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pemeliza
Participantjstoesz, you are making a good point but I am not sure I would say that the “sea of demand” is driving prices down. What you said about yesterday’s “deal” being today’s “retail” price is exactly correct.
What is driving prices down (and basically what you are describing) is deflationary expectations. Buyer’s want to buy with a “cushion” because they expect that prices will be 10-20% lower in 6-12 months.
So why don’t buyers just wait 6-12 months and buy for a 10-20% discount over today’s prices instead of moaning and groaning about the “lack of well-priced inventory”? I have some opinions on this but take them with a grain of salt because I am just speculating.
1.) Many in the buyer pool today are exactly the same people that sat on the sidelines while the bubble first inflated and then deflated. They feel that they have already been sidelined for 5-10 years and that they should certainly not have to wait any longer for a house at a “fair” price.
2.) Many buyer’s realize that the low interest rates of today could be fleeting and that if they can get next year’s price at today’s rate then they come out ahead.
3.) Most of today’s buyers are looking for cream-puff properties (can you blame them?). They realize that regardless of the market that finding a special house in SD county has always been difficult and they are out looking just in case they can find that elusive combination of killer property and killer price.
4.) Regardless of how clear the evidence is that prices are going to be declining for the foreseeable future, there remains that sliver of doubt in the buyer’s mind. They all know that the FED is trying like mad to re-inflate. If they succeed (even just a little bit) then prices could firm and firm quickly in the most desirable parts of the country. If the herd starts to get a whiff of inflation things could change and quickly.
Participantjstoesz, you are making a good point but I am not sure I would say that the “sea of demand” is driving prices down. What you said about yesterday’s “deal” being today’s “retail” price is exactly correct.
What is driving prices down (and basically what you are describing) is deflationary expectations. Buyer’s want to buy with a “cushion” because they expect that prices will be 10-20% lower in 6-12 months.
So why don’t buyers just wait 6-12 months and buy for a 10-20% discount over today’s prices instead of moaning and groaning about the “lack of well-priced inventory”? I have some opinions on this but take them with a grain of salt because I am just speculating.
1.) Many in the buyer pool today are exactly the same people that sat on the sidelines while the bubble first inflated and then deflated. They feel that they have already been sidelined for 5-10 years and that they should certainly not have to wait any longer for a house at a “fair” price.
2.) Many buyer’s realize that the low interest rates of today could be fleeting and that if they can get next year’s price at today’s rate then they come out ahead.
3.) Most of today’s buyers are looking for cream-puff properties (can you blame them?). They realize that regardless of the market that finding a special house in SD county has always been difficult and they are out looking just in case they can find that elusive combination of killer property and killer price.
4.) Regardless of how clear the evidence is that prices are going to be declining for the foreseeable future, there remains that sliver of doubt in the buyer’s mind. They all know that the FED is trying like mad to re-inflate. If they succeed (even just a little bit) then prices could firm and firm quickly in the most desirable parts of the country. If the herd starts to get a whiff of inflation things could change and quickly.
ParticipantI agree with your post CAR, although I would say that it will be harder to get to the 2001 price levels on the lower end of spectrum because those prices are more interest rate dependent and there is much more buyer competition.
As a good example of that look at North Park. Houses in that neighborhood are flying off the shelves because apparently they are priced in the sweet spot of the market which because of the ultra low interest rates of today is considerably above 2000-2001 price levels.
The other key to getting top dollar in this market is to be selling a turn-key property. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates and will pay a lot of $$$ for a move-in ready house but many are not at all interested in a fixer even if it is in a much better location.
Thus, I think in this market there is tremendous opportunity in the over 1M market and also I believe some opportunity in the middle price ranges if you want to take on a project.
As a good example of the “project” type of buy in your neck of the woods consider this sale:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031038-440_Parkwood_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
IMHO, there is opportunity.
ParticipantI agree with your post CAR, although I would say that it will be harder to get to the 2001 price levels on the lower end of spectrum because those prices are more interest rate dependent and there is much more buyer competition.
As a good example of that look at North Park. Houses in that neighborhood are flying off the shelves because apparently they are priced in the sweet spot of the market which because of the ultra low interest rates of today is considerably above 2000-2001 price levels.
The other key to getting top dollar in this market is to be selling a turn-key property. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates and will pay a lot of $$$ for a move-in ready house but many are not at all interested in a fixer even if it is in a much better location.
Thus, I think in this market there is tremendous opportunity in the over 1M market and also I believe some opportunity in the middle price ranges if you want to take on a project.
As a good example of the “project” type of buy in your neck of the woods consider this sale:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031038-440_Parkwood_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
IMHO, there is opportunity.
ParticipantI agree with your post CAR, although I would say that it will be harder to get to the 2001 price levels on the lower end of spectrum because those prices are more interest rate dependent and there is much more buyer competition.
As a good example of that look at North Park. Houses in that neighborhood are flying off the shelves because apparently they are priced in the sweet spot of the market which because of the ultra low interest rates of today is considerably above 2000-2001 price levels.
The other key to getting top dollar in this market is to be selling a turn-key property. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates and will pay a lot of $$$ for a move-in ready house but many are not at all interested in a fixer even if it is in a much better location.
Thus, I think in this market there is tremendous opportunity in the over 1M market and also I believe some opportunity in the middle price ranges if you want to take on a project.
As a good example of the “project” type of buy in your neck of the woods consider this sale:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031038-440_Parkwood_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
IMHO, there is opportunity.
ParticipantI agree with your post CAR, although I would say that it will be harder to get to the 2001 price levels on the lower end of spectrum because those prices are more interest rate dependent and there is much more buyer competition.
As a good example of that look at North Park. Houses in that neighborhood are flying off the shelves because apparently they are priced in the sweet spot of the market which because of the ultra low interest rates of today is considerably above 2000-2001 price levels.
The other key to getting top dollar in this market is to be selling a turn-key property. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates and will pay a lot of $$$ for a move-in ready house but many are not at all interested in a fixer even if it is in a much better location.
Thus, I think in this market there is tremendous opportunity in the over 1M market and also I believe some opportunity in the middle price ranges if you want to take on a project.
As a good example of the “project” type of buy in your neck of the woods consider this sale:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031038-440_Parkwood_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
IMHO, there is opportunity.
ParticipantI agree with your post CAR, although I would say that it will be harder to get to the 2001 price levels on the lower end of spectrum because those prices are more interest rate dependent and there is much more buyer competition.
As a good example of that look at North Park. Houses in that neighborhood are flying off the shelves because apparently they are priced in the sweet spot of the market which because of the ultra low interest rates of today is considerably above 2000-2001 price levels.
The other key to getting top dollar in this market is to be selling a turn-key property. People want to take advantage of the low interest rates and will pay a lot of $$$ for a move-in ready house but many are not at all interested in a fixer even if it is in a much better location.
Thus, I think in this market there is tremendous opportunity in the over 1M market and also I believe some opportunity in the middle price ranges if you want to take on a project.
As a good example of the “project” type of buy in your neck of the woods consider this sale:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100031038-440_Parkwood_Ln_Encinitas_CA_92024
IMHO, there is opportunity.
Participanthttp://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100022547-1030_Calle_Anacapa_Encinitas_CA_92024
Wow, that house on 1030 Calle Anacapa sold for 865k in 1999. 1031 Calle Anacapa at 950k can’t be much higher than a 2001 nominal price then. Say what you want about the bears they have been right thus far.
sdr, is this the floor for these houses? Another 10-20% and they are at 1999 levels.
I am seeing some sales at this price range in Mission Hills trending toward the 2001 level as well.
Participanthttp://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100022547-1030_Calle_Anacapa_Encinitas_CA_92024
Wow, that house on 1030 Calle Anacapa sold for 865k in 1999. 1031 Calle Anacapa at 950k can’t be much higher than a 2001 nominal price then. Say what you want about the bears they have been right thus far.
sdr, is this the floor for these houses? Another 10-20% and they are at 1999 levels.
I am seeing some sales at this price range in Mission Hills trending toward the 2001 level as well.
Participanthttp://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100022547-1030_Calle_Anacapa_Encinitas_CA_92024
Wow, that house on 1030 Calle Anacapa sold for 865k in 1999. 1031 Calle Anacapa at 950k can’t be much higher than a 2001 nominal price then. Say what you want about the bears they have been right thus far.
sdr, is this the floor for these houses? Another 10-20% and they are at 1999 levels.
I am seeing some sales at this price range in Mission Hills trending toward the 2001 level as well.
Participanthttp://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100022547-1030_Calle_Anacapa_Encinitas_CA_92024
Wow, that house on 1030 Calle Anacapa sold for 865k in 1999. 1031 Calle Anacapa at 950k can’t be much higher than a 2001 nominal price then. Say what you want about the bears they have been right thus far.
sdr, is this the floor for these houses? Another 10-20% and they are at 1999 levels.
I am seeing some sales at this price range in Mission Hills trending toward the 2001 level as well.
Participanthttp://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100022547-1030_Calle_Anacapa_Encinitas_CA_92024
Wow, that house on 1030 Calle Anacapa sold for 865k in 1999. 1031 Calle Anacapa at 950k can’t be much higher than a 2001 nominal price then. Say what you want about the bears they have been right thus far.
sdr, is this the floor for these houses? Another 10-20% and they are at 1999 levels.
I am seeing some sales at this price range in Mission Hills trending toward the 2001 level as well.
ParticipantThe trophy homes pull up the value of the shacks especially if the shacks have a decent lot.
ParticipantThe trophy homes pull up the value of the shacks especially if the shacks have a decent lot.
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