[peterb]

My shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.

[peterb]

My shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.

[peterb]

My shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.

[peterb]

My shorts and puts are up almost 40% for the year. But I did lose about 20% before I confirmed it was bear and started to trade it more. But I got out of RE in late 2006 and have been 60% cash ever since. 30% gold and 10% in the market. Stuff just keeps getting cheaper in US$ from where I sit. So it’s been pretty good. And if this last quarter of 2008 works out like I hope, it will have been a very good year for me. And believe me, I am not schooled in this. Purely an interested observer.

[peterb]

WTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.

[peterb]

WTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.

[peterb]

WTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.

[peterb]

WTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.

[peterb]

WTF? Ride the bubble up to the point before it blows and get out. Then when it’s starting to confirm a down trend, short the market. I can assure the person who wrote this that many of us have done this. Not rocket science. I guess it’s called “paying attention”. But that may be asking a lot of people.

[peterb]

Dont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.

And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO

[peterb]

Dont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.

And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO

[peterb]

Dont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.

And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO

[peterb]

Dont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.

And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO

[peterb]

Dont be so quick to write-off the US$. It’s been hammered for 4 years. It’s a little payback time. If history has anything to do with it, the US$ should stay as a superior currency for a year or two. Cash in a crash.
There’s about $50T or more in debt insturments out there that are being destroyed verses the $2T being created. Kinda like trying to kick start a 747. We got deflation now. There’s never been inflation during a housing down cycle like this. Banks are not lending, people are not borrowing. And debt is being destroyed. Velocity of money is crawling.
How anyone gets inflation outta this is beyond me.

And gold could be topping right now. It costs about $500 and ounce to get it. At $900, that’s a pretty good premium. If it goes over $1000, it’s in bubble territory. It’s really good as an accurate indictor of the currencies purchasing power. So it’s got that going for it. But if it’s measured in US$, it could be stagnating for a while. IMO

[peterb]

Agreed about gold. It looks to be topping at 900. Tomorrow a down day in the market? Nikkei is slightly negative now. Jobless claims report is tomorrow. I’m hoping for another drop.

[Author]

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