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PerryChase
ParticipantOne issue that is politics but somewhat real estate related is the transfer of the Mont Soledad cross to the Federal Government.
What is the Congress thinking barging into a local issue? This is a states rights situation. The Federal government has no business interfering.
Republicans, it appears, are religious fanatics hell-bent on imposing their values on everyone else.
ParticipantPeople are going to hate me for turning this thread to politics.. but I can’t resist taking a jap at Dubya because he appears so dumb.
He’s our president now so there’s not much that can be done. I’m however confident that history will serve him right. BTW, I used to be a Republican and I voted for Bush Sr his first run. The GOP has completely lost it.
ParticipantI wonder if GWB took his own SAT. There’s a lot more good-ol’-boys club stuff going on than most people would admit or believe.
Someone I know has a son who wanted to attend a certain university. Well he didn’t get in. But after the governor wrote a letter everything was taken care of. Maximum political contributions help solidify the relationship. Use of jets and hunting lodges help also.
ParticipantWhat ethic background is Roubini? Somewhere in the Middle East?
I noticed that he went to university in Jerusalem and Italy. But I don’t beleive that his name is Italian.He makes a lot of sense to me. I agree with you greekfire. What do you make of George Bush’s speaking abilities?
Participantbugs, I bought my first house in 1988 and I’ve followed the market ever since. I’ve read your posts and what you’ve said is exactly how I remember it. San Diego, like Manhattan, has always been a real estate mad town. It’s part of the culture.
I see a repeat of the 1990’s but uglier. The more things change, the more they remain the same.
Participantsdrealtor, it’s interesting that you found properties that are close to 30% down already (in this supposedly still stable market). Why would sellers discount their properties so much? Are they investors in trouble?
Also, would that mean that when the stats show 10% down, those properties will down further to 40-50%?
My take from following certain neighborhoods is that we’re already down 10-15%; but since those listed properties have not sold yet, they don’t reflect in the stats.
Are you thinking that the markets is down so much already that it can only turn around and go up, hence the buying opportunities you’re talking about? If one purchased those properties one would be stuck with albatrosses if the market kept on going down, down.
My feeling that one buys now only if one thinks that the market is almost done correcting. That’s the psychology and sentiment that PD and others have talked about.
ParticipantMr_Brightside, thanks for your post. I check your site periodically to stay in touch with downtown. I was downtown today, and I just wonder about all those towers hitting the market in the next few years.
Participantjg, why would native born leave the area? I would think that people who’ve been here a long time bought their houses a long time ago or have inherited their homes. It’s the new transplants who have problems affording the high prices.
August 25, 2006 at 3:06 PM in reply to: Another KPBS (89.5 FM) program on the SD housing market #33288ParticipantKPBS, PBS, NPR, CPB are different but related organizations. One can contribute to the national programs without supporting the local programs. If you give to KPBS you’re funding both the local TV and radio channels. They use part of that money to buy national programs.
Public Radio and TV used to be better but since the flap about them being biased on the left, they’ve tried to be more “balanced.” At one point, the Republicans wanted to completely cut funding for public broadcasting and the National Endowment for the Arts.
I beleive that “a great nation deserves great art.”
ParticipantVery reasonable to me. Those are the prices I’m holding out for.
That’s what happened in the 1990s and my prediction is that we’ll see that happen again.
Did you read the NY Times story? The seller listed for 1.1 Million then sold at auction for 530k. If that’s already happening in some parts of the country, I don’t see why it can’t become the norm in SD when the rough gets going.
Participantsdrealtor, I’m not sure where you stand. You said that you predict 30% drop, yet at the same time you’re optimistic about real estate and say that the market dropped enough already that buying opportunities are on the near horizon.
So, in your view, will real estate prices flatten, or will there be a 30% drop? If you think 30% drop, then there’s no need to even consider buying now.
I still think 50% drop.
BTW, if you know exactly the home that you want to buy, then ziprealty is a great product. Why use a Realtor who’ll want to suggest a whole bunch of other properties you don’t want? That’s why I hate Nordstrom. I don’t need a salesperson to help me select my clothes or give me suggestions on what goes with what. I know what I want when I see it.
ParticipantHarry Dent once said that the Dow would hit 40,000 by 2008 then will fall back down to 10,000 as the boomers liquidate for their retirement.
My anecdotal view of this is that the Generation Xers are already spending their early inheritance so there won’t be an investment boom when the Xers come to their most productive years. Plus the Xers will have to care for aging parents creating friction between the two generations. Boomers will use their money as carrots. The Xers are quite a happy-go-lucky lot so I don’t believe that they have the ambition of their parents. Boomers go for self-esteem and self-realization, whereas Xers are touchy-feely.
In terms of real estate I see a possible decline since people certainly won’t be able to care for the elderly while still have time and money to enjoy that second home they inherit. There’s a good chance, however, that we’ll see a big increase in immigration (which will help real estate) because we’ll need to import service workers to care for the elderly boomers and to help out the more indolent Xers. In this global world, the health of foreign economies will affect our asset prices (at least in the glamour cities).
The Gen Ys won’t have many children. They are more tech savvy and will lead the urban core renewal. They’ll want to live closer to the city so they can hang out with their friends. Gen Ys are likely to buy homes and share with friends and roommates. I see a coming rift between the globalized population of the large cities and the population of the traditional red-states.
I’m 38 and, yes, I feel like a contrarian stuck between generations. It doesn’t help that I’m the youngest of all my cousins and that many of my friends are younger than me. Depending on the situation, sometimes I feel 50yo and at other times, I feel 25yo.
ParticipantFormerSanDiego, the reason you pointed out is exactly why I didn’t sell and rent. It was a lifestyle decision more than an economic decision. However, I’ll wait for the right time to buy my next home and move to where I’d rather live.
Many recent immigrants I know can afford to buy houses because they lived with their parents for many years while saving up.
I’m waiting for the time when the boomers reach the age when they have to move back in with their children. Medical intervention these days lenghten lives so caregiving will be a big issue soon. My auntie in NYC is 92yo. She just moved in with my cousin’s who’s 62 and just retired. My cousin struggles daily with caring for her mom with Alzheimers.
What will such demographics do the prices of housing? It’s not so far down the road. Imagine that it’ll take 15 years for this crash to clear up. In 20 years, the early boomers will be in their 80s.
August 25, 2006 at 10:20 AM in reply to: Another KPBS (89.5 FM) program on the SD housing market #33213ParticipantTom Fudge is also bad. He doesn’t listen to his guests and his questions are frequently off the mark. I like the national NPR programs such as Talk of the Nation.
The local programming sucks so that’s why I don’t contribute to KPBS.
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