[PerryChase]

Right on bugs. I don’t understand how Blackstone is going to make a killing on their Office Equity purchase.

I think that we should have live/work type spaces in San Diego — kind of like shop houses they have in other countries. Commercial downstairs and apartment upstairs. That would work well for urban areas of San Diego such as Downtown, Hillcrest, North Park, City Heights, etc…

[PerryChase]

Not just Dana Point, but all over.

Below are 2 examples of real sales, not wishful thinking. But that’s the past. 😉
——-
18 Amarante, Laguna Niguel, CA 92677
2 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,510 sq ft

08/04/2005: $780,000
06/15/2004: $520,000
8/1989: $280,000
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?o=North&zprop=25566520
——-

5211 Setting Sun Way, San Diego, CA 92121
3 beds, 3.0 baths, 2,178 sq ft

Sales History
Date Price
10/12/2005 $815,000
06/21/1995 $254,900
http://www.sdlookup.com/PropertyDetails/tabid/53/forumid/1/view/topics/pid/E485DF4E/Default.aspx
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=16791666
——–

[PerryChase]

recordsclerk, back when houses were $150k-$250k, how did you qualify for a loan on your $20k salary? A $200k house was 10x your salary. Did you have co-borrowers?

[PerryChase]

Littlepoint, what would be a good street name to look at sales information that’s representative of what you’re talking about? I’m not asking for info that might indentify you personally but some of us might be interested in researching what you talked about. Post only if you feel comfortable doing so.

My experience from the last downturn is that upscale neighborhoods tend to hold up better at the beginning of the downturn, but they get badly hammered during the protracted slump.

Well-to-do folks (especially the self-made ones) got that way thanks to leverage. But leverage also works in the opposite direction.

[PerryChase]

A Sinking Sensation for Subprime Loans
The default rate for borrowers in the sector has jumped faster than anyone was expecting, raising risks for housing and the overall economy

by Joe Niedzielski From Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2007/pi20070214_954191.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives

The gathering storm clouds over the nation’s housing and lending markets grow darker each day. Fueling the latest concerns is further fallout in the subprime mortgage loan market, where lenders offer financing to less-creditworthy buyers.

[PerryChase]

Sure, for the right price, I’d buy. But I wouldn’t live in it.

[PerryChase]

http://www.khov.com/Home/CA/767/_Properties_AUTH.htm?Region=CASNDG&Brand=KHV&Search_Type=Communities&State=CA&PerPage=25

$460k for 1800sf SFR. Way too much for Fallbrook.

Do you realize that Tom Metzger and his klan live in Fallbrook? I think that he’s in jail now but his flock might still be roaming that North County area.

http://www.adl.org/learn/ext_us/Metzger.asp

[PerryChase]

NSR, the couple featured in the story below certainly didn’t get all the information they needed. Had they gotten all the information, they would’ve saved themselves a lot of grief.

http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/02/13/housing/939picket021207.txt

http://piggington.com/lawsuit_over_overpriced_purchase

[PerryChase]

Good info, lostcat. I’ll be watching the financial pages next week.

[PerryChase]

Here’s a good link to San Diego sales history.

http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/pastyears.php

[PerryChase]

you’re not the only one, no_such_reality.

Well, think about it, the banks have been doing exactly what you’re talking about use other people’s money. But what they do is legit so they are not risking criminal prosecution. The CEOs have been getting fat and happy playing with other people’s money. I’ve learned that often times life is about form rather than substance.

Thanks to OCrenter, here’s a story of exactly what you’re talking about.
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/02/fraudera-ranch-its-family-affair.html

[PerryChase]

The employees do pay SS Tax. But do Federal agencies pay SS tax like private employers do? I don’t know. But I think not, since that would reflect negatively on the budget.

[PerryChase]

… that’s how capitalism is supposed to work. Bankruptcy reallocates resources to more efficient managers who aren’t saddled with debt and can still turn a profit. Isn’t life wonderful?

[PerryChase]

Where are the Real Estate investigative reporters? We need more revealing stories like the piece on OCrenter’s blog.
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/02/fraudera-ranch-its-family-affair.html

What did this person do with the cash out? Did he invest in other properties hoping that they would go up also? If so, was it one bad investment that caused this whole highly leveraged scheme to unravel?

[PerryChase]

To me, the business of building houses should be managed like any other manufacturing business. When business is slow, you retrench and layoff while trying to maintain profitability. Good management will anticipate the rainy days.

In the 1990s we didn’t have the large national builders in San Diego we have today. Pardee and Fieldstone were major builders. They continued building, lowered prices and built smaller houses. McMillan and Standard Pacific retrenched. Many small local builders went out of business.

Today, lumber costs are already way down, labor cost are coming down. We now need builders, land speculators and lenders to go bankrupt so land gets recycled at a lower price points. Only when that happens will we see meaningful price drop in new developments.

[Author]

Posts