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I think that the next two years are going to be very tough for housing. More foreclosures are looming in the pipeline and growing. Unemployment is 8.2% to 11.00% in CA depending on how you calculate it. These two things alone are disasterous for housing prices.
Just look what has happened to the various asset markets in the last 8 months. $30T lost in equities, 25% lost in housing value. Unemployment reaching multi-decade highs. All of this and the recession is not quite a year old. Earning US$ is getting tougher and credit is drying up, this will strenghten the US$’s that exist as long as the govt does not go completely insane with their spending. But look what they’re up against in money destruction! It’s kinda like trying to kick start a 747.
So, yes, I am hanging onto US$ and watching the show. It’s a once in a life time thing for most of us.

[peterb]

I think that the next two years are going to be very tough for housing. More foreclosures are looming in the pipeline and growing. Unemployment is 8.2% to 11.00% in CA depending on how you calculate it. These two things alone are disasterous for housing prices.
Just look what has happened to the various asset markets in the last 8 months. $30T lost in equities, 25% lost in housing value. Unemployment reaching multi-decade highs. All of this and the recession is not quite a year old. Earning US$ is getting tougher and credit is drying up, this will strenghten the US$’s that exist as long as the govt does not go completely insane with their spending. But look what they’re up against in money destruction! It’s kinda like trying to kick start a 747.
So, yes, I am hanging onto US$ and watching the show. It’s a once in a life time thing for most of us.

[peterb]

I think that the next two years are going to be very tough for housing. More foreclosures are looming in the pipeline and growing. Unemployment is 8.2% to 11.00% in CA depending on how you calculate it. These two things alone are disasterous for housing prices.
Just look what has happened to the various asset markets in the last 8 months. $30T lost in equities, 25% lost in housing value. Unemployment reaching multi-decade highs. All of this and the recession is not quite a year old. Earning US$ is getting tougher and credit is drying up, this will strenghten the US$’s that exist as long as the govt does not go completely insane with their spending. But look what they’re up against in money destruction! It’s kinda like trying to kick start a 747.
So, yes, I am hanging onto US$ and watching the show. It’s a once in a life time thing for most of us.

[peterb]

I think that the next two years are going to be very tough for housing. More foreclosures are looming in the pipeline and growing. Unemployment is 8.2% to 11.00% in CA depending on how you calculate it. These two things alone are disasterous for housing prices.
Just look what has happened to the various asset markets in the last 8 months. $30T lost in equities, 25% lost in housing value. Unemployment reaching multi-decade highs. All of this and the recession is not quite a year old. Earning US$ is getting tougher and credit is drying up, this will strenghten the US$’s that exist as long as the govt does not go completely insane with their spending. But look what they’re up against in money destruction! It’s kinda like trying to kick start a 747.
So, yes, I am hanging onto US$ and watching the show. It’s a once in a life time thing for most of us.

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Yes, Chris, I tend to share your view of the US$. It seems to be working out exactly as it should and the fact that so many people are so sure that it should collapse, gives me support as well. Mainly since their logic lacks any real foundation except recent history when the US$ was driven down for 4 years.
I think that gold will probably get a bit cheaper, but it is not behaving like a commodity right now, but more like money. Compared to the CRB, gold has done very well. And, this is close to it’s behavior from 1929 to 1932. So, from a relative strength view, it’s hanging in there fairly well. Technically, I think it’s supported in the mid $600’s, which we may see here soon. But given the markets instability, it may not stay there too long if it does indeed touch it again. I hold the view that this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. And gold was beaten down in those scenarios types…as early 80’s and 90’s it did decline. But nonetheless, I think the US$ is the smart play here for quite a while. I have a little physical gold, but that’s mostly my personal paranoia. Not logic.
If anyone were to seek my advice for investments in the next year, I would tell them get long US$ and hold on to them!! Bargains await those with cash and patience in the coming years.

[peterb]

Yes, Chris, I tend to share your view of the US$. It seems to be working out exactly as it should and the fact that so many people are so sure that it should collapse, gives me support as well. Mainly since their logic lacks any real foundation except recent history when the US$ was driven down for 4 years.
I think that gold will probably get a bit cheaper, but it is not behaving like a commodity right now, but more like money. Compared to the CRB, gold has done very well. And, this is close to it’s behavior from 1929 to 1932. So, from a relative strength view, it’s hanging in there fairly well. Technically, I think it’s supported in the mid $600’s, which we may see here soon. But given the markets instability, it may not stay there too long if it does indeed touch it again. I hold the view that this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. And gold was beaten down in those scenarios types…as early 80’s and 90’s it did decline. But nonetheless, I think the US$ is the smart play here for quite a while. I have a little physical gold, but that’s mostly my personal paranoia. Not logic.
If anyone were to seek my advice for investments in the next year, I would tell them get long US$ and hold on to them!! Bargains await those with cash and patience in the coming years.

[peterb]

Yes, Chris, I tend to share your view of the US$. It seems to be working out exactly as it should and the fact that so many people are so sure that it should collapse, gives me support as well. Mainly since their logic lacks any real foundation except recent history when the US$ was driven down for 4 years.
I think that gold will probably get a bit cheaper, but it is not behaving like a commodity right now, but more like money. Compared to the CRB, gold has done very well. And, this is close to it’s behavior from 1929 to 1932. So, from a relative strength view, it’s hanging in there fairly well. Technically, I think it’s supported in the mid $600’s, which we may see here soon. But given the markets instability, it may not stay there too long if it does indeed touch it again. I hold the view that this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. And gold was beaten down in those scenarios types…as early 80’s and 90’s it did decline. But nonetheless, I think the US$ is the smart play here for quite a while. I have a little physical gold, but that’s mostly my personal paranoia. Not logic.
If anyone were to seek my advice for investments in the next year, I would tell them get long US$ and hold on to them!! Bargains await those with cash and patience in the coming years.

[peterb]

Yes, Chris, I tend to share your view of the US$. It seems to be working out exactly as it should and the fact that so many people are so sure that it should collapse, gives me support as well. Mainly since their logic lacks any real foundation except recent history when the US$ was driven down for 4 years.
I think that gold will probably get a bit cheaper, but it is not behaving like a commodity right now, but more like money. Compared to the CRB, gold has done very well. And, this is close to it’s behavior from 1929 to 1932. So, from a relative strength view, it’s hanging in there fairly well. Technically, I think it’s supported in the mid $600’s, which we may see here soon. But given the markets instability, it may not stay there too long if it does indeed touch it again. I hold the view that this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. And gold was beaten down in those scenarios types…as early 80’s and 90’s it did decline. But nonetheless, I think the US$ is the smart play here for quite a while. I have a little physical gold, but that’s mostly my personal paranoia. Not logic.
If anyone were to seek my advice for investments in the next year, I would tell them get long US$ and hold on to them!! Bargains await those with cash and patience in the coming years.

[peterb]

Yes, Chris, I tend to share your view of the US$. It seems to be working out exactly as it should and the fact that so many people are so sure that it should collapse, gives me support as well. Mainly since their logic lacks any real foundation except recent history when the US$ was driven down for 4 years.
I think that gold will probably get a bit cheaper, but it is not behaving like a commodity right now, but more like money. Compared to the CRB, gold has done very well. And, this is close to it’s behavior from 1929 to 1932. So, from a relative strength view, it’s hanging in there fairly well. Technically, I think it’s supported in the mid $600’s, which we may see here soon. But given the markets instability, it may not stay there too long if it does indeed touch it again. I hold the view that this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. And gold was beaten down in those scenarios types…as early 80’s and 90’s it did decline. But nonetheless, I think the US$ is the smart play here for quite a while. I have a little physical gold, but that’s mostly my personal paranoia. Not logic.
If anyone were to seek my advice for investments in the next year, I would tell them get long US$ and hold on to them!! Bargains await those with cash and patience in the coming years.

[peterb]

Here’s an article written by a guy that’s a currency pro. It’s logical and follows a strong historical pattern for accuracy. The US$ is very likely to remain strong for quite some time:
http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=8115

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