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PerryChase
ParticipantI’ve never been to Texas except for a drive-through once on a car trip. A friend who grew up in Houston left home for college and never ever intends to return. Apparently the bugs and the humidity are bad. According to him, you can’t go outdoors without insect repellent.
His parents are hardcore Republicans and he turned-out Liberal. He says when you go to the outskirts of town make sure you drive your pickup truck and watch out for the vigilantes.
December 16, 2006 at 11:46 PM in reply to: Temecula/Murrieta – how bad of a drop is coming??? #41919ParticipantYou would be an idiot to buy this house — but you’re not. 🙂
As much as you feel sorry for this guy, why would you succor him? Let him pay $3000/month to subsidize your lifestyle.
Keep on renting until houses in your area drop to where house carrying costs equal rent.
Temecula and other bedroom communities will be hit hardest in this downturn.
Your rental might go into foreclosure so start looking for a new rental house a few months before your lease expires.
Participantbgates, nobody hijacked my login. I was too busy and respond before; and I really had no clue about the details of how the WTC towers came down. I had fun reading about the conspiracy theories. I’m truely amazed that so many believe in them.
I don’t dispute that governments do sometimes conspire but it hardly ever works because of the law of unintended consequences. If the US government could conspire and manage foreign policy successfully then everything would go our way — but they don’t.
Government institutions are built over decades and there’s no way that GWB could waltz in and pull this off.
ParticipantI’m amazed that some many of you believe in conspiracy theories. I believe this government (Bush Administration) is self-serving but I don’t think that they had the foresight or the smarts to pull-off 9/11. Heck, they can’t even manage Iraq.
The government reacted to 9/11 and used it for its purposes but pulling-off such a secret operation is beyond the imagination.
ParticipantProbably related-party sales.
ParticipantWhat kind of help are you getting from the City? And what are the requirements/conditions?
ParticipantI don’t believe that they can do what you suggested. The HOA money does not go to the developer but to HOA for maintenance and reserves. If anything, the fees are low initially (to attract buyers) and rise afterwards as more maintenance is needed when the project gets older.
$380/mo is not high for a condo complex. It’s about right if you have some amenities and can be much higher in more luxurious developments.
ParticipantConsidering that most people live in their houses 5 years or less, home is not really “home” in the traditional sense. We are now a highly mobile society and we should view houses in that light.
Of course each family’s situation is different but mobility and liquidity are important factors for the vast majority of the population.
BTW, a highly mobile society is great for the RE industry because is creates churn. Brokers don’t really care about appreciation. They would much rather have growth in transactions.
ParticipantSurveyor, real estate investing is a full time job and perhaps that’s what you’re doing. Just like any industry there’re some people who are good at what they do and can make money during ups and downs.
However, most homeowners will never see the 20-30% return you’re talking about. Historically, RE increases at the rate of inflation, including increases in square footage or better construction for the typical house. Like Robert Shiller said, if RE increased at 10% per year, the majority of us would not be able to afford a house. Look at houses in 1900 and compound that annually 10% and see what you get today! Look at $1000 invested in the Dow in 1900 and see what you have today.
The myth is that everyone can participate in real estate investing. But it’s a job for professionals.
ParticipantEven as a homeowner I support renting rather than buying. My circumstances are different than most people’s. Most buyers live in their homes 5 years. If you don’t believe me, pick a few properties and look at this resale histories on sdlookup.com.
The best way to look at home prices is to look at same-house price histories and listings. Same with renting, look at how much it would cost you to “carry” a house vs. rent a similar one in the same neighborhood. Think about it as buying a car for 5 years or leasing the same car for 5 years. I know that my approach is rather simplistic but I believe it applies to most buyers — especially the first-time buyers.
ParticipantInteresting topic. I haven’t read much about how the towers came down. I’ll check into the info you guys mentioned.
Participantstudenteconomist, I know something about the rental market since I’ve volunteered to find a nice place for my younger bro and his gf to live.
1) Whatever you do don’t get “desperate” and sign a lease because you just have live someplace. Try to find alternate arrangement of sign or month-to-month or 6 month lease.
2) graigslist is a great place to start. post a rent wanted ad and see if you get any responses. I recently posted on another thread about a good 1800sf house at Aviara for rent at $2100/mo.
3) word of mouth is the best way to find a rental. Having a good agent helps.
4) Don’t rent in rental only apartment complexes. Those are relatively crappy places to live. Look for condo/townhouse/sfr developments.
5) Look at the development/neighborhoods you like; review some for-sale listings and contact the listing agents. Tell them you don’t want to buy yet, but you’re looking for a rental in that area. They’ll be happy to help you, or refer you to someone who will can. Once the agents find out that you’re a newly minted “doctor” they’ll be all over you. They may pressure you to buy, but don’t insist that you want to rent.
6) Use your “doctor” status as a bargaining chip. Landland want good tenants and PhDs make better tenants than high-school graduates. Last week I was selling a bookself on craigslist and a woman left a message for me saying that she worked at Scripps and she wanted me to hold the shelves for her. I called her back and she works in the billing department. I sold the bookself to another person who came first with cash. Anyway, people play up their “status” all the time. You worked hard for your PhD so use it to get a good deal. One hundred dollars off the rent perhaps?
6) If a project is not completed yet, talk to the onsite sales agents and tell them that you’re wanting to rent. They might know an owner who wants to rent.
9) If you’re feeling ambitious. Write to the sellers directly and ask if they are willing to rent their homes.
9) Tell everyone even the grocery store clerk that you want to rent. Ask them to call you if they hear of something.
10) Consider sharing a home with a housemate. You could rent at 4-bedroom house for $3000 and your lifestyle would be much better than if you rented an apartment for $1500. I know it’s not easy to find a compatible housemate. But if you know someone, then all the better.
11) You’ll have to do some work. Take your time and something nice will come up. Then you can relax in your nice rental home and laugh of the recent buyers who are scrapping by to pay their outsize mortgages.
I had fun looking for a place for my bro. It’s better than going shopping. I just did it on my wireless laptop while watching TV after dinner.
ParticipantAnd rents will drop sharply when the thousands of condos downtown come online next year and have to be rented out. They will bring the whole apartment rental market down.
Owners will also have to rent out their properties once they realize they can’t sell them.
Remember, the rent information is reported by the SD County Apartment Association. Those are most comprised of apartment complexes that advertize in For Rent Magazine. Only idiots would rent from those places. Someone looking for a nice place for rent, at a great price, would have some patience and would look for individually owned properties. There are great deals out there — SFRs and condos.
ParticipantTo me, looking at median price movements is like looking at GDP data. A 0% – 1% growth rate sounds like we’re doing OK but its feels very painful especially in like of the expectation that living standards should increase.
That figure does not reflect the state of the local markets.
Median price is not the same house value because of the changing composition of the house sold. Let’s say that buyer expectations is to pay $500k for a SFR. If houses drop 20%, buyers will (at least initially because they are unware of market movements) continue to buy $500k but they’ll get better homes. I believe that’s what is happening now…. buyers are still thinking we’re taking a “breather” from price increases.
I was at the auto shop today and was chatting with a Realtor who was there. He drives a very expensive sedan but couldn’t afford to get his power steering pump fixed until next month. But he still believes that the Spring will bring about an upturn in the market. Yeah, many are still drinking the cool-aid.
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