[permabear]

This completely fits in with my personal psychological theories (somewhat educated due to college degrees).

My theory is that animals (and hence humans) have a certain psychological rhythm, largely dictated from millions of years of seasonal changes, that impacts larger trends. Most recessions tend to last roughly a seasonal change. Even the Great Depression is better understood as a series of recessions/recoveries over a multi-seasonal time period. It just so happened the overall trend was down – think of it as a few years in a row when you get frost and can’t harvest, or the local wildlife becomes diseased, or whatever. Point is, there’s a seasonal, semi-sinusoidal wave to things.

So WTF does this have to do with this post?

I think most people are “tired” of things being bad. They’ve reached their saturation level, and are ready for things to turn back up. All it’ll take is a few quarters of things really starting to improve, and people will say “hey – things are getting better!”

It actually doesn’t matter if the “economic fundamentals” support it. Everything boils down to emotional states, which are THE leading factor. Despite the fact QE will destroy the future of our country, The Bernanke realizes inflating a big stock market rally will help people get excited again.

[permabear]

This completely fits in with my personal psychological theories (somewhat educated due to college degrees).

My theory is that animals (and hence humans) have a certain psychological rhythm, largely dictated from millions of years of seasonal changes, that impacts larger trends. Most recessions tend to last roughly a seasonal change. Even the Great Depression is better understood as a series of recessions/recoveries over a multi-seasonal time period. It just so happened the overall trend was down – think of it as a few years in a row when you get frost and can’t harvest, or the local wildlife becomes diseased, or whatever. Point is, there’s a seasonal, semi-sinusoidal wave to things.

So WTF does this have to do with this post?

I think most people are “tired” of things being bad. They’ve reached their saturation level, and are ready for things to turn back up. All it’ll take is a few quarters of things really starting to improve, and people will say “hey – things are getting better!”

It actually doesn’t matter if the “economic fundamentals” support it. Everything boils down to emotional states, which are THE leading factor. Despite the fact QE will destroy the future of our country, The Bernanke realizes inflating a big stock market rally will help people get excited again.

[permabear]

This completely fits in with my personal psychological theories (somewhat educated due to college degrees).

My theory is that animals (and hence humans) have a certain psychological rhythm, largely dictated from millions of years of seasonal changes, that impacts larger trends. Most recessions tend to last roughly a seasonal change. Even the Great Depression is better understood as a series of recessions/recoveries over a multi-seasonal time period. It just so happened the overall trend was down – think of it as a few years in a row when you get frost and can’t harvest, or the local wildlife becomes diseased, or whatever. Point is, there’s a seasonal, semi-sinusoidal wave to things.

So WTF does this have to do with this post?

I think most people are “tired” of things being bad. They’ve reached their saturation level, and are ready for things to turn back up. All it’ll take is a few quarters of things really starting to improve, and people will say “hey – things are getting better!”

It actually doesn’t matter if the “economic fundamentals” support it. Everything boils down to emotional states, which are THE leading factor. Despite the fact QE will destroy the future of our country, The Bernanke realizes inflating a big stock market rally will help people get excited again.

[permabear]

Personal preference doesn’t mean they should be protected, though.

I think the point is the current special case regulations/historical building thingamajabbers make it hard for owners to sell and move out. This is a unique predicament, as opposed to people in La Jolla that have similarly historic mid-century modern homes. It’s sad to me that they are turned into Tuscan McMansions, but at the same time, legislation preventing this is a bit overkill.

[permabear]

Personal preference doesn’t mean they should be protected, though.

I think the point is the current special case regulations/historical building thingamajabbers make it hard for owners to sell and move out. This is a unique predicament, as opposed to people in La Jolla that have similarly historic mid-century modern homes. It’s sad to me that they are turned into Tuscan McMansions, but at the same time, legislation preventing this is a bit overkill.

[permabear]

Personal preference doesn’t mean they should be protected, though.

I think the point is the current special case regulations/historical building thingamajabbers make it hard for owners to sell and move out. This is a unique predicament, as opposed to people in La Jolla that have similarly historic mid-century modern homes. It’s sad to me that they are turned into Tuscan McMansions, but at the same time, legislation preventing this is a bit overkill.

[permabear]

Personal preference doesn’t mean they should be protected, though.

I think the point is the current special case regulations/historical building thingamajabbers make it hard for owners to sell and move out. This is a unique predicament, as opposed to people in La Jolla that have similarly historic mid-century modern homes. It’s sad to me that they are turned into Tuscan McMansions, but at the same time, legislation preventing this is a bit overkill.

[permabear]

Personal preference doesn’t mean they should be protected, though.

I think the point is the current special case regulations/historical building thingamajabbers make it hard for owners to sell and move out. This is a unique predicament, as opposed to people in La Jolla that have similarly historic mid-century modern homes. It’s sad to me that they are turned into Tuscan McMansions, but at the same time, legislation preventing this is a bit overkill.

[permabear]

The best part about the internet is how a post about Ireland defaulting on unsustainable debt can morph into an analysis of the best taco stands. Viva los tacos!

[permabear]

The best part about the internet is how a post about Ireland defaulting on unsustainable debt can morph into an analysis of the best taco stands. Viva los tacos!

[permabear]

The best part about the internet is how a post about Ireland defaulting on unsustainable debt can morph into an analysis of the best taco stands. Viva los tacos!

[permabear]

The best part about the internet is how a post about Ireland defaulting on unsustainable debt can morph into an analysis of the best taco stands. Viva los tacos!

[permabear]

The best part about the internet is how a post about Ireland defaulting on unsustainable debt can morph into an analysis of the best taco stands. Viva los tacos!

[permabear]

I think this is largely a semantic argument, but the shadow inventory data includes 90+ day lates and properties in the process of foreclosure, not just the end-game foreclosure evictions. I’ve heard thru friends of homes in their neighborhoods that people have walked away from, sitting vacant, that banks are nonetheless not foreclosing on. Hence the reason Fannie had to recently say “hey you guys need to foreclose on these”.

Personally, I know of 2 properties in Scripps Ranch (where I live) that are currently vacant but not listed for sale. They are easy to pick out because the yards are overgrown in an otherwise spotless neighborhood. Another one was just sold as an REO after being trashed by squatters who were living there for a year+ with the water off… you can imagine the scene inside. Heard it was “not pretty”. BTW the home sold for ~$900k.

And this article just popped up: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/lps-over-43-million-loans-90-days-or-in_23.html

• Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure
• The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 492 days
• Nearly 20% of loans that have been delinquent more than two years are still not in foreclosure

[permabear]

I think this is largely a semantic argument, but the shadow inventory data includes 90+ day lates and properties in the process of foreclosure, not just the end-game foreclosure evictions. I’ve heard thru friends of homes in their neighborhoods that people have walked away from, sitting vacant, that banks are nonetheless not foreclosing on. Hence the reason Fannie had to recently say “hey you guys need to foreclose on these”.

Personally, I know of 2 properties in Scripps Ranch (where I live) that are currently vacant but not listed for sale. They are easy to pick out because the yards are overgrown in an otherwise spotless neighborhood. Another one was just sold as an REO after being trashed by squatters who were living there for a year+ with the water off… you can imagine the scene inside. Heard it was “not pretty”. BTW the home sold for ~$900k.

And this article just popped up: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/lps-over-43-million-loans-90-days-or-in_23.html

• Over 4.3 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure
• The average number of days delinquent for loans in foreclosure is a record 492 days
• Nearly 20% of loans that have been delinquent more than two years are still not in foreclosure

[Author]

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