[peterb]

The corporate representatives in congress will probably get something out of this by Friday. So this should be a good week to buy puts and get some shorts. Or sell those crap equities that have been tanking most of the year. DOW at 9000 be December looks pretty possbible now.

I am very tempted to take a bite from the buiilders. TOL, LEN and CTX may be ready to adjust in the next couple of months. I think good old TIF may be ready as well.

[peterb]

The corporate representatives in congress will probably get something out of this by Friday. So this should be a good week to buy puts and get some shorts. Or sell those crap equities that have been tanking most of the year. DOW at 9000 be December looks pretty possbible now.

I am very tempted to take a bite from the buiilders. TOL, LEN and CTX may be ready to adjust in the next couple of months. I think good old TIF may be ready as well.

[peterb]

The corporate representatives in congress will probably get something out of this by Friday. So this should be a good week to buy puts and get some shorts. Or sell those crap equities that have been tanking most of the year. DOW at 9000 be December looks pretty possbible now.

I am very tempted to take a bite from the buiilders. TOL, LEN and CTX may be ready to adjust in the next couple of months. I think good old TIF may be ready as well.

[peterb]

The corporate representatives in congress will probably get something out of this by Friday. So this should be a good week to buy puts and get some shorts. Or sell those crap equities that have been tanking most of the year. DOW at 9000 be December looks pretty possbible now.

I am very tempted to take a bite from the buiilders. TOL, LEN and CTX may be ready to adjust in the next couple of months. I think good old TIF may be ready as well.

[peterb]

Underdose, I think those are valid points you bring up. I think history is worth analyzing here as this is not the first bursting of a huge credit bubble on record.
Agreed, the govt is trying like crazy to get inflation going again. And other countries are openly deciding to divest of US dollars. I think we can both agree that govt intervention is taking off at a global level. See Financial Times for various articles.
I guess the question is, will they be successful? Perhaps stagflation is the outcome. If the money they’ve created does not increase the velocity. Or rather, does not get put to uses that grow the economy or increase spending…does it still devalue the US$? Probably, the answer is “yes”. But if other currencies are really no better than the US$ and global demand is being destroyed through a global recession, will this translate into increased prices?

This is the reason I took a position in gold. Most all currencies are starting to behave badly, so perhaps it’s a race to the bottom, which I suspect it is. The world is treating the US$ like a safe haven, but that probably wont last very long. What’s left? Looks like the yellow metal has some kind of future here. Both ElliottWave and candle stick analysis are bullish gold as well. History has gold doing well after a huge credit bubble bursts. But it also favors the senior currency. But can a trillion extra US$ floating around really be a good indicator of it’s soundness?!

Anyone have any other ideas? Contrary opinions are always welcome. As Henry Ford once said,”If I have two executives that always agree with each other, I dont need one of them.”

[peterb]

Underdose, I think those are valid points you bring up. I think history is worth analyzing here as this is not the first bursting of a huge credit bubble on record.
Agreed, the govt is trying like crazy to get inflation going again. And other countries are openly deciding to divest of US dollars. I think we can both agree that govt intervention is taking off at a global level. See Financial Times for various articles.
I guess the question is, will they be successful? Perhaps stagflation is the outcome. If the money they’ve created does not increase the velocity. Or rather, does not get put to uses that grow the economy or increase spending…does it still devalue the US$? Probably, the answer is “yes”. But if other currencies are really no better than the US$ and global demand is being destroyed through a global recession, will this translate into increased prices?

This is the reason I took a position in gold. Most all currencies are starting to behave badly, so perhaps it’s a race to the bottom, which I suspect it is. The world is treating the US$ like a safe haven, but that probably wont last very long. What’s left? Looks like the yellow metal has some kind of future here. Both ElliottWave and candle stick analysis are bullish gold as well. History has gold doing well after a huge credit bubble bursts. But it also favors the senior currency. But can a trillion extra US$ floating around really be a good indicator of it’s soundness?!

Anyone have any other ideas? Contrary opinions are always welcome. As Henry Ford once said,”If I have two executives that always agree with each other, I dont need one of them.”

[peterb]

Underdose, I think those are valid points you bring up. I think history is worth analyzing here as this is not the first bursting of a huge credit bubble on record.
Agreed, the govt is trying like crazy to get inflation going again. And other countries are openly deciding to divest of US dollars. I think we can both agree that govt intervention is taking off at a global level. See Financial Times for various articles.
I guess the question is, will they be successful? Perhaps stagflation is the outcome. If the money they’ve created does not increase the velocity. Or rather, does not get put to uses that grow the economy or increase spending…does it still devalue the US$? Probably, the answer is “yes”. But if other currencies are really no better than the US$ and global demand is being destroyed through a global recession, will this translate into increased prices?

This is the reason I took a position in gold. Most all currencies are starting to behave badly, so perhaps it’s a race to the bottom, which I suspect it is. The world is treating the US$ like a safe haven, but that probably wont last very long. What’s left? Looks like the yellow metal has some kind of future here. Both ElliottWave and candle stick analysis are bullish gold as well. History has gold doing well after a huge credit bubble bursts. But it also favors the senior currency. But can a trillion extra US$ floating around really be a good indicator of it’s soundness?!

Anyone have any other ideas? Contrary opinions are always welcome. As Henry Ford once said,”If I have two executives that always agree with each other, I dont need one of them.”

[peterb]

Underdose, I think those are valid points you bring up. I think history is worth analyzing here as this is not the first bursting of a huge credit bubble on record.
Agreed, the govt is trying like crazy to get inflation going again. And other countries are openly deciding to divest of US dollars. I think we can both agree that govt intervention is taking off at a global level. See Financial Times for various articles.
I guess the question is, will they be successful? Perhaps stagflation is the outcome. If the money they’ve created does not increase the velocity. Or rather, does not get put to uses that grow the economy or increase spending…does it still devalue the US$? Probably, the answer is “yes”. But if other currencies are really no better than the US$ and global demand is being destroyed through a global recession, will this translate into increased prices?

This is the reason I took a position in gold. Most all currencies are starting to behave badly, so perhaps it’s a race to the bottom, which I suspect it is. The world is treating the US$ like a safe haven, but that probably wont last very long. What’s left? Looks like the yellow metal has some kind of future here. Both ElliottWave and candle stick analysis are bullish gold as well. History has gold doing well after a huge credit bubble bursts. But it also favors the senior currency. But can a trillion extra US$ floating around really be a good indicator of it’s soundness?!

Anyone have any other ideas? Contrary opinions are always welcome. As Henry Ford once said,”If I have two executives that always agree with each other, I dont need one of them.”

[peterb]

Underdose, I think those are valid points you bring up. I think history is worth analyzing here as this is not the first bursting of a huge credit bubble on record.
Agreed, the govt is trying like crazy to get inflation going again. And other countries are openly deciding to divest of US dollars. I think we can both agree that govt intervention is taking off at a global level. See Financial Times for various articles.
I guess the question is, will they be successful? Perhaps stagflation is the outcome. If the money they’ve created does not increase the velocity. Or rather, does not get put to uses that grow the economy or increase spending…does it still devalue the US$? Probably, the answer is “yes”. But if other currencies are really no better than the US$ and global demand is being destroyed through a global recession, will this translate into increased prices?

This is the reason I took a position in gold. Most all currencies are starting to behave badly, so perhaps it’s a race to the bottom, which I suspect it is. The world is treating the US$ like a safe haven, but that probably wont last very long. What’s left? Looks like the yellow metal has some kind of future here. Both ElliottWave and candle stick analysis are bullish gold as well. History has gold doing well after a huge credit bubble bursts. But it also favors the senior currency. But can a trillion extra US$ floating around really be a good indicator of it’s soundness?!

Anyone have any other ideas? Contrary opinions are always welcome. As Henry Ford once said,”If I have two executives that always agree with each other, I dont need one of them.”

[peterb]

Let me put this in the plainist english I know: The crap starting to hit the fan right now has real legs!! The most I’ve ever seen in 50 years! Making assumptions based on anything besides the Great Depression is foolish at this time.

If you’re really worried about your kids school and location, rent in the hood you like and/or send you kid to a private school. This way your not locking yourself into a deal that could easily sink you financially.

RE markets move pretty slowly, so you dont have to worry about missing the upswing when it finally happens.

I dont know any other way to put it that’s more straight forward. Most of the assumptions I see written in this site are based on fairly light recessionary events of the last 40 years. This one looks a lot different. Be careful out there. Avoid illiquid assets until some better news arrives. I’ve never seen this kind of carnage and it looks to continue through the end of the year, if not longer.

I’m not being an “Alarmist”. I dont know what’s gonna happen, no one does. But it does not look good in any way, shape or form. So why get into long term debt right now??? Take a breath. Watch the show, it’s a rare one.

[peterb]

Let me put this in the plainist english I know: The crap starting to hit the fan right now has real legs!! The most I’ve ever seen in 50 years! Making assumptions based on anything besides the Great Depression is foolish at this time.

If you’re really worried about your kids school and location, rent in the hood you like and/or send you kid to a private school. This way your not locking yourself into a deal that could easily sink you financially.

RE markets move pretty slowly, so you dont have to worry about missing the upswing when it finally happens.

I dont know any other way to put it that’s more straight forward. Most of the assumptions I see written in this site are based on fairly light recessionary events of the last 40 years. This one looks a lot different. Be careful out there. Avoid illiquid assets until some better news arrives. I’ve never seen this kind of carnage and it looks to continue through the end of the year, if not longer.

I’m not being an “Alarmist”. I dont know what’s gonna happen, no one does. But it does not look good in any way, shape or form. So why get into long term debt right now??? Take a breath. Watch the show, it’s a rare one.

[peterb]

Let me put this in the plainist english I know: The crap starting to hit the fan right now has real legs!! The most I’ve ever seen in 50 years! Making assumptions based on anything besides the Great Depression is foolish at this time.

If you’re really worried about your kids school and location, rent in the hood you like and/or send you kid to a private school. This way your not locking yourself into a deal that could easily sink you financially.

RE markets move pretty slowly, so you dont have to worry about missing the upswing when it finally happens.

I dont know any other way to put it that’s more straight forward. Most of the assumptions I see written in this site are based on fairly light recessionary events of the last 40 years. This one looks a lot different. Be careful out there. Avoid illiquid assets until some better news arrives. I’ve never seen this kind of carnage and it looks to continue through the end of the year, if not longer.

I’m not being an “Alarmist”. I dont know what’s gonna happen, no one does. But it does not look good in any way, shape or form. So why get into long term debt right now??? Take a breath. Watch the show, it’s a rare one.

[peterb]

Let me put this in the plainist english I know: The crap starting to hit the fan right now has real legs!! The most I’ve ever seen in 50 years! Making assumptions based on anything besides the Great Depression is foolish at this time.

If you’re really worried about your kids school and location, rent in the hood you like and/or send you kid to a private school. This way your not locking yourself into a deal that could easily sink you financially.

RE markets move pretty slowly, so you dont have to worry about missing the upswing when it finally happens.

I dont know any other way to put it that’s more straight forward. Most of the assumptions I see written in this site are based on fairly light recessionary events of the last 40 years. This one looks a lot different. Be careful out there. Avoid illiquid assets until some better news arrives. I’ve never seen this kind of carnage and it looks to continue through the end of the year, if not longer.

I’m not being an “Alarmist”. I dont know what’s gonna happen, no one does. But it does not look good in any way, shape or form. So why get into long term debt right now??? Take a breath. Watch the show, it’s a rare one.

[peterb]

Let me put this in the plainist english I know: The crap starting to hit the fan right now has real legs!! The most I’ve ever seen in 50 years! Making assumptions based on anything besides the Great Depression is foolish at this time.

If you’re really worried about your kids school and location, rent in the hood you like and/or send you kid to a private school. This way your not locking yourself into a deal that could easily sink you financially.

RE markets move pretty slowly, so you dont have to worry about missing the upswing when it finally happens.

I dont know any other way to put it that’s more straight forward. Most of the assumptions I see written in this site are based on fairly light recessionary events of the last 40 years. This one looks a lot different. Be careful out there. Avoid illiquid assets until some better news arrives. I’ve never seen this kind of carnage and it looks to continue through the end of the year, if not longer.

I’m not being an “Alarmist”. I dont know what’s gonna happen, no one does. But it does not look good in any way, shape or form. So why get into long term debt right now??? Take a breath. Watch the show, it’s a rare one.

[peterb]

Itokuda – I agree completely. The Austrian school definition of inflation is what Mish talks about. Money available to be utilized in some manner. And we’ve definately had lots of it since 2002. But it does not always translate into “price inflation”.

Many consumer items produced in Asia over the last 10 years were very inexpensive due to very low costs of production and high volumes of production.

I’ve always favored that “price inflation” is too much money chasing too few goods or assets. The key word here is “chase”. There has to be adequate demand (Availability of money and desire to spend it) and restricted asset supply, in order to drive up a price.

If one studies the various recessions over the last 50 years, there’s a strong indication that prices will deflate due to heavy demand destruction. Even when the supply is reduced, employment is decreased and the demand destruction continues. Deflationary cycles are very destructive in this way.

The prime position to be in right now is to have liquid assets and a steady income. As credit is constricted more every month and unemployment is increased, many people will be in a dire financial position if they did not prepare for this situation properly. If you’ve been living on the financial edge, you will be falling off the cliff sometime in 2009.

Even if we experience price inflation in some consumer goods, it’s nothing compared to the asset deflation taking place right now and for most of 2008! I think that from 2010 to 2015 there will some absolutely amazing deals on assets.

Why risk the craziness in the markets right now?! Time is your friend right now if you’re positioned correctly. For those people that are in liquid assets and employed, there will be opportunities that may be once-in-a-lifetime.

I’ve parked my money in US$ and gold. If history repeats itself….after a huge credit bubble bursts, senior currency and gold rise in value for a few years, these are the places to be.

Check out Bob Hoye and Marc Faber as well as Steve Keen for other ideas. They have great track records and always lean towards safety rather than risk. This is how wealth is built, IMO.

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