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October 8, 2008 at 11:51 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284039October 8, 2008 at 11:51 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284064
peterb
ParticipantMy shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.
October 8, 2008 at 11:51 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284080peterb
ParticipantMy shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.
October 8, 2008 at 11:51 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284090peterb
ParticipantMy shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.
October 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #283711peterb
ParticipantWTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.
October 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #283999peterb
ParticipantWTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.
October 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284023peterb
ParticipantWTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.
October 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284041peterb
ParticipantWTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.
October 8, 2008 at 11:16 PM in reply to: Bubble Economics 101: Why you can’t make money even if you know a crash is coming. #284051peterb
ParticipantWTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.
October 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM in reply to: How to protect against hyperinflation and destruction of the US dollar #283701peterb
ParticipantDont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO
October 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM in reply to: How to protect against hyperinflation and destruction of the US dollar #283989peterb
ParticipantDont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO
October 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM in reply to: How to protect against hyperinflation and destruction of the US dollar #284013peterb
ParticipantDont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO
October 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM in reply to: How to protect against hyperinflation and destruction of the US dollar #284031peterb
ParticipantDont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO
October 8, 2008 at 11:07 PM in reply to: How to protect against hyperinflation and destruction of the US dollar #284040peterb
ParticipantDont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO
peterb
ParticipantAgreed about gold. It looks to be topping at 900. Tomorrow a down day in the market? Nikkei is slightly negative now. Jobless claims report is tomorrow. I’m hoping for another drop.
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