[PerryChase]

I would second sparkey’s comments. You’re probably read enough of this blog to see what everyone’s opinion is. If despite reading this blog for 1 year, and despite delaying a purchase until now, you’re about to close escrow on a house, then I think that you’re pretty much decided that you’re ready to buy.

I don’t think that even our most optimistic realtor friend would predict a 50k-75k equity gain on your Escondido house in 5 years. I’m sure there are non-monetary quality-of-life benefits to owning that can justify your purchase.

Check and see if there’s a St Joseph statue buried somewhere on your new property. 😉

[PerryChase]

doofrat, i agree with the 30%-50% range depending on the neighborhood.

This threat is a good summary for everyone to put in their predictions.

We need some kind of system here to wager and keep track of predictions (but that would be online betting and illegal). I think that something like a $500 bet payable in 5 years would be kinda fun.

I already bet with my friend on the outcome in Iraq. Hope to collect in 2010, and hope he’s still my friend, ha.ha.

[PerryChase]

sdrealtor, i’ve read your posts. Here you said that you’re seen prices plateau or decline since 2004. However, you’re are fairly optimistic (by piggington standards) about Real Estate.

What is your prediction of declines for San Diego?

[PerryChase]

Shiller said he wasn't sure because that's circumspect bear speak. He didn't want to have an "I told you so" attitude of enjoying being vindicated.

In the end, Shiller also talked about Australia being a harbinger for what's to come for Real Estate in America. He was surprised that Australia slowed down then picked up again. I feel that Australia is very different from America because Autralia is small (only 20 million population, so smaller than California). Well-to-do Asians throughout the Pacific region have been buying up properties thus proping up the market.

[PerryChase]

I’m looking for similar type projects but in central San Diego. New projects I know of include Shona/Cabrillo in Point Loma, Promenade/Sunset Cove in Kearny Mesa, and Atlas in Hillcrest. Of course there are countless other resale units but those sellers are still in lala land.

Prices on the new projects are definitely coming down slowly with incentives. Builders are still hoping for a rebound but once they see the market head south, they’ll cut prices to unload the inventory.

Keep on looking. You’ll know it when the time is right.

[PerryChase]

You guys make really good points. However, you’re the exception rather then the rule. I know kids whose parents never cook so they just serve themselves to whatever is available in the cup-board or the fridge.

My mom always cooked meals for us and we were never allowed to leave the dinning table during the meal unless given permission. We also learned how to hold the silverware correctly. For mid-afternoon snacks we had fresh fruit or perhaps a chocolate croissant. And I ate everything also including horse steaks, fish eggs, goose liver and lamb’s brain (that was in France).

[PerryChase]

gunbuster, how do you manage far-flung rental propeties? I would think that the services of property managers would cut into your profit.

[PerryChase]

I’m far from elite but I really fail to see how immigrants hurt us. They bring talent, work ethic and dynamism to our country. Our economy grows thanks to immigrants. Recent immigrants do work that natives shun and that allow established citizens to concentrate on more productive things. For example if a Mexican immigrant does your gardening, you have more time to read, study and spend with your family. He’s grateful for the work and you benefit too. If a foreign scientist comes to America, he helps develop technologies that benefit us all. Isn’t that a win-win?

The key is that it’s our individual responsibility to constantly upgrade our skills so we can be productive.

Yes, immigrants use public services but they also pay more in taxes. As far as the under-the-table thing, it’s up to business owners to abide by the rules — immigrants are not the problem.

What’s wrong if people speak Spanish? If one doesn’t understand, perhaps one should learn and grow. I took 6 years of Spanish so I’m ok with that. Actually, I would love to be able to practice more. Speaking multiple languages has never hurt anyone. People in Luxembourg and Switzerland all speak 3 languages. In Scandinavian countries people all speak their native language and English at the same time. I don’t think the problem is that we speak too many languages in America.

I believe that multiculturalism is wonderful and enrich us all. And if one doesn’t like ethnic neighborhoods, one can easily remain in neighborhoods such as Carmel Valley.

Immigrant bashing is all xenophobia to me. And remember, without new arrivals, real estate prices can only go down.

[PerryChase]

asianautica, looks like you like the Airoso development. What do think of that project compared the William Lyon developments (Promenade and Sunset Cove) off the 163 (no models yet)? Prices and features are about the same and I like the central location better.

There’s also Shona/Cabrillo by Lennar in Point Loma.

[PerryChase]

anxvariety, what do you have against immigrants? By all measures they add to our culture and our economy. We used to have plain foods and boring culture. It’s much more interesting now. Think of all the new restaurants your can choose from.

[PerryChase]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5690967

Here’s the link to the NPR Talk of the Nation show. Robert Shiller is a guest also.

[PerryChase]

I don’t like to shake hands at all. I go wash my hands at the first opportunity.

[PerryChase]

I think that Rich did a fine job.  He looked older than his picture.

However, I think that Lee did a better sales job.  It's like he were trying to convince someone to buy a house.  He's saying, yes prices are high but I can help your find an affordable house.  

Next time, rather than talk about data and economics Rich might wish to talk to the audience.  Say give an example of a young professional in UTC and compare his rent and mortgage payments.  Tell them what happened to a particular buyer who bought in 2005 and sold in 2006.  Show them the amount of money he lost. 

The public is "hopeless" because they want simple answers. Talk to them in terms of monthly payments to make them see that houses are simply not affordable.   Tell them to look at zip realty and look a prices for at least 3 months before they buy…  Tell them to look at San Diego Market Monitor.  They need to see specific examples to understand.  Tell them to not fall in love with any house…  Most of all tell them to budget their payments on paper for 5 to 10 years so they can clearly understand their financial commitments.  

 

 

[PerryChase]

FormerSanDiegan,  those are also the numbers that I'm looking at.  $300k is my price point for a good condo/townhouse.  

[PerryChase]

What? You’be been following this board for one year and are only now selling? Why did you hold off?

[Author]

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