[peterb]

A month ago I thought the Dow would be in the low 6000’s. Now I think the low 5000’s. Probably say low 4000’s in November at this rate.
The Nikkie is at 1982 levels and they actually make stuff people want. Does not bode will for the USA.

[peterb]

A month ago I thought the Dow would be in the low 6000’s. Now I think the low 5000’s. Probably say low 4000’s in November at this rate.
The Nikkie is at 1982 levels and they actually make stuff people want. Does not bode will for the USA.

[peterb]

A month ago I thought the Dow would be in the low 6000’s. Now I think the low 5000’s. Probably say low 4000’s in November at this rate.
The Nikkie is at 1982 levels and they actually make stuff people want. Does not bode will for the USA.

[peterb]

A month ago I thought the Dow would be in the low 6000’s. Now I think the low 5000’s. Probably say low 4000’s in November at this rate.
The Nikkie is at 1982 levels and they actually make stuff people want. Does not bode will for the USA.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

Prices are supply/demand driven. If no one wants houses, the prices will keep moving down. It’s this simple. Higher unemployment will grind down every market. The further from job markets, the far worse it will be. Homes in Temecula for $100K, why not? Lower rents, of course.
This is like contemplating the value of stock based on the last two years of its P/E. Not very useful if the new level of earnings is going to be so much lower that the price has to come a lot further down to match the acceptable ratio. Current rents and ratio’s are based on things that people tend to think are static, and they are not static. Will wages come down? I think we’re going to find out the hard way in the next couple of years. But if they do, that will cause all these ratio’s as to rent vs. buying and a home costing 4 times the HH income to be reset to a lower level. Now add the psychological pressure of possible job loss or need to relocate… See what unemployment does to the housing market. Just wait and see. I hope I’m wrong, but this is looking the mother of all melt-downs thus far. So I will now take off my tin foil hat. But this is not out of the realm of possible.

[peterb]

There are a thousand ways to sunday to tax people. And the govt knows this. Transactions, ownership and almost anything we do can have a tax of somekind associated with it. But watch carefully as it will be called a “fee” or increase in some kind of thing that normally had no fee or much less of a “fee” etc…bottom line, at the end of the day, the govt will be looking to extract more money from us. And of course, it can be a good old fashioned increase in taxes. But that’s tough for the congress thieves to do when we’re all under unemployment pressure and wage freezes.

[peterb]

There are a thousand ways to sunday to tax people. And the govt knows this. Transactions, ownership and almost anything we do can have a tax of somekind associated with it. But watch carefully as it will be called a “fee” or increase in some kind of thing that normally had no fee or much less of a “fee” etc…bottom line, at the end of the day, the govt will be looking to extract more money from us. And of course, it can be a good old fashioned increase in taxes. But that’s tough for the congress thieves to do when we’re all under unemployment pressure and wage freezes.

[peterb]

There are a thousand ways to sunday to tax people. And the govt knows this. Transactions, ownership and almost anything we do can have a tax of somekind associated with it. But watch carefully as it will be called a “fee” or increase in some kind of thing that normally had no fee or much less of a “fee” etc…bottom line, at the end of the day, the govt will be looking to extract more money from us. And of course, it can be a good old fashioned increase in taxes. But that’s tough for the congress thieves to do when we’re all under unemployment pressure and wage freezes.

[peterb]

There are a thousand ways to sunday to tax people. And the govt knows this. Transactions, ownership and almost anything we do can have a tax of somekind associated with it. But watch carefully as it will be called a “fee” or increase in some kind of thing that normally had no fee or much less of a “fee” etc…bottom line, at the end of the day, the govt will be looking to extract more money from us. And of course, it can be a good old fashioned increase in taxes. But that’s tough for the congress thieves to do when we’re all under unemployment pressure and wage freezes.

[peterb]

There are a thousand ways to sunday to tax people. And the govt knows this. Transactions, ownership and almost anything we do can have a tax of somekind associated with it. But watch carefully as it will be called a “fee” or increase in some kind of thing that normally had no fee or much less of a “fee” etc…bottom line, at the end of the day, the govt will be looking to extract more money from us. And of course, it can be a good old fashioned increase in taxes. But that’s tough for the congress thieves to do when we’re all under unemployment pressure and wage freezes.

[peterb]

Near a bottom? Tsunami’s coming. Maybe when CA unemployment is at 12% at the end of 2009 or in 2010.
Check all stats about CA home prices and unemployment above 7%. I think this may prove valuable to everyone who’s concerned about price movements in the housing market. The correlation is astoundingly high.

Check with SDCIA and see when Bruce Norris is going to be speaking again. Then take your wife to this meeting. Last a couple of hours.

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