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December 10, 2008 at 6:52 PM in reply to: Old Forum topic deserves re-visit: bubble in treasuries #314310December 10, 2008 at 6:52 PM in reply to: Old Forum topic deserves re-visit: bubble in treasuries #314342
peterb
ParticipantI think we’re turning Japanese…the 1990’s kind.
December 10, 2008 at 6:52 PM in reply to: Old Forum topic deserves re-visit: bubble in treasuries #314364peterb
ParticipantI think we’re turning Japanese…the 1990’s kind.
December 10, 2008 at 6:52 PM in reply to: Old Forum topic deserves re-visit: bubble in treasuries #314434peterb
ParticipantI think we’re turning Japanese…the 1990’s kind.
December 10, 2008 at 6:48 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #313942peterb
ParticipantOptions that are deep inthe money usually have a delta near to 1. That’s a good way to play them. You can usually get the deal for about half the stock price.
Future’s are an animal I dont know much about and move with amazing speed and leverage. With ETF’s it’s slower world where I dont get the short squeeze as well. I dont ever stay in them very long anyway. I guess if I really understood futures better it may be a way to go. But I’ve heard the ES is not the kind of thing to be in very often.
December 10, 2008 at 6:48 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #314300peterb
ParticipantOptions that are deep inthe money usually have a delta near to 1. That’s a good way to play them. You can usually get the deal for about half the stock price.
Future’s are an animal I dont know much about and move with amazing speed and leverage. With ETF’s it’s slower world where I dont get the short squeeze as well. I dont ever stay in them very long anyway. I guess if I really understood futures better it may be a way to go. But I’ve heard the ES is not the kind of thing to be in very often.
December 10, 2008 at 6:48 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #314332peterb
ParticipantOptions that are deep inthe money usually have a delta near to 1. That’s a good way to play them. You can usually get the deal for about half the stock price.
Future’s are an animal I dont know much about and move with amazing speed and leverage. With ETF’s it’s slower world where I dont get the short squeeze as well. I dont ever stay in them very long anyway. I guess if I really understood futures better it may be a way to go. But I’ve heard the ES is not the kind of thing to be in very often.
December 10, 2008 at 6:48 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #314354peterb
ParticipantOptions that are deep inthe money usually have a delta near to 1. That’s a good way to play them. You can usually get the deal for about half the stock price.
Future’s are an animal I dont know much about and move with amazing speed and leverage. With ETF’s it’s slower world where I dont get the short squeeze as well. I dont ever stay in them very long anyway. I guess if I really understood futures better it may be a way to go. But I’ve heard the ES is not the kind of thing to be in very often.
December 10, 2008 at 6:48 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #314424peterb
ParticipantOptions that are deep inthe money usually have a delta near to 1. That’s a good way to play them. You can usually get the deal for about half the stock price.
Future’s are an animal I dont know much about and move with amazing speed and leverage. With ETF’s it’s slower world where I dont get the short squeeze as well. I dont ever stay in them very long anyway. I guess if I really understood futures better it may be a way to go. But I’ve heard the ES is not the kind of thing to be in very often.
peterb
ParticipantI think inflations day has come and gone. That’s why so many people have a hard time understanding and accepting deflation. Deflation’s something they’ve never really experienced as fiat currency countries have forced an inflationary world on us. But we’ve had huge inflation since 2002. Mostly in the form of incredible credit/debt growth. Which is now imploding. And this is causing deflation. $30T lost in the markets this year, $3T in housing valuation, credit card defaults soaring and now unemployment gaining as well. There’s no where for the consumer to turn for access to funds and wages have downward pressure. But real wages have not been rising for many years. This is the end game to a consumer driven economy. The US is now at a point where it has to add value and produce something that is valuable to others.
I think we’ll be in a deflationary mode for some time to come. Look at all that’s been lost and the easy credit that’s gone. And will probably not be coming back for some time.
peterb
ParticipantI think inflations day has come and gone. That’s why so many people have a hard time understanding and accepting deflation. Deflation’s something they’ve never really experienced as fiat currency countries have forced an inflationary world on us. But we’ve had huge inflation since 2002. Mostly in the form of incredible credit/debt growth. Which is now imploding. And this is causing deflation. $30T lost in the markets this year, $3T in housing valuation, credit card defaults soaring and now unemployment gaining as well. There’s no where for the consumer to turn for access to funds and wages have downward pressure. But real wages have not been rising for many years. This is the end game to a consumer driven economy. The US is now at a point where it has to add value and produce something that is valuable to others.
I think we’ll be in a deflationary mode for some time to come. Look at all that’s been lost and the easy credit that’s gone. And will probably not be coming back for some time.
peterb
ParticipantI think inflations day has come and gone. That’s why so many people have a hard time understanding and accepting deflation. Deflation’s something they’ve never really experienced as fiat currency countries have forced an inflationary world on us. But we’ve had huge inflation since 2002. Mostly in the form of incredible credit/debt growth. Which is now imploding. And this is causing deflation. $30T lost in the markets this year, $3T in housing valuation, credit card defaults soaring and now unemployment gaining as well. There’s no where for the consumer to turn for access to funds and wages have downward pressure. But real wages have not been rising for many years. This is the end game to a consumer driven economy. The US is now at a point where it has to add value and produce something that is valuable to others.
I think we’ll be in a deflationary mode for some time to come. Look at all that’s been lost and the easy credit that’s gone. And will probably not be coming back for some time.
peterb
ParticipantI think inflations day has come and gone. That’s why so many people have a hard time understanding and accepting deflation. Deflation’s something they’ve never really experienced as fiat currency countries have forced an inflationary world on us. But we’ve had huge inflation since 2002. Mostly in the form of incredible credit/debt growth. Which is now imploding. And this is causing deflation. $30T lost in the markets this year, $3T in housing valuation, credit card defaults soaring and now unemployment gaining as well. There’s no where for the consumer to turn for access to funds and wages have downward pressure. But real wages have not been rising for many years. This is the end game to a consumer driven economy. The US is now at a point where it has to add value and produce something that is valuable to others.
I think we’ll be in a deflationary mode for some time to come. Look at all that’s been lost and the easy credit that’s gone. And will probably not be coming back for some time.
peterb
ParticipantI think inflations day has come and gone. That’s why so many people have a hard time understanding and accepting deflation. Deflation’s something they’ve never really experienced as fiat currency countries have forced an inflationary world on us. But we’ve had huge inflation since 2002. Mostly in the form of incredible credit/debt growth. Which is now imploding. And this is causing deflation. $30T lost in the markets this year, $3T in housing valuation, credit card defaults soaring and now unemployment gaining as well. There’s no where for the consumer to turn for access to funds and wages have downward pressure. But real wages have not been rising for many years. This is the end game to a consumer driven economy. The US is now at a point where it has to add value and produce something that is valuable to others.
I think we’ll be in a deflationary mode for some time to come. Look at all that’s been lost and the easy credit that’s gone. And will probably not be coming back for some time.
peterb
ParticipantThat was my initial reaction as well. But it’s more about supply/demand for the actual interest rate or cost of the money. As now the market has lower rates, but down payments have become important again as has strict documentation. Risk will be better mitigated through lower LTV’s and better documentation. I think we’re seeing this now and will see it more inthe future. I would not be surprised to see real CPI going negative in 2009. Check out ECRI’s website for more on this. So, in essence the old 6% is the new 4%. Economics takes on a different set of rules when inflation is now longer running the game.
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