[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Timing is everything. Winter will be a factor. But I think unemployment will be trumping it. Check out oil prices during the recession of the early 1980’s. Consumption dropped by 8% and the price dropped by 60%. Unemployment’s gonna be huge in 2009. I’m thinking oil will be the call in the summer of 2009 as that may be the rock bottom.

[peterb]

Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I think his experience was that the “first-time buyer” is a much bigger market than the number of buyers that would be in the “move-up” catagory. For obvious reasons. And most first-time buyers come in at the low-end. He’s buying and selling an average of 10 SFR’s a month for the last 6 months. This model needs volume. He claims he’s going into escrow within 15 days of listing. Paying 25% of the first morgage from the lender. Strictly a low-end strategy. Lower buy-in and with greater volume in this market.

I have two big concerns about this.
1) Selling homes for way over what the comps may be.i.e…would appraisers go for this? Do appraisers use auction/REO sales as comps for a retail loan appraisal?

2)As unemployment takes off, these buyers may dry up real fast.

As for govt intervention. Who knows. They’ve never been all that good at helping j6pak. I doubt that will change too much. If history is any indicator.

[peterb]

Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I think his experience was that the “first-time buyer” is a much bigger market than the number of buyers that would be in the “move-up” catagory. For obvious reasons. And most first-time buyers come in at the low-end. He’s buying and selling an average of 10 SFR’s a month for the last 6 months. This model needs volume. He claims he’s going into escrow within 15 days of listing. Paying 25% of the first morgage from the lender. Strictly a low-end strategy. Lower buy-in and with greater volume in this market.

I have two big concerns about this.
1) Selling homes for way over what the comps may be.i.e…would appraisers go for this? Do appraisers use auction/REO sales as comps for a retail loan appraisal?

2)As unemployment takes off, these buyers may dry up real fast.

As for govt intervention. Who knows. They’ve never been all that good at helping j6pak. I doubt that will change too much. If history is any indicator.

[peterb]

Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I think his experience was that the “first-time buyer” is a much bigger market than the number of buyers that would be in the “move-up” catagory. For obvious reasons. And most first-time buyers come in at the low-end. He’s buying and selling an average of 10 SFR’s a month for the last 6 months. This model needs volume. He claims he’s going into escrow within 15 days of listing. Paying 25% of the first morgage from the lender. Strictly a low-end strategy. Lower buy-in and with greater volume in this market.

I have two big concerns about this.
1) Selling homes for way over what the comps may be.i.e…would appraisers go for this? Do appraisers use auction/REO sales as comps for a retail loan appraisal?

2)As unemployment takes off, these buyers may dry up real fast.

As for govt intervention. Who knows. They’ve never been all that good at helping j6pak. I doubt that will change too much. If history is any indicator.

[peterb]

Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I think his experience was that the “first-time buyer” is a much bigger market than the number of buyers that would be in the “move-up” catagory. For obvious reasons. And most first-time buyers come in at the low-end. He’s buying and selling an average of 10 SFR’s a month for the last 6 months. This model needs volume. He claims he’s going into escrow within 15 days of listing. Paying 25% of the first morgage from the lender. Strictly a low-end strategy. Lower buy-in and with greater volume in this market.

I have two big concerns about this.
1) Selling homes for way over what the comps may be.i.e…would appraisers go for this? Do appraisers use auction/REO sales as comps for a retail loan appraisal?

2)As unemployment takes off, these buyers may dry up real fast.

As for govt intervention. Who knows. They’ve never been all that good at helping j6pak. I doubt that will change too much. If history is any indicator.

[peterb]

Yes, I understand what you’re saying, but I think his experience was that the “first-time buyer” is a much bigger market than the number of buyers that would be in the “move-up” catagory. For obvious reasons. And most first-time buyers come in at the low-end. He’s buying and selling an average of 10 SFR’s a month for the last 6 months. This model needs volume. He claims he’s going into escrow within 15 days of listing. Paying 25% of the first morgage from the lender. Strictly a low-end strategy. Lower buy-in and with greater volume in this market.

I have two big concerns about this.
1) Selling homes for way over what the comps may be.i.e…would appraisers go for this? Do appraisers use auction/REO sales as comps for a retail loan appraisal?

2)As unemployment takes off, these buyers may dry up real fast.

As for govt intervention. Who knows. They’ve never been all that good at helping j6pak. I doubt that will change too much. If history is any indicator.

[peterb]

Last night I attended an RE investment meeting. A couple of observations about the meeting and what was said:

1) There was easily 250 people at the meeting looking to invest. So this tells me sentiment for RE is still quite high despite recent huge declines.

2)The only organic sales happening right now are low-end starter home purchases for people that were priced-out for the last 8 years and now want to buy. Pent-up demand seeking to satisfy their demand.

My take: There’s still some money to squeeze out of the market in the near term on the low-end. How long this will last? As unemployment rises in CA, this could be a very short lived opportunity.

[peterb]

Last night I attended an RE investment meeting. A couple of observations about the meeting and what was said:

1) There was easily 250 people at the meeting looking to invest. So this tells me sentiment for RE is still quite high despite recent huge declines.

2)The only organic sales happening right now are low-end starter home purchases for people that were priced-out for the last 8 years and now want to buy. Pent-up demand seeking to satisfy their demand.

My take: There’s still some money to squeeze out of the market in the near term on the low-end. How long this will last? As unemployment rises in CA, this could be a very short lived opportunity.

[peterb]

Last night I attended an RE investment meeting. A couple of observations about the meeting and what was said:

1) There was easily 250 people at the meeting looking to invest. So this tells me sentiment for RE is still quite high despite recent huge declines.

2)The only organic sales happening right now are low-end starter home purchases for people that were priced-out for the last 8 years and now want to buy. Pent-up demand seeking to satisfy their demand.

My take: There’s still some money to squeeze out of the market in the near term on the low-end. How long this will last? As unemployment rises in CA, this could be a very short lived opportunity.

[peterb]

Last night I attended an RE investment meeting. A couple of observations about the meeting and what was said:

1) There was easily 250 people at the meeting looking to invest. So this tells me sentiment for RE is still quite high despite recent huge declines.

2)The only organic sales happening right now are low-end starter home purchases for people that were priced-out for the last 8 years and now want to buy. Pent-up demand seeking to satisfy their demand.

My take: There’s still some money to squeeze out of the market in the near term on the low-end. How long this will last? As unemployment rises in CA, this could be a very short lived opportunity.

[peterb]

Last night I attended an RE investment meeting. A couple of observations about the meeting and what was said:

1) There was easily 250 people at the meeting looking to invest. So this tells me sentiment for RE is still quite high despite recent huge declines.

2)The only organic sales happening right now are low-end starter home purchases for people that were priced-out for the last 8 years and now want to buy. Pent-up demand seeking to satisfy their demand.

My take: There’s still some money to squeeze out of the market in the near term on the low-end. How long this will last? As unemployment rises in CA, this could be a very short lived opportunity.

[peterb]

denverite- I could not agree with you more on this! We are embarking on very likely the worst global economic disaster to happen since the 1930’s. Maybe worse. Going long with max leverage on a depreciating asset that’s highly illiquid is the absolute worst thing to do right now. But pent-up demand and dreams die hard. I am amazed at what I see.

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