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PerryChase
ParticipantI noticed that Pardee has listed their Derby Hills houses in Carmel Valley on the MLS (low $1M). They are competing favorably with resale houses and I would say that they are about $100k lower then the resales.
From the other thread about Mello Roos, it seems like Pardee is one step ahead of the market in moving their houses. From what I understand, Pardee has owned land for decades so they have tremendous margins to work with. Pardee is also owned by Weyerhaeuser, the timber company. What is Pardee’s cost? $100/sf?
I wouldn’t surprised if Pardee dropped the Derby hills prices to the high $900k by mid-year and lower than that if the houses don’t move. If that’s the case, then prices will be driven down from the premium segment.
…. ok gotta run to a late night dinner.
ParticipantChuck Hagel interview on Charlie Rose.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4101791107248270093&q=charlie+rose
ParticipantHow Republicans win if we lose in Iraq
Rosa Brooks – LA TimesBush and the GOP are shifting tactics just like Nixon did with Vietnam — to win the next election, not the war.
January 12, 2007IF YOU THINK the growing similarity between Iraq and Vietnam is tragic but inadvertent, you’re not being cynical enough.
During the first years of the Iraq war, any resemblance to Vietnam was the result of the Bush administration’s disastrous miscalculations. But today, the Iraq war is looking more and more like the Vietnam War because that’s exactly what suits the White House.
Participantjg, I didn’t say that i’m bisexual in the way you probably think. No, I don’t engage in depraved sex twice a day.
I said I had sex with men, so yes, that makes me bisexual. Most humans are bisexual and have had homosexual experiences. They are just too chicken or constrained by society to admit it. I don’t think it’s a big deal. Yes, it’s perfectly normal. You should open your eyes and see what’s going on in the real world.
ParticipantIt’s about time!!
I think that several technologies are providing transparency in RE.
1. Zillow. For the first time, the public has sale history information. Most people previously did not know that sale history was public record. Now they can view that information and that causes them to dig deeper. Now that flipper profits are out in the open, buyers are becoming resistant to becoming the GF.
Zillow opened up a can a worms. Now that buyers have information, they tend to require for more answers to their questions.
2. Craigslist. Prior to Craigslist it was more difficult to find a rental. For individual rentals, you had to buy the newspaper and waste your time calling landlords, or you had to hire and agent to find a rental for you. Either that , or pay inflated prices to live in an apartment complex.
With Craigslist you can more effectively find a rental by looking at pictures and through email.
Rental prices are also more transparent. I believe this will hold down the pricing power of the large apartment complexes.
Nearly all sales are still made through the MLS but that will change (very slowly) over time.
3. Blogs. Blogs are a great way to share information prior to buying. Buyers can gain tremendous knowledge about certain neighborhoods and the state of the general market before they buy.
4. Zip Realty. I believe that Zip Realty is the first online service that allows you to search properties without trying to refer you to an agent (because they have their own low commission agents). That allows buyers to search to their hearts’ content, in the confort of their homes, without sales pressure.
In short, before web services, Real Estate was hit and miss. Buyers relied on friends and family and word of mouth and most importantly on the Realtor whose primary motivation is to close a deal. Now, the Realtor is becoming less instrumental in transactions.
Knowledge is power and tech is delivering that knowledge to potential buyers and sellers.
More transparency in RE will hold prices down. It’ll be interesting, in a few years, to look at studies on the affect of web services on RE.
ParticipantThe opposition to Bush on Iraq is now growing bi-partisan.
Chuck Hagel criticizes Bush on Iraq.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,243139,00.html
At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing featuring Condoleezza Rice Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, a Vietnam veteran, 2008 presidential contender and longtime critic of administration policy in Iraq, received applause when he told the secretary of state that the president’s plan is “the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in this country since Vietnam. If it’s carried out, I will resist it.”http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/01/11/iraq.congress/index.html
Participant$150k for a Mission Valley condo is about right. What’s so different today from 5 years ago? Not much. Houses cost a lot more but income have stagnated.
No matter what housing prices are people will not buy without the expectations of appreciation or rental income. I predict that nominal house prices will continue to drop for 3 more years then they’ll stagnate for 10-15 years. There’ll be plenty of buying opportunties during that time.
ParticipantI remember someone on this board, previously make a call on MP Condos. Please stand up and take the credit.
ParticipantAccording to the OC Register, more and more homes are selling at a loss.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1541523.php
ParticipantMy Inbox is getting flooded. I can’t keep up with the downtown condos.
Here’s another loss. I’m now looking at straight loss now even looking at commissions and selling costs.
1501 FRONT ST #509, SD – Downtown, CA 92101**
List Price: $534,900 – $534,900
Sales History
Date Price
10/29/2004 $596,970Bedrooms: 2
Full Baths: 2
Partial Baths: 0
Square Feet: 1,106
Lot Size: N/A
Year Built: 2004
Listing Date: 01/10/07
On Market: 1 day
Type: CONDO/TH
Status: ACTIVE
MLS #: 076003016Seller to select services. Loan approval must accompany offer.
——What? They want to set conditions prior to even considering an offer? These guy will be chasing the market down, way down.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=076003016&mls=mls_sandiego&cKey=nhw2zqpw&source=SANDICOR
http://sdlookup.com/PropertyDetails/tabid/53/forumid/1/view/topics/pid/8A81A191/Default.aspxJanuary 11, 2007 at 1:05 PM in reply to: Pardee Homes Drops Mello Roos in new development in Moorpark (Ventura) #43255ParticipantYes, Bill, peel the onion further and if Pardee or the localities acted illegally, they should be made to account.
OCrenter, BobbyD, it sounds like the local officials are all in the pockets of the developers. By working the Mello Roos, the localities created another way for builders to pass development costs onto unsuspecting buyers. I also think that HOAs are also a way to shift costs onto the homeowners. All the while, governments at all levels become more and more bloated. If we, the citizens, are going to pay for everything directly, we need to work to cut government in one-half once every 10 years.
With the proliferation of HOAs, I wonder who will pay for all private road repairs 30 years from now.
ParticipantRaybyrnes, I don’t understand your planning tactics. You think that people should micro-manage their lives to arbitrage the spread between a Stafford loan and personal savings. You’re willing to consider convoluted tax implications, but you don’t think that people should rent at 1/2 the cost of carrying a house.
Most people can’t even manage their own finances, much less arbitrage interest and tax rates. Shifting some financial management responsibilities to teenage children is a bad idea.
Rent vs. buy is simple math — carrying cost is $3000/mo vs. rent of $1500/mo. I’m not talking about timing the absolute bottom of the housing market but waiting until it makes financial sense.
Rent/lease vs. buy is the first financial planning analysis any household or business should do. Ask any financial planner/CPA worth his money. Any person who doesn’t at least perform that analyis prior to buying is dumb for sure!
Sure, if you bought already, then you have to find ways to make the best of what you already own.
If you could have $1 today wouldn’t rather bank it rather than spend it on mortgage interest then stress about how to recover it tomorrow, at the expense of own sanity, personal integrity and by involving your children? I don’t have kids, but I did, I wouldn’t want to put them through financial-aid screening appointments every quarter to get something that is intended for students in need. Those are the wrong values to teach your kids. Think about how they’ll feel about their dad’s tactics.
ParticipantCow-tipping, I love your writing. Real Estate vs. Fake Estate is a classic!
A house is a house whether you rent or buy. What difference does it make anyway since most people move within 5 years anyway? You get everything when you rent, expect for pride of ownership. In exchange for that you have savings in the bank. Which would you rather have?
ParticipantMy friend lives in an old high-rise building in Chicago. His HOA are about $600/month. The HOA wants a special assessment of something like $5000 per window to replace the old windows. If I remember well he has 9 large windows = $45k!
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