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PerryChase
ParticipantI also read Jim the Realtor’s site. He sounds like a person who is well aware of the market. I beleive that he only sells North County Coastal.
The problem with working with a Realtor right now is that the Realtor always has an expectation of making a sale (that’s the only way he gets paid). No one will work with you for a sale in 5 years! They’ll think you’re not serious.
Sure a Realtor will find you a good deal right now. But will that deal remain a good deal if the market continues to decline?
Jim also wrote that “superior” properties will only decline 10%. Will he want to sell you a “superior” property so that you’re insulated from a decline? Can a buyer today be insulated? I don’t think so. I beleive that all properties will decline at least 40%-50%. It’ll happen at different times in different neighborhoods.
PerryChase
Participantpowayseller is right. The right time to buy is at least 2 years away in my view. Don’t bother working working with a realtor for now. She/He will just “pressure” you to buy by showing you listings and telling you about the “good deals.”
Just sign up with zipreaty.com (free) and track the homes that you like on there. Then cross check with zillow.com for sold and comps. Also go to the SD County website to check sold prices if not yet available on Zillow.
http://www.sdarcc.com/arcc/services/propsales_search.aspx
If you do this for 2-3 months. You’ll see that prices are dropping. You’ll notice the following:
1. Houses that you like are not selling.
2. Prices are periodically reduced.
3. Days on Market is stretching longer.
4. More sellers are getting under-water or close to it.
5. People are pulling their homes of the market and relisting to manipulate DOM.My suggestion is a simple thing to do until you move to San Diego. Then when in SD, rent for a while and continue looking. You’ll know it when it’s the right time for you to buy. Don’t buy until you feel 100% certain.
BTW, zip realty also assigns you a realtor. You can ask that person to provide you sold listings. The nice thing about Zip is that they don’t really bother you as everything is done by email (tell them you’re too busy to be reached by phone).
Of course, there’s also Pigginton as a resource.
PerryChase
ParticipantI find that Bugs speaks with experience and fair mindedness. A great real estate professional in my view.
PerryChase
ParticipantReal Estate realists are certainly not pollyannas. They can handle some tough subjects that affect us all (as housing does).
PerryChase
ParticipantThe poster wanted the best public schools for the money. In San Diego, I think that it’s Carmel Valley. That’s why many Chinese families live there for their children. It might become become more diverse over time (a long time).
However, I agree with you, John F, about living in a culurally diverse area. That’s why I want to move out of my homogeneous neighborhood as soon as the time is right.
My Swedish ex-neighbor moved to an old house downtown despite warnings from others. She wanted her two kids to interact with different types of children. She’s not afraid of poor Black and Latino kids. In fact she thinks that it’s good for her kids to be exposed to different people. In the end, I think that her kids will have a great education, in Europe and in America, and perhaps in other parts of the world, learning to get along with all kinds of people. There are certain things that they don’t teach in school.
PerryChase
ParticipantI would agree that psychology plays of big part of everything in life.
Yes, it feels good to support your country through thick and thin. However, it takes more courage to own up to our country’s mistake and try to fix it. We don’t do everything right and Iraq is one big mistake. Staying the course will not fix that mistake.
Sometimes the best course of action is to cut the losses and move on. That’s not quitting but it’s doing the right thing (whether in personal life, business, or in politics).
PerryChase
ParticipantI think that lack of posting in other forums is not because of this Iraq thread. It’s because there’s not been much relevant real estate news lately. The news about the RE downturn, is only confirming what we already knew.
With 9 days to the elections, Iraq on the other hand, is very important news.
I hope that Piggingtons are open-minded enough to make up their own minds rather than let the media tell them what to think.
Remember that the news media generally reports what has become obvious. There’s a lag between what smart people know and what the news is reporting.
PerryChase
Participantjg, I bet that you’d still argue that Vietnam was a fight worth fighting. History, however, pretty much declared that conflict a terrible fiasco and embarrassment.
zk, I’m so happy you’re here. I feel that there’s hope for the future after all.
PerryChase
ParticipantI know that there’s some interest in the Airoso development. I looked at this project once.
What do you guys think of the Andalucia project also in Carmel Valley?
I’m not looking for me but for my auntie who’s elderly and retired to SD from Florida. Despite my advice to rent, she would feel better owning. That tells you how brain-washed many are into owning!
PerryChase
ParticipantSo many military guys on this board! I thought that military men were the bullish gung ho types (just joking :)).
PerryChase
ParticipantInteresting article on testosterone. My hunch that testosterone is declining in men is because of the processed food we eat. That processed food packaged in plastic has estrogen (and other unknown hormonal) type effect causing people to get fat (retain water, develop female type breasts, store more fat, etc…)
If you look at European teenagers, they look younger than American kids. But obesity and premature aging is now becoming prevalent in Europe also.
PerryChase
ParticipantSome time ago, I went to a seminar where Norman Swartzkoff was the speaker. He said that Vietnam might have been avoided had the leadership listened to complaints. His point was that good leaders don’t bury their heads in the sand but instead listen to what’s going on out there.
Who gave us welfare reform? Clinton!
PerryChase
ParticipantI forgot to say that if you’re coming back next summer, then it still will be a long time from good time to buy.
Why not rent in a good neighborhood for a few years? With what it would cost you in interest on a 800k mortgage, you can get a nice rental.
If you rent, the rental rates in Carmel Valley are about the same as Rancho Bernardo. I think that the coastal areas on the 5 are nicer than the inland neighborhoods along the 15.
PerryChase
ParticipantYes, deadzone, the invasion of Iraq should be classified and put away as a catastrophe and the people who got us in should be held accountable (i.e. gotten rid of).
Now, what do you need to do to mitigate the problem? That’s what should be debated.
Can we trust the people who got us into the quagmire to fix it? I think not.
What can the American people do? What we normally do when things go awry — vote those responsible out of office.
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