[peterb]

I am deep in the shorts and puts world this week and loving it. But it’s mostly play for me as I’ve dedicated my positions to what I think is most probable for the next 6 months. Gold and US$. But if gold goes over $1000, I’ll be looking to sell. Keep in mind, gold is doing very well in real terms. But, so is the US$.

Having said that, I think tomorrow could be a waterfall event and then next week we get the retracement that the charts are so strongly forecasting. Tomorrow is the Lehman CDS thing and it’s a Friday. And nobody holds over the weekend anymore.

[peterb]

I am deep in the shorts and puts world this week and loving it. But it’s mostly play for me as I’ve dedicated my positions to what I think is most probable for the next 6 months. Gold and US$. But if gold goes over $1000, I’ll be looking to sell. Keep in mind, gold is doing very well in real terms. But, so is the US$.

Having said that, I think tomorrow could be a waterfall event and then next week we get the retracement that the charts are so strongly forecasting. Tomorrow is the Lehman CDS thing and it’s a Friday. And nobody holds over the weekend anymore.

[peterb]

I am deep in the shorts and puts world this week and loving it. But it’s mostly play for me as I’ve dedicated my positions to what I think is most probable for the next 6 months. Gold and US$. But if gold goes over $1000, I’ll be looking to sell. Keep in mind, gold is doing very well in real terms. But, so is the US$.

Having said that, I think tomorrow could be a waterfall event and then next week we get the retracement that the charts are so strongly forecasting. Tomorrow is the Lehman CDS thing and it’s a Friday. And nobody holds over the weekend anymore.

[peterb]

I am deep in the shorts and puts world this week and loving it. But it’s mostly play for me as I’ve dedicated my positions to what I think is most probable for the next 6 months. Gold and US$. But if gold goes over $1000, I’ll be looking to sell. Keep in mind, gold is doing very well in real terms. But, so is the US$.

Having said that, I think tomorrow could be a waterfall event and then next week we get the retracement that the charts are so strongly forecasting. Tomorrow is the Lehman CDS thing and it’s a Friday. And nobody holds over the weekend anymore.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

I went to buy a toaster today and they gave me a free bank.

A mine is a hole inthe ground with a liar standing next to it.- Mark Twain. Love that one!

My advice to anyone who’s “in the market” is that you have to watch it everyday. Otherwise, get into something far less volitile. When I was in RE from 1998 to 2006, I watched it like a hawk and went to all kinds of seminars. But it’s a nice market in that it moves pretty slowly. Easier to keep track of it, spot trends, etc…

I have many friends that have the same contention that it’s difficult to track since they have lives and work, etc…to keep them busy. My answer to them is,”What’s your investments and future worth to you?” Is it worth 30 minutes a day? Just sayin.

[peterb]

An event like a war or something of this magnitude is called a “Black Swan” event. And there’s a lot of talk about these kinds of things. And I think there’s something to this. Since it’s controlled entirely by people rather than nature. But it’s also very political, and politicians are always gauging what the polity can tolerate. And I think they know our appetite for conflict is very low right now.

I think there’s something worth considering in this concept of deflation and devaluation…prices.
This seems like what we’re really all concerned with since it is the reflection of purchasing power as well as how well are our investments are storing/holding value.

From my experience, prices are all about supply and demand. Supply is huge out there in the world today. For prices to rise, there needs to be demand from somewhere in the world or shrinking supply. I see niether at this time. Too many homes, too much capacity in factories around the world. Wages not rising, credit being pulled back at an alarming rate. debt being defaulted on at an alarming rate. I’ve heard all about “moral hazard”. This is BS as there’s a consequence for defaults. It is credit destruction. And that’s pretty lethal in today’s world.

So, from my perspective, we are out of balance in a big way. wage stagnation, rising unemployment and credit destruction verses huge supply capacity. This is why I have such a strong belief that we’re in deflation. Not to mention that prices are falling like rocks all over the place. The main arguement everyone is using for inflation is that there’s a lot of new currency being created. I still contend that this is nothing compared to what’s being destroyed. And furthermore, this new currency has to be employed towards something to have an effect on supply/demand. I dont see it. There’s no velocity of this new currency. Debt defaults are stalling everything. The Fed can cut all they want and congress can pass all the crap they’re busy doing. Until the govt steps in and starts spending like there’s no tomorrow (Artificial demand), these things will have no effect on the market. Or, the world finds a new object to become the next bubble.

[peterb]

An event like a war or something of this magnitude is called a “Black Swan” event. And there’s a lot of talk about these kinds of things. And I think there’s something to this. Since it’s controlled entirely by people rather than nature. But it’s also very political, and politicians are always gauging what the polity can tolerate. And I think they know our appetite for conflict is very low right now.

I think there’s something worth considering in this concept of deflation and devaluation…prices.
This seems like what we’re really all concerned with since it is the reflection of purchasing power as well as how well are our investments are storing/holding value.

From my experience, prices are all about supply and demand. Supply is huge out there in the world today. For prices to rise, there needs to be demand from somewhere in the world or shrinking supply. I see niether at this time. Too many homes, too much capacity in factories around the world. Wages not rising, credit being pulled back at an alarming rate. debt being defaulted on at an alarming rate. I’ve heard all about “moral hazard”. This is BS as there’s a consequence for defaults. It is credit destruction. And that’s pretty lethal in today’s world.

So, from my perspective, we are out of balance in a big way. wage stagnation, rising unemployment and credit destruction verses huge supply capacity. This is why I have such a strong belief that we’re in deflation. Not to mention that prices are falling like rocks all over the place. The main arguement everyone is using for inflation is that there’s a lot of new currency being created. I still contend that this is nothing compared to what’s being destroyed. And furthermore, this new currency has to be employed towards something to have an effect on supply/demand. I dont see it. There’s no velocity of this new currency. Debt defaults are stalling everything. The Fed can cut all they want and congress can pass all the crap they’re busy doing. Until the govt steps in and starts spending like there’s no tomorrow (Artificial demand), these things will have no effect on the market. Or, the world finds a new object to become the next bubble.

[peterb]

An event like a war or something of this magnitude is called a “Black Swan” event. And there’s a lot of talk about these kinds of things. And I think there’s something to this. Since it’s controlled entirely by people rather than nature. But it’s also very political, and politicians are always gauging what the polity can tolerate. And I think they know our appetite for conflict is very low right now.

I think there’s something worth considering in this concept of deflation and devaluation…prices.
This seems like what we’re really all concerned with since it is the reflection of purchasing power as well as how well are our investments are storing/holding value.

From my experience, prices are all about supply and demand. Supply is huge out there in the world today. For prices to rise, there needs to be demand from somewhere in the world or shrinking supply. I see niether at this time. Too many homes, too much capacity in factories around the world. Wages not rising, credit being pulled back at an alarming rate. debt being defaulted on at an alarming rate. I’ve heard all about “moral hazard”. This is BS as there’s a consequence for defaults. It is credit destruction. And that’s pretty lethal in today’s world.

So, from my perspective, we are out of balance in a big way. wage stagnation, rising unemployment and credit destruction verses huge supply capacity. This is why I have such a strong belief that we’re in deflation. Not to mention that prices are falling like rocks all over the place. The main arguement everyone is using for inflation is that there’s a lot of new currency being created. I still contend that this is nothing compared to what’s being destroyed. And furthermore, this new currency has to be employed towards something to have an effect on supply/demand. I dont see it. There’s no velocity of this new currency. Debt defaults are stalling everything. The Fed can cut all they want and congress can pass all the crap they’re busy doing. Until the govt steps in and starts spending like there’s no tomorrow (Artificial demand), these things will have no effect on the market. Or, the world finds a new object to become the next bubble.

[peterb]

An event like a war or something of this magnitude is called a “Black Swan” event. And there’s a lot of talk about these kinds of things. And I think there’s something to this. Since it’s controlled entirely by people rather than nature. But it’s also very political, and politicians are always gauging what the polity can tolerate. And I think they know our appetite for conflict is very low right now.

I think there’s something worth considering in this concept of deflation and devaluation…prices.
This seems like what we’re really all concerned with since it is the reflection of purchasing power as well as how well are our investments are storing/holding value.

From my experience, prices are all about supply and demand. Supply is huge out there in the world today. For prices to rise, there needs to be demand from somewhere in the world or shrinking supply. I see niether at this time. Too many homes, too much capacity in factories around the world. Wages not rising, credit being pulled back at an alarming rate. debt being defaulted on at an alarming rate. I’ve heard all about “moral hazard”. This is BS as there’s a consequence for defaults. It is credit destruction. And that’s pretty lethal in today’s world.

So, from my perspective, we are out of balance in a big way. wage stagnation, rising unemployment and credit destruction verses huge supply capacity. This is why I have such a strong belief that we’re in deflation. Not to mention that prices are falling like rocks all over the place. The main arguement everyone is using for inflation is that there’s a lot of new currency being created. I still contend that this is nothing compared to what’s being destroyed. And furthermore, this new currency has to be employed towards something to have an effect on supply/demand. I dont see it. There’s no velocity of this new currency. Debt defaults are stalling everything. The Fed can cut all they want and congress can pass all the crap they’re busy doing. Until the govt steps in and starts spending like there’s no tomorrow (Artificial demand), these things will have no effect on the market. Or, the world finds a new object to become the next bubble.

[peterb]

An event like a war or something of this magnitude is called a “Black Swan” event. And there’s a lot of talk about these kinds of things. And I think there’s something to this. Since it’s controlled entirely by people rather than nature. But it’s also very political, and politicians are always gauging what the polity can tolerate. And I think they know our appetite for conflict is very low right now.

I think there’s something worth considering in this concept of deflation and devaluation…prices.
This seems like what we’re really all concerned with since it is the reflection of purchasing power as well as how well are our investments are storing/holding value.

From my experience, prices are all about supply and demand. Supply is huge out there in the world today. For prices to rise, there needs to be demand from somewhere in the world or shrinking supply. I see niether at this time. Too many homes, too much capacity in factories around the world. Wages not rising, credit being pulled back at an alarming rate. debt being defaulted on at an alarming rate. I’ve heard all about “moral hazard”. This is BS as there’s a consequence for defaults. It is credit destruction. And that’s pretty lethal in today’s world.

So, from my perspective, we are out of balance in a big way. wage stagnation, rising unemployment and credit destruction verses huge supply capacity. This is why I have such a strong belief that we’re in deflation. Not to mention that prices are falling like rocks all over the place. The main arguement everyone is using for inflation is that there’s a lot of new currency being created. I still contend that this is nothing compared to what’s being destroyed. And furthermore, this new currency has to be employed towards something to have an effect on supply/demand. I dont see it. There’s no velocity of this new currency. Debt defaults are stalling everything. The Fed can cut all they want and congress can pass all the crap they’re busy doing. Until the govt steps in and starts spending like there’s no tomorrow (Artificial demand), these things will have no effect on the market. Or, the world finds a new object to become the next bubble.

[peterb]

I think this is the next revolution. Govt at the state and local level is gonna get down sized. There’s no other way. The pensions are completely unsustainable and their current levels of employment are as well. It’s got to happen.

[Author]

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