[pemeliza]

“Frankly I think we are too close to a double dip recession for the powers that be to let a flood of anything occur if they can help it.”

Count me as one of the folks that thought that the government would step up the intervention as the economy continues to get worse. On hearing what has come out of Washington over the last couple of weeks, I’m not so sure anymore. Obama seems so far out of touch with what is going on it is scary. The congress is deadlocked and the republicans have zero incentive to do anything to help the economy as their probability of taking more seats increases as the unemployment rate increases. The FED is looking increasingly impotent.

I now think that there is a chance that TPTB are just going to set by and let this mother burn. Maybe it is for the best. Probably the only way to prevent a Japan at this point is a hard reset and return to fiscal sanity.

[pemeliza]

“Frankly I think we are too close to a double dip recession for the powers that be to let a flood of anything occur if they can help it.”

Count me as one of the folks that thought that the government would step up the intervention as the economy continues to get worse. On hearing what has come out of Washington over the last couple of weeks, I’m not so sure anymore. Obama seems so far out of touch with what is going on it is scary. The congress is deadlocked and the republicans have zero incentive to do anything to help the economy as their probability of taking more seats increases as the unemployment rate increases. The FED is looking increasingly impotent.

I now think that there is a chance that TPTB are just going to set by and let this mother burn. Maybe it is for the best. Probably the only way to prevent a Japan at this point is a hard reset and return to fiscal sanity.

[pemeliza]

“Frankly I think we are too close to a double dip recession for the powers that be to let a flood of anything occur if they can help it.”

Count me as one of the folks that thought that the government would step up the intervention as the economy continues to get worse. On hearing what has come out of Washington over the last couple of weeks, I’m not so sure anymore. Obama seems so far out of touch with what is going on it is scary. The congress is deadlocked and the republicans have zero incentive to do anything to help the economy as their probability of taking more seats increases as the unemployment rate increases. The FED is looking increasingly impotent.

I now think that there is a chance that TPTB are just going to set by and let this mother burn. Maybe it is for the best. Probably the only way to prevent a Japan at this point is a hard reset and return to fiscal sanity.

[pemeliza]

“Seems like making an all cash offer, at a fair price, with a sub 2 week closing is the only way to get one of the few quality REO properties.”

This is how we got our house except we did 17 days. If you are paying cash in North County Coastal, the courthouse auction is the hot ticket right now and frankly some of the deals being made are jaw-dropping but getting a deal like that is probably a lot of work and luck.

I think the standard 20% down buyer can do much better at short sales than REOs but you have to have the patience to see things through. If you look at the shorts that do make it to closing many of them close below market price. Some of the REOs that come on the market overpriced are also opportunities if you can catch the bank at the right time.

[pemeliza]

“Seems like making an all cash offer, at a fair price, with a sub 2 week closing is the only way to get one of the few quality REO properties.”

This is how we got our house except we did 17 days. If you are paying cash in North County Coastal, the courthouse auction is the hot ticket right now and frankly some of the deals being made are jaw-dropping but getting a deal like that is probably a lot of work and luck.

I think the standard 20% down buyer can do much better at short sales than REOs but you have to have the patience to see things through. If you look at the shorts that do make it to closing many of them close below market price. Some of the REOs that come on the market overpriced are also opportunities if you can catch the bank at the right time.

[pemeliza]

“Seems like making an all cash offer, at a fair price, with a sub 2 week closing is the only way to get one of the few quality REO properties.”

This is how we got our house except we did 17 days. If you are paying cash in North County Coastal, the courthouse auction is the hot ticket right now and frankly some of the deals being made are jaw-dropping but getting a deal like that is probably a lot of work and luck.

I think the standard 20% down buyer can do much better at short sales than REOs but you have to have the patience to see things through. If you look at the shorts that do make it to closing many of them close below market price. Some of the REOs that come on the market overpriced are also opportunities if you can catch the bank at the right time.

[pemeliza]

“Seems like making an all cash offer, at a fair price, with a sub 2 week closing is the only way to get one of the few quality REO properties.”

This is how we got our house except we did 17 days. If you are paying cash in North County Coastal, the courthouse auction is the hot ticket right now and frankly some of the deals being made are jaw-dropping but getting a deal like that is probably a lot of work and luck.

I think the standard 20% down buyer can do much better at short sales than REOs but you have to have the patience to see things through. If you look at the shorts that do make it to closing many of them close below market price. Some of the REOs that come on the market overpriced are also opportunities if you can catch the bank at the right time.

[pemeliza]

“Seems like making an all cash offer, at a fair price, with a sub 2 week closing is the only way to get one of the few quality REO properties.”

This is how we got our house except we did 17 days. If you are paying cash in North County Coastal, the courthouse auction is the hot ticket right now and frankly some of the deals being made are jaw-dropping but getting a deal like that is probably a lot of work and luck.

I think the standard 20% down buyer can do much better at short sales than REOs but you have to have the patience to see things through. If you look at the shorts that do make it to closing many of them close below market price. Some of the REOs that come on the market overpriced are also opportunities if you can catch the bank at the right time.

[pemeliza]

“With the Bolero house, if the bank were to list it as an REO, and if we could get rid of all the speculation, they would get more money for it, and the buyer would pay less. That is a far better outcome than what happened with the flipper.”

This certainly has not been my experience. Last year a listing on Obelisco Place came on the market hot at $799k. It was a REO. I bid 825k all cash and got blown out of the water. The house sold for 891k.

The house on Bolero is 1000 sq. ft. larger and has the more direct westerly view that everyone wants (Obelisco place had more of a north view) and you are suggesting it would sell for $750k as a REO? I have not personally seen Bolero, but that price just seems totally out of line with that area for a house with that kind of view (especially if it is protected as you say). You would end up with the mother of all bidding wars if it was priced at 750k and there is no way an organic buyer with 20% down would be able to compete.

I think what you are saying and what you have been saying all along is that if the banks were somehow forced to immediately list all of their foreclosures for sale than we would have more supply than demand and places like this would routinely sell for $750k or less (especially if the feds allowed interest rates to float into the 7-8% range and eliminated buyer incentives). Furthermore, there would be no cash buyers because there would be no speculators trying to exploit the supply imbalance and every cash buyer (most?) is a speculator.

First of all, the buyer incentives pretty much don’t apply to the luxury coastal home market. As far as interest rates go we are in a recession (depression) and interest rates are always low in such circumstances. Note that the yield on the 3 month T-bill was 0% BEFORE the fed cut interest rates to zero. In other words the fed simply followed the market down. As far as buying MBS yes that has helped the mortgage market. With prices in a free-fall would we have a mortgage market at all without the fed stepping in? Who wants to lend money at any interest rate on a depreciating asset in a non-recourse lending environment?

As far as forcing banks to put houses on the market, that would help supply for a time period but then what? The people in La Costa Estates that bought long ago know about the market cycles in Southern California. Why would they sell at the bottom of the cycle? BTW, 750k for the house on Bolero is a 2001 price (maybe lower). There was one at 2649 Marmol Ct. that sold for $747k in March of 2001 and it was on the corner of a busy street (El Fuerte). It was a decent house but nothing special … I looked at it back then when it was listed at $799k. At the time, the vacant lot next to the house was listed at $700k (not sure what it sold for). That house on Bolero looks to be a better location and it is a bigger house. The only downside is that the view is out of the front of the house instead of the back.

[pemeliza]

“With the Bolero house, if the bank were to list it as an REO, and if we could get rid of all the speculation, they would get more money for it, and the buyer would pay less. That is a far better outcome than what happened with the flipper.”

This certainly has not been my experience. Last year a listing on Obelisco Place came on the market hot at $799k. It was a REO. I bid 825k all cash and got blown out of the water. The house sold for 891k.

The house on Bolero is 1000 sq. ft. larger and has the more direct westerly view that everyone wants (Obelisco place had more of a north view) and you are suggesting it would sell for $750k as a REO? I have not personally seen Bolero, but that price just seems totally out of line with that area for a house with that kind of view (especially if it is protected as you say). You would end up with the mother of all bidding wars if it was priced at 750k and there is no way an organic buyer with 20% down would be able to compete.

I think what you are saying and what you have been saying all along is that if the banks were somehow forced to immediately list all of their foreclosures for sale than we would have more supply than demand and places like this would routinely sell for $750k or less (especially if the feds allowed interest rates to float into the 7-8% range and eliminated buyer incentives). Furthermore, there would be no cash buyers because there would be no speculators trying to exploit the supply imbalance and every cash buyer (most?) is a speculator.

First of all, the buyer incentives pretty much don’t apply to the luxury coastal home market. As far as interest rates go we are in a recession (depression) and interest rates are always low in such circumstances. Note that the yield on the 3 month T-bill was 0% BEFORE the fed cut interest rates to zero. In other words the fed simply followed the market down. As far as buying MBS yes that has helped the mortgage market. With prices in a free-fall would we have a mortgage market at all without the fed stepping in? Who wants to lend money at any interest rate on a depreciating asset in a non-recourse lending environment?

As far as forcing banks to put houses on the market, that would help supply for a time period but then what? The people in La Costa Estates that bought long ago know about the market cycles in Southern California. Why would they sell at the bottom of the cycle? BTW, 750k for the house on Bolero is a 2001 price (maybe lower). There was one at 2649 Marmol Ct. that sold for $747k in March of 2001 and it was on the corner of a busy street (El Fuerte). It was a decent house but nothing special … I looked at it back then when it was listed at $799k. At the time, the vacant lot next to the house was listed at $700k (not sure what it sold for). That house on Bolero looks to be a better location and it is a bigger house. The only downside is that the view is out of the front of the house instead of the back.

[pemeliza]

“With the Bolero house, if the bank were to list it as an REO, and if we could get rid of all the speculation, they would get more money for it, and the buyer would pay less. That is a far better outcome than what happened with the flipper.”

This certainly has not been my experience. Last year a listing on Obelisco Place came on the market hot at $799k. It was a REO. I bid 825k all cash and got blown out of the water. The house sold for 891k.

The house on Bolero is 1000 sq. ft. larger and has the more direct westerly view that everyone wants (Obelisco place had more of a north view) and you are suggesting it would sell for $750k as a REO? I have not personally seen Bolero, but that price just seems totally out of line with that area for a house with that kind of view (especially if it is protected as you say). You would end up with the mother of all bidding wars if it was priced at 750k and there is no way an organic buyer with 20% down would be able to compete.

I think what you are saying and what you have been saying all along is that if the banks were somehow forced to immediately list all of their foreclosures for sale than we would have more supply than demand and places like this would routinely sell for $750k or less (especially if the feds allowed interest rates to float into the 7-8% range and eliminated buyer incentives). Furthermore, there would be no cash buyers because there would be no speculators trying to exploit the supply imbalance and every cash buyer (most?) is a speculator.

First of all, the buyer incentives pretty much don’t apply to the luxury coastal home market. As far as interest rates go we are in a recession (depression) and interest rates are always low in such circumstances. Note that the yield on the 3 month T-bill was 0% BEFORE the fed cut interest rates to zero. In other words the fed simply followed the market down. As far as buying MBS yes that has helped the mortgage market. With prices in a free-fall would we have a mortgage market at all without the fed stepping in? Who wants to lend money at any interest rate on a depreciating asset in a non-recourse lending environment?

As far as forcing banks to put houses on the market, that would help supply for a time period but then what? The people in La Costa Estates that bought long ago know about the market cycles in Southern California. Why would they sell at the bottom of the cycle? BTW, 750k for the house on Bolero is a 2001 price (maybe lower). There was one at 2649 Marmol Ct. that sold for $747k in March of 2001 and it was on the corner of a busy street (El Fuerte). It was a decent house but nothing special … I looked at it back then when it was listed at $799k. At the time, the vacant lot next to the house was listed at $700k (not sure what it sold for). That house on Bolero looks to be a better location and it is a bigger house. The only downside is that the view is out of the front of the house instead of the back.

[pemeliza]

“With the Bolero house, if the bank were to list it as an REO, and if we could get rid of all the speculation, they would get more money for it, and the buyer would pay less. That is a far better outcome than what happened with the flipper.”

This certainly has not been my experience. Last year a listing on Obelisco Place came on the market hot at $799k. It was a REO. I bid 825k all cash and got blown out of the water. The house sold for 891k.

The house on Bolero is 1000 sq. ft. larger and has the more direct westerly view that everyone wants (Obelisco place had more of a north view) and you are suggesting it would sell for $750k as a REO? I have not personally seen Bolero, but that price just seems totally out of line with that area for a house with that kind of view (especially if it is protected as you say). You would end up with the mother of all bidding wars if it was priced at 750k and there is no way an organic buyer with 20% down would be able to compete.

I think what you are saying and what you have been saying all along is that if the banks were somehow forced to immediately list all of their foreclosures for sale than we would have more supply than demand and places like this would routinely sell for $750k or less (especially if the feds allowed interest rates to float into the 7-8% range and eliminated buyer incentives). Furthermore, there would be no cash buyers because there would be no speculators trying to exploit the supply imbalance and every cash buyer (most?) is a speculator.

First of all, the buyer incentives pretty much don’t apply to the luxury coastal home market. As far as interest rates go we are in a recession (depression) and interest rates are always low in such circumstances. Note that the yield on the 3 month T-bill was 0% BEFORE the fed cut interest rates to zero. In other words the fed simply followed the market down. As far as buying MBS yes that has helped the mortgage market. With prices in a free-fall would we have a mortgage market at all without the fed stepping in? Who wants to lend money at any interest rate on a depreciating asset in a non-recourse lending environment?

As far as forcing banks to put houses on the market, that would help supply for a time period but then what? The people in La Costa Estates that bought long ago know about the market cycles in Southern California. Why would they sell at the bottom of the cycle? BTW, 750k for the house on Bolero is a 2001 price (maybe lower). There was one at 2649 Marmol Ct. that sold for $747k in March of 2001 and it was on the corner of a busy street (El Fuerte). It was a decent house but nothing special … I looked at it back then when it was listed at $799k. At the time, the vacant lot next to the house was listed at $700k (not sure what it sold for). That house on Bolero looks to be a better location and it is a bigger house. The only downside is that the view is out of the front of the house instead of the back.

[pemeliza]

“With the Bolero house, if the bank were to list it as an REO, and if we could get rid of all the speculation, they would get more money for it, and the buyer would pay less. That is a far better outcome than what happened with the flipper.”

This certainly has not been my experience. Last year a listing on Obelisco Place came on the market hot at $799k. It was a REO. I bid 825k all cash and got blown out of the water. The house sold for 891k.

The house on Bolero is 1000 sq. ft. larger and has the more direct westerly view that everyone wants (Obelisco place had more of a north view) and you are suggesting it would sell for $750k as a REO? I have not personally seen Bolero, but that price just seems totally out of line with that area for a house with that kind of view (especially if it is protected as you say). You would end up with the mother of all bidding wars if it was priced at 750k and there is no way an organic buyer with 20% down would be able to compete.

I think what you are saying and what you have been saying all along is that if the banks were somehow forced to immediately list all of their foreclosures for sale than we would have more supply than demand and places like this would routinely sell for $750k or less (especially if the feds allowed interest rates to float into the 7-8% range and eliminated buyer incentives). Furthermore, there would be no cash buyers because there would be no speculators trying to exploit the supply imbalance and every cash buyer (most?) is a speculator.

First of all, the buyer incentives pretty much don’t apply to the luxury coastal home market. As far as interest rates go we are in a recession (depression) and interest rates are always low in such circumstances. Note that the yield on the 3 month T-bill was 0% BEFORE the fed cut interest rates to zero. In other words the fed simply followed the market down. As far as buying MBS yes that has helped the mortgage market. With prices in a free-fall would we have a mortgage market at all without the fed stepping in? Who wants to lend money at any interest rate on a depreciating asset in a non-recourse lending environment?

As far as forcing banks to put houses on the market, that would help supply for a time period but then what? The people in La Costa Estates that bought long ago know about the market cycles in Southern California. Why would they sell at the bottom of the cycle? BTW, 750k for the house on Bolero is a 2001 price (maybe lower). There was one at 2649 Marmol Ct. that sold for $747k in March of 2001 and it was on the corner of a busy street (El Fuerte). It was a decent house but nothing special … I looked at it back then when it was listed at $799k. At the time, the vacant lot next to the house was listed at $700k (not sure what it sold for). That house on Bolero looks to be a better location and it is a bigger house. The only downside is that the view is out of the front of the house instead of the back.

[pemeliza]

“For example, note the house on Bolero in 92009 that recently went pending (the modern, white one with 1/2 acre and view). The flipper bought it for ~$645K, IIRC, and without doing any renovations (I prefer they NOT do renovations, for the same reasons stated by other posters in this thread), put it on the market in the high $900K range and it’s pending. Now, if the bank took it back instead, they could have listed it for $750K. The bank/taxpayers would have saved $100K, and the buyer could have saved $200K-$250K.”

If it is pending now for the high $900k range then how on earth would a buyer have bought it for $750k as a REO?

REO’s sell for more then flipper properties because everyone wants to “steal” one from the bank. BTW, the house on Bolero has a vacant lot sitting to the west of it. Still, if someone bought it at $645k than that was a great price.

[pemeliza]

“For example, note the house on Bolero in 92009 that recently went pending (the modern, white one with 1/2 acre and view). The flipper bought it for ~$645K, IIRC, and without doing any renovations (I prefer they NOT do renovations, for the same reasons stated by other posters in this thread), put it on the market in the high $900K range and it’s pending. Now, if the bank took it back instead, they could have listed it for $750K. The bank/taxpayers would have saved $100K, and the buyer could have saved $200K-$250K.”

If it is pending now for the high $900k range then how on earth would a buyer have bought it for $750k as a REO?

REO’s sell for more then flipper properties because everyone wants to “steal” one from the bank. BTW, the house on Bolero has a vacant lot sitting to the west of it. Still, if someone bought it at $645k than that was a great price.

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