[pemeliza]

The “artificial” forces (especially those brought on in 2003) magnified the “normal” market forces. This is why the FED is culpable. Perhaps they are correct that the housing bubble could not have been completely prevented but they did not have to throw gas on the flames.

The extreme government involvement in housing looks like a grand experiment that went horribly wrong. It is clear at this point that we all would have been better off if this “experiment” never took place. However, at this point it is not clear to me how the ties can be severed without destroying the entire economy.

It is ironic that the one thing the government could have done to prevent this bubble from spiraling out of control (regulating the mortgage market) was the one thing they decided to keep their hands out of.

[pemeliza]

The “artificial” forces (especially those brought on in 2003) magnified the “normal” market forces. This is why the FED is culpable. Perhaps they are correct that the housing bubble could not have been completely prevented but they did not have to throw gas on the flames.

The extreme government involvement in housing looks like a grand experiment that went horribly wrong. It is clear at this point that we all would have been better off if this “experiment” never took place. However, at this point it is not clear to me how the ties can be severed without destroying the entire economy.

It is ironic that the one thing the government could have done to prevent this bubble from spiraling out of control (regulating the mortgage market) was the one thing they decided to keep their hands out of.

[pemeliza]

The “artificial” forces (especially those brought on in 2003) magnified the “normal” market forces. This is why the FED is culpable. Perhaps they are correct that the housing bubble could not have been completely prevented but they did not have to throw gas on the flames.

The extreme government involvement in housing looks like a grand experiment that went horribly wrong. It is clear at this point that we all would have been better off if this “experiment” never took place. However, at this point it is not clear to me how the ties can be severed without destroying the entire economy.

It is ironic that the one thing the government could have done to prevent this bubble from spiraling out of control (regulating the mortgage market) was the one thing they decided to keep their hands out of.

[pemeliza]

“I’d say your characterization of the market through the 90’s until now is pretty spot on, CA renter, especially with regard to when it should have peaked.”

Many of us who had houses in the area thought the market had peaked in 2001. Much of the demand in my area (92024) during the 1999-2000 time frame was fueled by the stock bubble (a lot of Q money). By 2001 the nasdaq crashed and then 9/11 hit. I remember distinctly a house near my ‘hood that was listed close to 2 million. They had two offers on it (probably somewhat lower than 2M) but the buyers got spooked after 9/11 and walked. They ended up selling the house for 1.45M in spring 2003.

“Just ran MLS numbers and the propertyshark numbers look lousy!”

Thanks for posting the corrected numbers. Maybe property shark doesn’t include new houses? Never mind pshark shows a higher volume in 2009 of 575 versus the 481 on the MLS so it must be something else.

[pemeliza]

“I’d say your characterization of the market through the 90’s until now is pretty spot on, CA renter, especially with regard to when it should have peaked.”

Many of us who had houses in the area thought the market had peaked in 2001. Much of the demand in my area (92024) during the 1999-2000 time frame was fueled by the stock bubble (a lot of Q money). By 2001 the nasdaq crashed and then 9/11 hit. I remember distinctly a house near my ‘hood that was listed close to 2 million. They had two offers on it (probably somewhat lower than 2M) but the buyers got spooked after 9/11 and walked. They ended up selling the house for 1.45M in spring 2003.

“Just ran MLS numbers and the propertyshark numbers look lousy!”

Thanks for posting the corrected numbers. Maybe property shark doesn’t include new houses? Never mind pshark shows a higher volume in 2009 of 575 versus the 481 on the MLS so it must be something else.

[pemeliza]

“I’d say your characterization of the market through the 90’s until now is pretty spot on, CA renter, especially with regard to when it should have peaked.”

Many of us who had houses in the area thought the market had peaked in 2001. Much of the demand in my area (92024) during the 1999-2000 time frame was fueled by the stock bubble (a lot of Q money). By 2001 the nasdaq crashed and then 9/11 hit. I remember distinctly a house near my ‘hood that was listed close to 2 million. They had two offers on it (probably somewhat lower than 2M) but the buyers got spooked after 9/11 and walked. They ended up selling the house for 1.45M in spring 2003.

“Just ran MLS numbers and the propertyshark numbers look lousy!”

Thanks for posting the corrected numbers. Maybe property shark doesn’t include new houses? Never mind pshark shows a higher volume in 2009 of 575 versus the 481 on the MLS so it must be something else.

[pemeliza]

“I’d say your characterization of the market through the 90’s until now is pretty spot on, CA renter, especially with regard to when it should have peaked.”

Many of us who had houses in the area thought the market had peaked in 2001. Much of the demand in my area (92024) during the 1999-2000 time frame was fueled by the stock bubble (a lot of Q money). By 2001 the nasdaq crashed and then 9/11 hit. I remember distinctly a house near my ‘hood that was listed close to 2 million. They had two offers on it (probably somewhat lower than 2M) but the buyers got spooked after 9/11 and walked. They ended up selling the house for 1.45M in spring 2003.

“Just ran MLS numbers and the propertyshark numbers look lousy!”

Thanks for posting the corrected numbers. Maybe property shark doesn’t include new houses? Never mind pshark shows a higher volume in 2009 of 575 versus the 481 on the MLS so it must be something else.

[pemeliza]

“I’d say your characterization of the market through the 90’s until now is pretty spot on, CA renter, especially with regard to when it should have peaked.”

Many of us who had houses in the area thought the market had peaked in 2001. Much of the demand in my area (92024) during the 1999-2000 time frame was fueled by the stock bubble (a lot of Q money). By 2001 the nasdaq crashed and then 9/11 hit. I remember distinctly a house near my ‘hood that was listed close to 2 million. They had two offers on it (probably somewhat lower than 2M) but the buyers got spooked after 9/11 and walked. They ended up selling the house for 1.45M in spring 2003.

“Just ran MLS numbers and the propertyshark numbers look lousy!”

Thanks for posting the corrected numbers. Maybe property shark doesn’t include new houses? Never mind pshark shows a higher volume in 2009 of 575 versus the 481 on the MLS so it must be something else.

[pemeliza]

“Some say yes, and some say no. ”

I guess if you consider the quality of life in 92024 in the 90’s it probably wasn’t really under-priced. But given its choice location it was certainly ripe for major appreciation as it got flooded with new money. The people that saw this and had the $$$ back in the 90s made out good even if they didn’t sell at the peak. They locked in a low tax base and now have a phenomenal quality of life.

[pemeliza]

“Some say yes, and some say no. ”

I guess if you consider the quality of life in 92024 in the 90’s it probably wasn’t really under-priced. But given its choice location it was certainly ripe for major appreciation as it got flooded with new money. The people that saw this and had the $$$ back in the 90s made out good even if they didn’t sell at the peak. They locked in a low tax base and now have a phenomenal quality of life.

[pemeliza]

“Some say yes, and some say no. ”

I guess if you consider the quality of life in 92024 in the 90’s it probably wasn’t really under-priced. But given its choice location it was certainly ripe for major appreciation as it got flooded with new money. The people that saw this and had the $$$ back in the 90s made out good even if they didn’t sell at the peak. They locked in a low tax base and now have a phenomenal quality of life.

[pemeliza]

“Some say yes, and some say no. ”

I guess if you consider the quality of life in 92024 in the 90’s it probably wasn’t really under-priced. But given its choice location it was certainly ripe for major appreciation as it got flooded with new money. The people that saw this and had the $$$ back in the 90s made out good even if they didn’t sell at the peak. They locked in a low tax base and now have a phenomenal quality of life.

[pemeliza]

“Some say yes, and some say no. ”

I guess if you consider the quality of life in 92024 in the 90’s it probably wasn’t really under-priced. But given its choice location it was certainly ripe for major appreciation as it got flooded with new money. The people that saw this and had the $$$ back in the 90s made out good even if they didn’t sell at the peak. They locked in a low tax base and now have a phenomenal quality of life.

[pemeliza]

I am not a realtor and so do not have access to the mls. However, the website propertyshark.com seems to be pretty darn good.

Here are the number of sales in 92024 (Encinitas) broken down per year: (The price, SF, PPSF columns are all medians).

Year Sales Price SF PPSF
2010 19 $575,000 1,567 $334
2009 575 $595,000 1,779 $330
2008 444 $680,000 1,830 $360
2007 508 $735,000 1,830 $388
2006 496 $748,000 1,830 $400
2005 561 $750,000 1,778 $421
2004 545 $680,000 1,834 $371
2003 624 $560,000 1,938 $295
2002 539 $500,000 2,008 $244
2001 425 $407,000 1,815 $230
2000 464 $396,000 1,938 $198
1999 568 $305,000 1,779 $176
1998 469 $270,000 1,792 $153
1997 371 $246,000 1,836 $136
1996 308 $234,000 1,877 $127
1995 217 $225,000 1,831 $122
1994 265 $225,000 1,867 $127
1993 246 $224,000 1,854 $121
1992 176 $250,000 1,888 $132
1991 142 $241,000 1,686 $135
1990 158 $270,000 1,832 $144
1989 180 $255,000 1,861 $134
1988 244 $212,000 1,901 $112

I believe that this data points out two things:

1.) Sales volume during 2009 actually isn’t that much different than during the peak years.

2.) 92024 was ridiculously under-priced in the 90’s.

propertyshark.com is a free site (you have to register). An analysis could be performed on any zipcode.

One other note, one reason why the sales volume in 92024 may not have changed from the peak as much as some of the other zips is that the 92024 didn’t have as much land to build on as say 92009 … thus not as many new mega developments like La Costa Valley.

[pemeliza]

I am not a realtor and so do not have access to the mls. However, the website propertyshark.com seems to be pretty darn good.

Here are the number of sales in 92024 (Encinitas) broken down per year: (The price, SF, PPSF columns are all medians).

Year Sales Price SF PPSF
2010 19 $575,000 1,567 $334
2009 575 $595,000 1,779 $330
2008 444 $680,000 1,830 $360
2007 508 $735,000 1,830 $388
2006 496 $748,000 1,830 $400
2005 561 $750,000 1,778 $421
2004 545 $680,000 1,834 $371
2003 624 $560,000 1,938 $295
2002 539 $500,000 2,008 $244
2001 425 $407,000 1,815 $230
2000 464 $396,000 1,938 $198
1999 568 $305,000 1,779 $176
1998 469 $270,000 1,792 $153
1997 371 $246,000 1,836 $136
1996 308 $234,000 1,877 $127
1995 217 $225,000 1,831 $122
1994 265 $225,000 1,867 $127
1993 246 $224,000 1,854 $121
1992 176 $250,000 1,888 $132
1991 142 $241,000 1,686 $135
1990 158 $270,000 1,832 $144
1989 180 $255,000 1,861 $134
1988 244 $212,000 1,901 $112

I believe that this data points out two things:

1.) Sales volume during 2009 actually isn’t that much different than during the peak years.

2.) 92024 was ridiculously under-priced in the 90’s.

propertyshark.com is a free site (you have to register). An analysis could be performed on any zipcode.

One other note, one reason why the sales volume in 92024 may not have changed from the peak as much as some of the other zips is that the 92024 didn’t have as much land to build on as say 92009 … thus not as many new mega developments like La Costa Valley.

[Author]

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