of man to think more closely about his recent events rather than the consistancy of repeated events over a longer time span. I guess because it’s shelter, our home and the biggest investment most people ever make in their lives, the subject of real estate is charged with emotion! This emotion causes people to make decisions that lack logic of a most fundemental nature. I’ve bought and sold many homes since 1993, I have become very dispassionate about homes. It’s money, plain and simple to me. A home is where you make it. The house is a pile of sticks on a chunk of dirt. In the final analysis it will obey the economic laws of the market.
A little story:
I bought real estate in the early 1990’s and lived it first-hand. Talked to many people, read the letters to editors in the news papers,(There was no public Internet then), went to seminars, etc…
I had just started to make money in 1987 and the RE market was soaring in CA. I wanted “in” badly, but didnt have the down payment.(Zero down was a deal you got from a distressed seller) Then the crash started in 1990. “Oh goody” I thought.”Now it will come down to where I can buy in.” By 1993 the price was there and so was my down payment. I pulled the trigger. Thinking that it had been down for at least 3 years and things in the economy were slightly improving and the FED had kept the interest rate low for a couple of years. All signs that the market should improve. Everybody was saying almost exactly what I am hearing now. They were not saying these things by 1995!! The market sat on the bottom for 3 more years. 2 bedroom condos ON the beach in Newport Beach were going for $95K and they’re were not many buyers. I was tempted, but couldnt really buy because I was stuck in my previous purchase. Yes, it improved, but it took until about 1997 before I could sell and break-even due to transactional costs, etc…I guess the point I’m trying to make is that this down cycle from 1990 to 1997 was not nearly as severe as what we are seeing now and it took a solid 7 years to START to return. Prices fell at most around 25% from their peak, foreclosures were about 1/3 of what they are now and unemployment peaked at about 7%.
For anyone who thinks this market will bottom and then start to turn fast, I dont think there’s much empirical proof for that whatsoever in the RE market and this down-turn is worse than anything we’ve experienced since the Great Depression. If you look at the fundementals now and the direction they’re headed, we’re in for a real battle here. The basic history of market cycles is that the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And I see no reason to think this is some exception to that rule.
I bought and sold 5 houses from 1997 to 2000. This gave me basically, financial freedom. The RE market was a harsh teacher, but paid well once the lesson was learned. I thought for sure 2001 on would be a bust and it did start out that way, but the Fed and a huge pool of international money kept the rise in prices alive.Getting a mortgage became a joke! I got back in in 2003. Got back out in 2007. Being gun shy has served me well. I really think if you look at the fundementals in 2001, we should have corrected in the RE market. Well, we should have and now we are, only now we have to make up for the 2001 to 2006 and maybe 2001 to 1997.
I apologize for this extremely long-winded story, but I’m old enough now to tell these things and though that maybe so many on this site may not have any experience in a down cycle RE market.
All I’m saying is be careful out there. There’s a real good chance it’s gonna go lower and last longer. -
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