Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
pemeliza
Participant“IMHO, the housing bubble was planned from the very beginning.”
Yes, and this explains a lot. The FED and regulators have been widely criticized because they apparently MISSED the housing bubble. No, they didn’t miss it they created it. What they got wrong IMHO is they thought they could create a bubble and then control it with “measured” monetary policy. In the worst case, they figured, they just had to use “extreme” monetary policy to clean up the aftermath if things went bad. The result was perhaps the most costly failed experiment in monetary policy this country has ever witnessed.
Participant“IMHO, the housing bubble was planned from the very beginning.”
Yes, and this explains a lot. The FED and regulators have been widely criticized because they apparently MISSED the housing bubble. No, they didn’t miss it they created it. What they got wrong IMHO is they thought they could create a bubble and then control it with “measured” monetary policy. In the worst case, they figured, they just had to use “extreme” monetary policy to clean up the aftermath if things went bad. The result was perhaps the most costly failed experiment in monetary policy this country has ever witnessed.
Participant“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”
That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.
Participant“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”
That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.
Participant“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”
That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.
Participant“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”
That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.
Participant“It’s very likely that low rates caused loose lending”
That is my view as well. The FED was far too slow in removing the punch bowl.
ParticipantI may be dead wrong on this but I think what is keeping buyer’s on the sidelines isn’t prices being too high but rather the reality that prices are still dropping in many price ranges and desirable areas. I believe that there are many buyer’s that can afford today’s prices but are afraid of the house selling next door for 100k less 6 months after their purchase. Given that:
1.) prices are essentially down to 2002 or lower levels in all but a small handful of pockets across the county.
2.) Interest rates are ultra low.
3.) The number of government tax rebates (both state and federal).
4.) The stock market has recovered most of its losses since the crash.
I would have thought that we would have a very strong spring selling season. However, just in looking at the market activity in my area over the last 3-4 months it feels like we have another leg down as buyer’s seem extremely hesitant. Only the absolute best deals are closing and many houses that make it to escrow are ending up back on the market and then just languishing. I also think the combination of shadow inventory and the perception that the market has lost all fairness and credibility (people living in their houses for free indefinitely, insider short sales) may be signaling buyers just to say screw it and rent regardless of home prices.
ParticipantI may be dead wrong on this but I think what is keeping buyer’s on the sidelines isn’t prices being too high but rather the reality that prices are still dropping in many price ranges and desirable areas. I believe that there are many buyer’s that can afford today’s prices but are afraid of the house selling next door for 100k less 6 months after their purchase. Given that:
1.) prices are essentially down to 2002 or lower levels in all but a small handful of pockets across the county.
2.) Interest rates are ultra low.
3.) The number of government tax rebates (both state and federal).
4.) The stock market has recovered most of its losses since the crash.
I would have thought that we would have a very strong spring selling season. However, just in looking at the market activity in my area over the last 3-4 months it feels like we have another leg down as buyer’s seem extremely hesitant. Only the absolute best deals are closing and many houses that make it to escrow are ending up back on the market and then just languishing. I also think the combination of shadow inventory and the perception that the market has lost all fairness and credibility (people living in their houses for free indefinitely, insider short sales) may be signaling buyers just to say screw it and rent regardless of home prices.
ParticipantI may be dead wrong on this but I think what is keeping buyer’s on the sidelines isn’t prices being too high but rather the reality that prices are still dropping in many price ranges and desirable areas. I believe that there are many buyer’s that can afford today’s prices but are afraid of the house selling next door for 100k less 6 months after their purchase. Given that:
1.) prices are essentially down to 2002 or lower levels in all but a small handful of pockets across the county.
2.) Interest rates are ultra low.
3.) The number of government tax rebates (both state and federal).
4.) The stock market has recovered most of its losses since the crash.
I would have thought that we would have a very strong spring selling season. However, just in looking at the market activity in my area over the last 3-4 months it feels like we have another leg down as buyer’s seem extremely hesitant. Only the absolute best deals are closing and many houses that make it to escrow are ending up back on the market and then just languishing. I also think the combination of shadow inventory and the perception that the market has lost all fairness and credibility (people living in their houses for free indefinitely, insider short sales) may be signaling buyers just to say screw it and rent regardless of home prices.
ParticipantI may be dead wrong on this but I think what is keeping buyer’s on the sidelines isn’t prices being too high but rather the reality that prices are still dropping in many price ranges and desirable areas. I believe that there are many buyer’s that can afford today’s prices but are afraid of the house selling next door for 100k less 6 months after their purchase. Given that:
1.) prices are essentially down to 2002 or lower levels in all but a small handful of pockets across the county.
2.) Interest rates are ultra low.
3.) The number of government tax rebates (both state and federal).
4.) The stock market has recovered most of its losses since the crash.
I would have thought that we would have a very strong spring selling season. However, just in looking at the market activity in my area over the last 3-4 months it feels like we have another leg down as buyer’s seem extremely hesitant. Only the absolute best deals are closing and many houses that make it to escrow are ending up back on the market and then just languishing. I also think the combination of shadow inventory and the perception that the market has lost all fairness and credibility (people living in their houses for free indefinitely, insider short sales) may be signaling buyers just to say screw it and rent regardless of home prices.
ParticipantI may be dead wrong on this but I think what is keeping buyer’s on the sidelines isn’t prices being too high but rather the reality that prices are still dropping in many price ranges and desirable areas. I believe that there are many buyer’s that can afford today’s prices but are afraid of the house selling next door for 100k less 6 months after their purchase. Given that:
1.) prices are essentially down to 2002 or lower levels in all but a small handful of pockets across the county.
2.) Interest rates are ultra low.
3.) The number of government tax rebates (both state and federal).
4.) The stock market has recovered most of its losses since the crash.
I would have thought that we would have a very strong spring selling season. However, just in looking at the market activity in my area over the last 3-4 months it feels like we have another leg down as buyer’s seem extremely hesitant. Only the absolute best deals are closing and many houses that make it to escrow are ending up back on the market and then just languishing. I also think the combination of shadow inventory and the perception that the market has lost all fairness and credibility (people living in their houses for free indefinitely, insider short sales) may be signaling buyers just to say screw it and rent regardless of home prices.
April 2, 2010 at 7:02 AM in reply to: Should the houses be worth twice what they were in 1996? #535021Participant“What areas are you seeing 2001 prices ?”
One area that is getting decimated that was holding up relatively well until now is the better streets in Mt. Helix. Here is one that is sitting on the market for under the 2001 price:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100006632-4512_Bird_Of_Paradise_Ln_La_Mesa_CA_91941
This looks like a great deal but there good be something fundamentally wrong about the house I have not seen it. But that house is not alone and in general the area is probably close to 2001 price levels even for the best streets.
I’m also seeing examples in some of the best SD city area zip codes (Pt. Loma, Mission Hills, etc.) that are getting close to those price levels especially stuff in the higher end (> 900k). But there are other examples. Here is a row home that just closed for a few thousand over the 2002 price in 92103
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-C194A990-3133_3rd_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92103
So far this spring I have seen no indication that the downward price trend has halted in these areas so 2001 nominal pricing definitely seems like a possibility.
April 2, 2010 at 7:02 AM in reply to: Should the houses be worth twice what they were in 1996? #535118Participant“What areas are you seeing 2001 prices ?”
One area that is getting decimated that was holding up relatively well until now is the better streets in Mt. Helix. Here is one that is sitting on the market for under the 2001 price:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100006632-4512_Bird_Of_Paradise_Ln_La_Mesa_CA_91941
This looks like a great deal but there good be something fundamentally wrong about the house I have not seen it. But that house is not alone and in general the area is probably close to 2001 price levels even for the best streets.
I’m also seeing examples in some of the best SD city area zip codes (Pt. Loma, Mission Hills, etc.) that are getting close to those price levels especially stuff in the higher end (> 900k). But there are other examples. Here is a row home that just closed for a few thousand over the 2002 price in 92103
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-C194A990-3133_3rd_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92103
So far this spring I have seen no indication that the downward price trend has halted in these areas so 2001 nominal pricing definitely seems like a possibility.
-
AuthorPosts
