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December 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315213December 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315247
peterb
ParticipantTBT. If you time it right. Could be very good.
December 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315269ParticipantTBT. If you time it right. Could be very good.
December 12, 2008 at 1:09 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315340ParticipantTBT. If you time it right. Could be very good.
ParticipantGood point to recount economic history, as I am a believer in it repeating itself, too. I believe your only mistake is in correlating this recession with the last two or three. This one has all the earmarks and fidelity of 1825, 1873 and 1929. They were massive credit bubbles that burst after many, many years of growth. They had multiple waves of corrections down, between which there were some strong relief rally’s.
But logic should prevail and act as a confirmation of this as well. I have a lot of trouble determining what will cause employment to rise. Or more importantly, what will cause demand to rise and get the level of profitability needed to sustain the current P/E levels that are now projected and reflected in the market prices. We essentially need to find another real estate bubble to create or other such industry for the money to flow into. But nothing seems to be coming to the surface. I actually think this was the impending scenario in 2002, but extremely cheap money ran into housing and we were off to the races. That’s all imploding now.
I stand by my thesis that the last 6 years was almost entirely a debt driven growth with little if any productivity gains or anything else of a sustainable nature. So we now must give it all back as it was not real nor sustainable. And if you count the DotCom as a bubble as well, then we need to give it back to about 1998 levels. I think this is very possible as well as an over correction to the downside as the market regains its mean.
Only time will tell, but we need another bubble and I dont see it anywhere. I think we are now stuck in reality and have to face the fact that the creation of wealth can only be sustained with innovation and gains in productivity and invention. These tend to take more time than creating bubbles.ParticipantGood point to recount economic history, as I am a believer in it repeating itself, too. I believe your only mistake is in correlating this recession with the last two or three. This one has all the earmarks and fidelity of 1825, 1873 and 1929. They were massive credit bubbles that burst after many, many years of growth. They had multiple waves of corrections down, between which there were some strong relief rally’s.
But logic should prevail and act as a confirmation of this as well. I have a lot of trouble determining what will cause employment to rise. Or more importantly, what will cause demand to rise and get the level of profitability needed to sustain the current P/E levels that are now projected and reflected in the market prices. We essentially need to find another real estate bubble to create or other such industry for the money to flow into. But nothing seems to be coming to the surface. I actually think this was the impending scenario in 2002, but extremely cheap money ran into housing and we were off to the races. That’s all imploding now.
I stand by my thesis that the last 6 years was almost entirely a debt driven growth with little if any productivity gains or anything else of a sustainable nature. So we now must give it all back as it was not real nor sustainable. And if you count the DotCom as a bubble as well, then we need to give it back to about 1998 levels. I think this is very possible as well as an over correction to the downside as the market regains its mean.
Only time will tell, but we need another bubble and I dont see it anywhere. I think we are now stuck in reality and have to face the fact that the creation of wealth can only be sustained with innovation and gains in productivity and invention. These tend to take more time than creating bubbles.ParticipantGood point to recount economic history, as I am a believer in it repeating itself, too. I believe your only mistake is in correlating this recession with the last two or three. This one has all the earmarks and fidelity of 1825, 1873 and 1929. They were massive credit bubbles that burst after many, many years of growth. They had multiple waves of corrections down, between which there were some strong relief rally’s.
But logic should prevail and act as a confirmation of this as well. I have a lot of trouble determining what will cause employment to rise. Or more importantly, what will cause demand to rise and get the level of profitability needed to sustain the current P/E levels that are now projected and reflected in the market prices. We essentially need to find another real estate bubble to create or other such industry for the money to flow into. But nothing seems to be coming to the surface. I actually think this was the impending scenario in 2002, but extremely cheap money ran into housing and we were off to the races. That’s all imploding now.
I stand by my thesis that the last 6 years was almost entirely a debt driven growth with little if any productivity gains or anything else of a sustainable nature. So we now must give it all back as it was not real nor sustainable. And if you count the DotCom as a bubble as well, then we need to give it back to about 1998 levels. I think this is very possible as well as an over correction to the downside as the market regains its mean.
Only time will tell, but we need another bubble and I dont see it anywhere. I think we are now stuck in reality and have to face the fact that the creation of wealth can only be sustained with innovation and gains in productivity and invention. These tend to take more time than creating bubbles.ParticipantGood point to recount economic history, as I am a believer in it repeating itself, too. I believe your only mistake is in correlating this recession with the last two or three. This one has all the earmarks and fidelity of 1825, 1873 and 1929. They were massive credit bubbles that burst after many, many years of growth. They had multiple waves of corrections down, between which there were some strong relief rally’s.
But logic should prevail and act as a confirmation of this as well. I have a lot of trouble determining what will cause employment to rise. Or more importantly, what will cause demand to rise and get the level of profitability needed to sustain the current P/E levels that are now projected and reflected in the market prices. We essentially need to find another real estate bubble to create or other such industry for the money to flow into. But nothing seems to be coming to the surface. I actually think this was the impending scenario in 2002, but extremely cheap money ran into housing and we were off to the races. That’s all imploding now.
I stand by my thesis that the last 6 years was almost entirely a debt driven growth with little if any productivity gains or anything else of a sustainable nature. So we now must give it all back as it was not real nor sustainable. And if you count the DotCom as a bubble as well, then we need to give it back to about 1998 levels. I think this is very possible as well as an over correction to the downside as the market regains its mean.
Only time will tell, but we need another bubble and I dont see it anywhere. I think we are now stuck in reality and have to face the fact that the creation of wealth can only be sustained with innovation and gains in productivity and invention. These tend to take more time than creating bubbles.ParticipantGood point to recount economic history, as I am a believer in it repeating itself, too. I believe your only mistake is in correlating this recession with the last two or three. This one has all the earmarks and fidelity of 1825, 1873 and 1929. They were massive credit bubbles that burst after many, many years of growth. They had multiple waves of corrections down, between which there were some strong relief rally’s.
But logic should prevail and act as a confirmation of this as well. I have a lot of trouble determining what will cause employment to rise. Or more importantly, what will cause demand to rise and get the level of profitability needed to sustain the current P/E levels that are now projected and reflected in the market prices. We essentially need to find another real estate bubble to create or other such industry for the money to flow into. But nothing seems to be coming to the surface. I actually think this was the impending scenario in 2002, but extremely cheap money ran into housing and we were off to the races. That’s all imploding now.
I stand by my thesis that the last 6 years was almost entirely a debt driven growth with little if any productivity gains or anything else of a sustainable nature. So we now must give it all back as it was not real nor sustainable. And if you count the DotCom as a bubble as well, then we need to give it back to about 1998 levels. I think this is very possible as well as an over correction to the downside as the market regains its mean.
Only time will tell, but we need another bubble and I dont see it anywhere. I think we are now stuck in reality and have to face the fact that the creation of wealth can only be sustained with innovation and gains in productivity and invention. These tend to take more time than creating bubbles.December 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #314816Participantstockstradr- dont know if you’ve read these books yet or not, but I’ve read at least 30 books on investing and these two are by far the best and have proven accurate for me over the last 2 decades.
How to Trade Stocks, by Jesse Livermore, written in 1940.
The Successful Investor, by William O’Neil, 2003.They basically back eachother up. But their logic and approach to stock investing can be used for virtually any investment type. I’ve reread both books at least 3 times each. Better each time.
December 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315173Participantstockstradr- dont know if you’ve read these books yet or not, but I’ve read at least 30 books on investing and these two are by far the best and have proven accurate for me over the last 2 decades.
How to Trade Stocks, by Jesse Livermore, written in 1940.
The Successful Investor, by William O’Neil, 2003.They basically back eachother up. But their logic and approach to stock investing can be used for virtually any investment type. I’ve reread both books at least 3 times each. Better each time.
December 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315207Participantstockstradr- dont know if you’ve read these books yet or not, but I’ve read at least 30 books on investing and these two are by far the best and have proven accurate for me over the last 2 decades.
How to Trade Stocks, by Jesse Livermore, written in 1940.
The Successful Investor, by William O’Neil, 2003.They basically back eachother up. But their logic and approach to stock investing can be used for virtually any investment type. I’ve reread both books at least 3 times each. Better each time.
December 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315229Participantstockstradr- dont know if you’ve read these books yet or not, but I’ve read at least 30 books on investing and these two are by far the best and have proven accurate for me over the last 2 decades.
How to Trade Stocks, by Jesse Livermore, written in 1940.
The Successful Investor, by William O’Neil, 2003.They basically back eachother up. But their logic and approach to stock investing can be used for virtually any investment type. I’ve reread both books at least 3 times each. Better each time.
December 12, 2008 at 12:31 PM in reply to: How high goes the rally on Obama infrastructure spending? #315300Participantstockstradr- dont know if you’ve read these books yet or not, but I’ve read at least 30 books on investing and these two are by far the best and have proven accurate for me over the last 2 decades.
How to Trade Stocks, by Jesse Livermore, written in 1940.
The Successful Investor, by William O’Neil, 2003.They basically back eachother up. But their logic and approach to stock investing can be used for virtually any investment type. I’ve reread both books at least 3 times each. Better each time.
Participantparamount–exactly!!
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