[peterb]

The Fed is a cartel of the highest order. This recent near collapse of our system is making it all too obvious. Look how it’s saving it’s buddies and letting everyone else twist in the wind! If you’re friends with the ex-Golden Slacks crew, you’re really are golden. They will take every cent from the tax payers to keep you in good shape. And we’re letting them do it. The Fed must be disolved. It’s theft!!!From the people!!!

[peterb]

The Fed is a cartel of the highest order. This recent near collapse of our system is making it all too obvious. Look how it’s saving it’s buddies and letting everyone else twist in the wind! If you’re friends with the ex-Golden Slacks crew, you’re really are golden. They will take every cent from the tax payers to keep you in good shape. And we’re letting them do it. The Fed must be disolved. It’s theft!!!From the people!!!

[peterb]

The Fed is a cartel of the highest order. This recent near collapse of our system is making it all too obvious. Look how it’s saving it’s buddies and letting everyone else twist in the wind! If you’re friends with the ex-Golden Slacks crew, you’re really are golden. They will take every cent from the tax payers to keep you in good shape. And we’re letting them do it. The Fed must be disolved. It’s theft!!!From the people!!!

[peterb]

The Fed is a cartel of the highest order. This recent near collapse of our system is making it all too obvious. Look how it’s saving it’s buddies and letting everyone else twist in the wind! If you’re friends with the ex-Golden Slacks crew, you’re really are golden. They will take every cent from the tax payers to keep you in good shape. And we’re letting them do it. The Fed must be disolved. It’s theft!!!From the people!!!

[peterb]

I cant resist coming back to this one as well. It was said about the great depression that the smart money was lost in 1930. As in, they jumped into the sucker rally after the October 1929 crash and got slaughtered on the next leg down. This bear market started in Oct 2007. So we’re in about a year or so. All recent data suggests at least another year. Especially since non of the govt stimulus seems to be doing anything except loading up banks balance sheets. The multiplier effect is not gaining it’s declining.Demand destruction is gaining as well, not declining.
But, by the govt allowing the banking system to survive and not mark to reality, this is looking a lot like Japan in 1990’s. And I agree that the govt needs to do this as that injecting reality in our banking system would be fatal. IMO. It’s that bad and systemic. But repairing this type of damage does not happen in a year or two. That’s why the delay tactic by our govt. They’re giving the banks time to syphon off the garbage and start to restore their solvency. But this is the hardest time to do this. If they pull it off, it will be a long time in coming.

To think that we can somehow magically get rid of these huge problems is rather short-sighted. This is not like the last few contractions we’ve experienced. It’s global and deep. Banks around the world are insolvent, auto industry sales down 30% or more, global housing values cratering, Stock market losses at $30T. And who knows exactly how bad the whole CDS,CDO’s etc really are. Even the guys that invented them cant say!!
I see no way that this is subsiding in 2009. And to think that the new administration can somehow change all this….well, rebuilding bridges and roads will not put Humpty back together again. Shovel jobs will not be an adequate replacement for the FIRE economy that we’re now losing.

[peterb]

I cant resist coming back to this one as well. It was said about the great depression that the smart money was lost in 1930. As in, they jumped into the sucker rally after the October 1929 crash and got slaughtered on the next leg down. This bear market started in Oct 2007. So we’re in about a year or so. All recent data suggests at least another year. Especially since non of the govt stimulus seems to be doing anything except loading up banks balance sheets. The multiplier effect is not gaining it’s declining.Demand destruction is gaining as well, not declining.
But, by the govt allowing the banking system to survive and not mark to reality, this is looking a lot like Japan in 1990’s. And I agree that the govt needs to do this as that injecting reality in our banking system would be fatal. IMO. It’s that bad and systemic. But repairing this type of damage does not happen in a year or two. That’s why the delay tactic by our govt. They’re giving the banks time to syphon off the garbage and start to restore their solvency. But this is the hardest time to do this. If they pull it off, it will be a long time in coming.

To think that we can somehow magically get rid of these huge problems is rather short-sighted. This is not like the last few contractions we’ve experienced. It’s global and deep. Banks around the world are insolvent, auto industry sales down 30% or more, global housing values cratering, Stock market losses at $30T. And who knows exactly how bad the whole CDS,CDO’s etc really are. Even the guys that invented them cant say!!
I see no way that this is subsiding in 2009. And to think that the new administration can somehow change all this….well, rebuilding bridges and roads will not put Humpty back together again. Shovel jobs will not be an adequate replacement for the FIRE economy that we’re now losing.

[peterb]

I cant resist coming back to this one as well. It was said about the great depression that the smart money was lost in 1930. As in, they jumped into the sucker rally after the October 1929 crash and got slaughtered on the next leg down. This bear market started in Oct 2007. So we’re in about a year or so. All recent data suggests at least another year. Especially since non of the govt stimulus seems to be doing anything except loading up banks balance sheets. The multiplier effect is not gaining it’s declining.Demand destruction is gaining as well, not declining.
But, by the govt allowing the banking system to survive and not mark to reality, this is looking a lot like Japan in 1990’s. And I agree that the govt needs to do this as that injecting reality in our banking system would be fatal. IMO. It’s that bad and systemic. But repairing this type of damage does not happen in a year or two. That’s why the delay tactic by our govt. They’re giving the banks time to syphon off the garbage and start to restore their solvency. But this is the hardest time to do this. If they pull it off, it will be a long time in coming.

To think that we can somehow magically get rid of these huge problems is rather short-sighted. This is not like the last few contractions we’ve experienced. It’s global and deep. Banks around the world are insolvent, auto industry sales down 30% or more, global housing values cratering, Stock market losses at $30T. And who knows exactly how bad the whole CDS,CDO’s etc really are. Even the guys that invented them cant say!!
I see no way that this is subsiding in 2009. And to think that the new administration can somehow change all this….well, rebuilding bridges and roads will not put Humpty back together again. Shovel jobs will not be an adequate replacement for the FIRE economy that we’re now losing.

[peterb]

I cant resist coming back to this one as well. It was said about the great depression that the smart money was lost in 1930. As in, they jumped into the sucker rally after the October 1929 crash and got slaughtered on the next leg down. This bear market started in Oct 2007. So we’re in about a year or so. All recent data suggests at least another year. Especially since non of the govt stimulus seems to be doing anything except loading up banks balance sheets. The multiplier effect is not gaining it’s declining.Demand destruction is gaining as well, not declining.
But, by the govt allowing the banking system to survive and not mark to reality, this is looking a lot like Japan in 1990’s. And I agree that the govt needs to do this as that injecting reality in our banking system would be fatal. IMO. It’s that bad and systemic. But repairing this type of damage does not happen in a year or two. That’s why the delay tactic by our govt. They’re giving the banks time to syphon off the garbage and start to restore their solvency. But this is the hardest time to do this. If they pull it off, it will be a long time in coming.

To think that we can somehow magically get rid of these huge problems is rather short-sighted. This is not like the last few contractions we’ve experienced. It’s global and deep. Banks around the world are insolvent, auto industry sales down 30% or more, global housing values cratering, Stock market losses at $30T. And who knows exactly how bad the whole CDS,CDO’s etc really are. Even the guys that invented them cant say!!
I see no way that this is subsiding in 2009. And to think that the new administration can somehow change all this….well, rebuilding bridges and roads will not put Humpty back together again. Shovel jobs will not be an adequate replacement for the FIRE economy that we’re now losing.

[peterb]

I cant resist coming back to this one as well. It was said about the great depression that the smart money was lost in 1930. As in, they jumped into the sucker rally after the October 1929 crash and got slaughtered on the next leg down. This bear market started in Oct 2007. So we’re in about a year or so. All recent data suggests at least another year. Especially since non of the govt stimulus seems to be doing anything except loading up banks balance sheets. The multiplier effect is not gaining it’s declining.Demand destruction is gaining as well, not declining.
But, by the govt allowing the banking system to survive and not mark to reality, this is looking a lot like Japan in 1990’s. And I agree that the govt needs to do this as that injecting reality in our banking system would be fatal. IMO. It’s that bad and systemic. But repairing this type of damage does not happen in a year or two. That’s why the delay tactic by our govt. They’re giving the banks time to syphon off the garbage and start to restore their solvency. But this is the hardest time to do this. If they pull it off, it will be a long time in coming.

To think that we can somehow magically get rid of these huge problems is rather short-sighted. This is not like the last few contractions we’ve experienced. It’s global and deep. Banks around the world are insolvent, auto industry sales down 30% or more, global housing values cratering, Stock market losses at $30T. And who knows exactly how bad the whole CDS,CDO’s etc really are. Even the guys that invented them cant say!!
I see no way that this is subsiding in 2009. And to think that the new administration can somehow change all this….well, rebuilding bridges and roads will not put Humpty back together again. Shovel jobs will not be an adequate replacement for the FIRE economy that we’re now losing.

[peterb]

Check out the county property tax roles. I think it’s public record and on-line. See who’s way behind in paying their property taxes. I think this would be a strong indicator of someone’s financial position on the property. As it takes the govt 5 years of non-payment before they actually go after the property. So it may be one of the first things people start to avoid paying in more trying times. Just a thought.

[peterb]

Check out the county property tax roles. I think it’s public record and on-line. See who’s way behind in paying their property taxes. I think this would be a strong indicator of someone’s financial position on the property. As it takes the govt 5 years of non-payment before they actually go after the property. So it may be one of the first things people start to avoid paying in more trying times. Just a thought.

[peterb]

Check out the county property tax roles. I think it’s public record and on-line. See who’s way behind in paying their property taxes. I think this would be a strong indicator of someone’s financial position on the property. As it takes the govt 5 years of non-payment before they actually go after the property. So it may be one of the first things people start to avoid paying in more trying times. Just a thought.

[peterb]

Check out the county property tax roles. I think it’s public record and on-line. See who’s way behind in paying their property taxes. I think this would be a strong indicator of someone’s financial position on the property. As it takes the govt 5 years of non-payment before they actually go after the property. So it may be one of the first things people start to avoid paying in more trying times. Just a thought.

[peterb]

Check out the county property tax roles. I think it’s public record and on-line. See who’s way behind in paying their property taxes. I think this would be a strong indicator of someone’s financial position on the property. As it takes the govt 5 years of non-payment before they actually go after the property. So it may be one of the first things people start to avoid paying in more trying times. Just a thought.

[peterb]

Did I write “depression”. I dont see it. But I do think we have tremendous amounts of supply over-hang right now. Cars, Houses, shipping capacity, products from China, etc…supply destruction is way behind demand destruction. And, I think it is a “panic” that’s how these things start. But the panic is brought on by the reality of the numbers being way off predictions. Then comes the confirmation of demand destruction and the further re-adjusting of the earnings, etc…when demand keeps dwindling down. People repair cars and dont buy new ones. Keep renting a house and not buying, etc….With lay-offs ramping up and unemployement already hitting very high numbers, this trend will have legs for at least another year. When peoples livelyhoods are threatened, they go into “bunker” mode. And that’s starting to happen. Savings has started to tick-up for the first time in 15 or 20 years.

If you examine the historical mortgage interest rate charts, I think you’ll see that the rates were indeed lowest at the nadir of the last two recessions. 1993 and the end of 2002. And they were climbing in the time periods leading up to these periods. Perhaps I’m not seeing it the way you are? Not sure. Also, data from the great depression indicates that personal loan rates were very cheap in 1932 and 33. Corporate borrowing was expensive as they kept defaulting and had very sketchy collateral back-up.

A further note: If you agree that the stock market portends the functioning economy, then this latest set of drops in 2008 suggest that we are at the begining of a strong contractionary period. And they tend to run from 2 to 3 years these days. I think, if we’re lucky, we’ll get the usual this time around. But this looks like world failure to me. Every major industry in the US is in peril and housing accross the country getting hammered. This looks global and bad, when’s the last time we could say this? The hard contractions were usually sectored to specific areas, industries or countries in the recent past. Keep in mind that from 2002 to 2007 saw every asset class rise substantially in price. When was the last time that happened? Food for thought.

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