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pemeliza
Participant” I’m referring to homes that are short sales, REOs, and regular sales that are close to tempting, but not low enough for buyers who intend to make their own improvements and live in the home for the duration.”
This is illuminating. CAR, it is likely that you would not have bought the house that I bought at the price I paid even though our intents are exactly the same. Me and DW basically bought the cheapest house on a great street that was original condition. We plan to do just as you suggest which is to make improvements (slowly over time!) and live in the home for the duration. I plan to be carried out in a pine box.
It occurred to me that you and I have a wildly different view of what a fair price is for a top notch location in San Diego. This got me to thinking that most buyers probably have a wildly different view of fair pricing in SD. I think all buyers myself included have a certain strike price. Right now your strike price is clearly much lower than the buyers that are currently buying right now but I don’t think those that are buying at today’s prices are necessarily less savvy. Maybe they just are not that good at timing the market so they just buy once they see something they like and can afford.
The best analogy I can come up with is the stock market. When it was in free-fall mode last year there are probably buyers that jumped in at DOW 10000 thinking wow what a deal. Then were buyers at 9000, 8000, 7000, etc. Each buyer had a price that they wanted in at. During the free-fall I got a call from a friend that thought the market was going to 3000. He never got in. Right now I would say the real estate market in SD is probably about like DOW 8000. I probably got in a little early and will probably have a 10-20% paper loss before this is all over. However, since we bought I have not seen a house come on the market that I would rather have than ours. Thus, I feel like our 2 year trek was successful even though we clearly did not time the bottom.
You and JP stuck it out and are poised to do even better then we did. Hang in there.
Participant” I’m referring to homes that are short sales, REOs, and regular sales that are close to tempting, but not low enough for buyers who intend to make their own improvements and live in the home for the duration.”
This is illuminating. CAR, it is likely that you would not have bought the house that I bought at the price I paid even though our intents are exactly the same. Me and DW basically bought the cheapest house on a great street that was original condition. We plan to do just as you suggest which is to make improvements (slowly over time!) and live in the home for the duration. I plan to be carried out in a pine box.
It occurred to me that you and I have a wildly different view of what a fair price is for a top notch location in San Diego. This got me to thinking that most buyers probably have a wildly different view of fair pricing in SD. I think all buyers myself included have a certain strike price. Right now your strike price is clearly much lower than the buyers that are currently buying right now but I don’t think those that are buying at today’s prices are necessarily less savvy. Maybe they just are not that good at timing the market so they just buy once they see something they like and can afford.
The best analogy I can come up with is the stock market. When it was in free-fall mode last year there are probably buyers that jumped in at DOW 10000 thinking wow what a deal. Then were buyers at 9000, 8000, 7000, etc. Each buyer had a price that they wanted in at. During the free-fall I got a call from a friend that thought the market was going to 3000. He never got in. Right now I would say the real estate market in SD is probably about like DOW 8000. I probably got in a little early and will probably have a 10-20% paper loss before this is all over. However, since we bought I have not seen a house come on the market that I would rather have than ours. Thus, I feel like our 2 year trek was successful even though we clearly did not time the bottom.
You and JP stuck it out and are poised to do even better then we did. Hang in there.
ParticipantCAR, as a fellow buyer I think you and JP may be getting a little carried away with the flipper theory.
I spent two years looking at houses basically starting late 2007 and then finally buying in late 2009. I put in at least a dozen offers on houses all over San Diego county including a few in your neck of the woods in Carlsbad. In all cases where I did not get the house, I was never outbid by a flipper. In all cases I was outbid by an owner occupant. The houses were never put back on the market. When I bid I just put in the price I wanted to pay and that was that. If I lost out I moved on. It never even occurred to me during the process that somehow the market was being manipulated by flippers, banks, and scammers. I was much more focused on getting a great location on a great street at a what I thought to be a fair price.
To be fair I was primarily looking in the 700k+ range so it is possible that at the lower end of the spectrum things are different and what you and JP are suggesting is more common.
Anyway, it seems you and JP have been looking very hard these last few years just like I did and I truly believe that your patience will be rewarded.
ParticipantCAR, as a fellow buyer I think you and JP may be getting a little carried away with the flipper theory.
I spent two years looking at houses basically starting late 2007 and then finally buying in late 2009. I put in at least a dozen offers on houses all over San Diego county including a few in your neck of the woods in Carlsbad. In all cases where I did not get the house, I was never outbid by a flipper. In all cases I was outbid by an owner occupant. The houses were never put back on the market. When I bid I just put in the price I wanted to pay and that was that. If I lost out I moved on. It never even occurred to me during the process that somehow the market was being manipulated by flippers, banks, and scammers. I was much more focused on getting a great location on a great street at a what I thought to be a fair price.
To be fair I was primarily looking in the 700k+ range so it is possible that at the lower end of the spectrum things are different and what you and JP are suggesting is more common.
Anyway, it seems you and JP have been looking very hard these last few years just like I did and I truly believe that your patience will be rewarded.
ParticipantCAR, as a fellow buyer I think you and JP may be getting a little carried away with the flipper theory.
I spent two years looking at houses basically starting late 2007 and then finally buying in late 2009. I put in at least a dozen offers on houses all over San Diego county including a few in your neck of the woods in Carlsbad. In all cases where I did not get the house, I was never outbid by a flipper. In all cases I was outbid by an owner occupant. The houses were never put back on the market. When I bid I just put in the price I wanted to pay and that was that. If I lost out I moved on. It never even occurred to me during the process that somehow the market was being manipulated by flippers, banks, and scammers. I was much more focused on getting a great location on a great street at a what I thought to be a fair price.
To be fair I was primarily looking in the 700k+ range so it is possible that at the lower end of the spectrum things are different and what you and JP are suggesting is more common.
Anyway, it seems you and JP have been looking very hard these last few years just like I did and I truly believe that your patience will be rewarded.
ParticipantCAR, as a fellow buyer I think you and JP may be getting a little carried away with the flipper theory.
I spent two years looking at houses basically starting late 2007 and then finally buying in late 2009. I put in at least a dozen offers on houses all over San Diego county including a few in your neck of the woods in Carlsbad. In all cases where I did not get the house, I was never outbid by a flipper. In all cases I was outbid by an owner occupant. The houses were never put back on the market. When I bid I just put in the price I wanted to pay and that was that. If I lost out I moved on. It never even occurred to me during the process that somehow the market was being manipulated by flippers, banks, and scammers. I was much more focused on getting a great location on a great street at a what I thought to be a fair price.
To be fair I was primarily looking in the 700k+ range so it is possible that at the lower end of the spectrum things are different and what you and JP are suggesting is more common.
Anyway, it seems you and JP have been looking very hard these last few years just like I did and I truly believe that your patience will be rewarded.
ParticipantCAR, as a fellow buyer I think you and JP may be getting a little carried away with the flipper theory.
I spent two years looking at houses basically starting late 2007 and then finally buying in late 2009. I put in at least a dozen offers on houses all over San Diego county including a few in your neck of the woods in Carlsbad. In all cases where I did not get the house, I was never outbid by a flipper. In all cases I was outbid by an owner occupant. The houses were never put back on the market. When I bid I just put in the price I wanted to pay and that was that. If I lost out I moved on. It never even occurred to me during the process that somehow the market was being manipulated by flippers, banks, and scammers. I was much more focused on getting a great location on a great street at a what I thought to be a fair price.
To be fair I was primarily looking in the 700k+ range so it is possible that at the lower end of the spectrum things are different and what you and JP are suggesting is more common.
Anyway, it seems you and JP have been looking very hard these last few years just like I did and I truly believe that your patience will be rewarded.
Participant“The last on Felton was a courthouse steps property, I believe. If he/she/they actually sell for over 200k profit, I don’t consider that a slim profit margin and it is manipulating the appraisal comps for future properties.”
I think I see your frustration now JP. For whatever reason buyers so desperately want a “turnkey” property that they will pay way over what you think is reasonable because you know as well as anyone else who has ever done any remodel work knows what the 2k granite countertops and 2k GE stainless appliance packages are actually worth. Thus you are pricing in say a 20k-30k premium above wholesale price given the cost of the “upgrades” and are stunned to see the houses sell for 150-200k over that instead. I think what you might be overlooking is that apparently there is a huge market in these older areas for “turnkey” products and thus they tend to a sell at a premium above and beyond the wholesale value of the upgrades. In other words, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. People are basically paying for convenience.
I think the solution is to simply ignore flipper properties and focus on finding a motivated seller with a great location and great bones. If my theory is correct you will not need to compete with buyers looking for “turnkey” properties and thus you should be able to score the kind of deal you are looking for. As a qualified buyer you are in charge of how much you offer and pay. If they seller wants to sell and you are they only game in town they have to come to you. Of course, you will have to pay more than the flipper that is buying on the steps because you are not paying cash. However, I think that there is a reasonable “middle ground” and you can probably find plenty of deals that while not the steals the flippers are getting will suit you well and further I think if you look hard enough you can score a deal 30-50% under peak pricing if you keep at it and don’t get frustrated seeing what the “cash” buyers are paying.
In a way, the flippers are actually helping you and CAR because they are essentially eliminating a lot of your buyer competition by feeding the need of the “turnkey” buyer. If there were no flippers to fill this need, then everyone would have to buy a fixer and you would be competing with a lot more buyers to get that jewel in the bluff.
Participant“The last on Felton was a courthouse steps property, I believe. If he/she/they actually sell for over 200k profit, I don’t consider that a slim profit margin and it is manipulating the appraisal comps for future properties.”
I think I see your frustration now JP. For whatever reason buyers so desperately want a “turnkey” property that they will pay way over what you think is reasonable because you know as well as anyone else who has ever done any remodel work knows what the 2k granite countertops and 2k GE stainless appliance packages are actually worth. Thus you are pricing in say a 20k-30k premium above wholesale price given the cost of the “upgrades” and are stunned to see the houses sell for 150-200k over that instead. I think what you might be overlooking is that apparently there is a huge market in these older areas for “turnkey” products and thus they tend to a sell at a premium above and beyond the wholesale value of the upgrades. In other words, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. People are basically paying for convenience.
I think the solution is to simply ignore flipper properties and focus on finding a motivated seller with a great location and great bones. If my theory is correct you will not need to compete with buyers looking for “turnkey” properties and thus you should be able to score the kind of deal you are looking for. As a qualified buyer you are in charge of how much you offer and pay. If they seller wants to sell and you are they only game in town they have to come to you. Of course, you will have to pay more than the flipper that is buying on the steps because you are not paying cash. However, I think that there is a reasonable “middle ground” and you can probably find plenty of deals that while not the steals the flippers are getting will suit you well and further I think if you look hard enough you can score a deal 30-50% under peak pricing if you keep at it and don’t get frustrated seeing what the “cash” buyers are paying.
In a way, the flippers are actually helping you and CAR because they are essentially eliminating a lot of your buyer competition by feeding the need of the “turnkey” buyer. If there were no flippers to fill this need, then everyone would have to buy a fixer and you would be competing with a lot more buyers to get that jewel in the bluff.
Participant“The last on Felton was a courthouse steps property, I believe. If he/she/they actually sell for over 200k profit, I don’t consider that a slim profit margin and it is manipulating the appraisal comps for future properties.”
I think I see your frustration now JP. For whatever reason buyers so desperately want a “turnkey” property that they will pay way over what you think is reasonable because you know as well as anyone else who has ever done any remodel work knows what the 2k granite countertops and 2k GE stainless appliance packages are actually worth. Thus you are pricing in say a 20k-30k premium above wholesale price given the cost of the “upgrades” and are stunned to see the houses sell for 150-200k over that instead. I think what you might be overlooking is that apparently there is a huge market in these older areas for “turnkey” products and thus they tend to a sell at a premium above and beyond the wholesale value of the upgrades. In other words, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. People are basically paying for convenience.
I think the solution is to simply ignore flipper properties and focus on finding a motivated seller with a great location and great bones. If my theory is correct you will not need to compete with buyers looking for “turnkey” properties and thus you should be able to score the kind of deal you are looking for. As a qualified buyer you are in charge of how much you offer and pay. If they seller wants to sell and you are they only game in town they have to come to you. Of course, you will have to pay more than the flipper that is buying on the steps because you are not paying cash. However, I think that there is a reasonable “middle ground” and you can probably find plenty of deals that while not the steals the flippers are getting will suit you well and further I think if you look hard enough you can score a deal 30-50% under peak pricing if you keep at it and don’t get frustrated seeing what the “cash” buyers are paying.
In a way, the flippers are actually helping you and CAR because they are essentially eliminating a lot of your buyer competition by feeding the need of the “turnkey” buyer. If there were no flippers to fill this need, then everyone would have to buy a fixer and you would be competing with a lot more buyers to get that jewel in the bluff.
Participant“The last on Felton was a courthouse steps property, I believe. If he/she/they actually sell for over 200k profit, I don’t consider that a slim profit margin and it is manipulating the appraisal comps for future properties.”
I think I see your frustration now JP. For whatever reason buyers so desperately want a “turnkey” property that they will pay way over what you think is reasonable because you know as well as anyone else who has ever done any remodel work knows what the 2k granite countertops and 2k GE stainless appliance packages are actually worth. Thus you are pricing in say a 20k-30k premium above wholesale price given the cost of the “upgrades” and are stunned to see the houses sell for 150-200k over that instead. I think what you might be overlooking is that apparently there is a huge market in these older areas for “turnkey” products and thus they tend to a sell at a premium above and beyond the wholesale value of the upgrades. In other words, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. People are basically paying for convenience.
I think the solution is to simply ignore flipper properties and focus on finding a motivated seller with a great location and great bones. If my theory is correct you will not need to compete with buyers looking for “turnkey” properties and thus you should be able to score the kind of deal you are looking for. As a qualified buyer you are in charge of how much you offer and pay. If they seller wants to sell and you are they only game in town they have to come to you. Of course, you will have to pay more than the flipper that is buying on the steps because you are not paying cash. However, I think that there is a reasonable “middle ground” and you can probably find plenty of deals that while not the steals the flippers are getting will suit you well and further I think if you look hard enough you can score a deal 30-50% under peak pricing if you keep at it and don’t get frustrated seeing what the “cash” buyers are paying.
In a way, the flippers are actually helping you and CAR because they are essentially eliminating a lot of your buyer competition by feeding the need of the “turnkey” buyer. If there were no flippers to fill this need, then everyone would have to buy a fixer and you would be competing with a lot more buyers to get that jewel in the bluff.
Participant“The last on Felton was a courthouse steps property, I believe. If he/she/they actually sell for over 200k profit, I don’t consider that a slim profit margin and it is manipulating the appraisal comps for future properties.”
I think I see your frustration now JP. For whatever reason buyers so desperately want a “turnkey” property that they will pay way over what you think is reasonable because you know as well as anyone else who has ever done any remodel work knows what the 2k granite countertops and 2k GE stainless appliance packages are actually worth. Thus you are pricing in say a 20k-30k premium above wholesale price given the cost of the “upgrades” and are stunned to see the houses sell for 150-200k over that instead. I think what you might be overlooking is that apparently there is a huge market in these older areas for “turnkey” products and thus they tend to a sell at a premium above and beyond the wholesale value of the upgrades. In other words, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. People are basically paying for convenience.
I think the solution is to simply ignore flipper properties and focus on finding a motivated seller with a great location and great bones. If my theory is correct you will not need to compete with buyers looking for “turnkey” properties and thus you should be able to score the kind of deal you are looking for. As a qualified buyer you are in charge of how much you offer and pay. If they seller wants to sell and you are they only game in town they have to come to you. Of course, you will have to pay more than the flipper that is buying on the steps because you are not paying cash. However, I think that there is a reasonable “middle ground” and you can probably find plenty of deals that while not the steals the flippers are getting will suit you well and further I think if you look hard enough you can score a deal 30-50% under peak pricing if you keep at it and don’t get frustrated seeing what the “cash” buyers are paying.
In a way, the flippers are actually helping you and CAR because they are essentially eliminating a lot of your buyer competition by feeding the need of the “turnkey” buyer. If there were no flippers to fill this need, then everyone would have to buy a fixer and you would be competing with a lot more buyers to get that jewel in the bluff.
Participant“The markets are the flippers. The appraisals are using the comps that the flippers are selling.”
lol
Maybe if you are in the market for a “turnkey” house with a 5k home depot kitchen and a couple of 1k Ikea bathrooms. There are a decent number of “organic” sellers trying to sell great locations and great bones for fair market values. I think the real problem with the market is that for whatever reason 50-75% of the homes on the market are way overpriced with respect to recent comparable sales. With nary an exception, flipper or no flipper, houses priced to sell are the only houses moving these days.
Participant“The markets are the flippers. The appraisals are using the comps that the flippers are selling.”
lol
Maybe if you are in the market for a “turnkey” house with a 5k home depot kitchen and a couple of 1k Ikea bathrooms. There are a decent number of “organic” sellers trying to sell great locations and great bones for fair market values. I think the real problem with the market is that for whatever reason 50-75% of the homes on the market are way overpriced with respect to recent comparable sales. With nary an exception, flipper or no flipper, houses priced to sell are the only houses moving these days.
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