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pemeliza
ParticipantBG, from what I could tell on google drive-by maps there is a one car garage behind the house coming off of Sutter. The lot size on the new listing is 4560 sf which is about the same as the others.
The bottom line IMHO is that if this house sells for 465k, then the market for low end properties in Mission Hills has moved down rather sharply since February (perhaps 10% or more). If it sits on the market at 465k then we have very clear evidence that the market has weakened substantially even at the low end of the price spectrum.
ParticipantBG, from what I could tell on google drive-by maps there is a one car garage behind the house coming off of Sutter. The lot size on the new listing is 4560 sf which is about the same as the others.
The bottom line IMHO is that if this house sells for 465k, then the market for low end properties in Mission Hills has moved down rather sharply since February (perhaps 10% or more). If it sits on the market at 465k then we have very clear evidence that the market has weakened substantially even at the low end of the price spectrum.
Participant460 parkwood closed for 665k in 2002
Sep 26, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $665,000
Given the condition of the house at 440 parkwood, I am guessing that 627k is a 2002 price which is unusual for west of the I-5 in that price range.
Participant460 parkwood closed for 665k in 2002
Sep 26, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $665,000
Given the condition of the house at 440 parkwood, I am guessing that 627k is a 2002 price which is unusual for west of the I-5 in that price range.
Participant460 parkwood closed for 665k in 2002
Sep 26, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $665,000
Given the condition of the house at 440 parkwood, I am guessing that 627k is a 2002 price which is unusual for west of the I-5 in that price range.
Participant460 parkwood closed for 665k in 2002
Sep 26, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $665,000
Given the condition of the house at 440 parkwood, I am guessing that 627k is a 2002 price which is unusual for west of the I-5 in that price range.
Participant460 parkwood closed for 665k in 2002
Sep 26, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $665,000
Given the condition of the house at 440 parkwood, I am guessing that 627k is a 2002 price which is unusual for west of the I-5 in that price range.
ParticipantYes UCGal, I remember when JTR did that piece. It was interesting that many people thought that it would sell for way over list price but it didn’t. Even if CAR missed that one it is a comparable and so something like that house in that price range could easily come up again. The fact that a buyer didn’t step up and overpay for the place should be encouraging to a buyer looking for a similar property and location. Thus, I think there is some opportunity even in the best locations and most competitive price ranges if you don’t mind a project.
ParticipantYes UCGal, I remember when JTR did that piece. It was interesting that many people thought that it would sell for way over list price but it didn’t. Even if CAR missed that one it is a comparable and so something like that house in that price range could easily come up again. The fact that a buyer didn’t step up and overpay for the place should be encouraging to a buyer looking for a similar property and location. Thus, I think there is some opportunity even in the best locations and most competitive price ranges if you don’t mind a project.
ParticipantYes UCGal, I remember when JTR did that piece. It was interesting that many people thought that it would sell for way over list price but it didn’t. Even if CAR missed that one it is a comparable and so something like that house in that price range could easily come up again. The fact that a buyer didn’t step up and overpay for the place should be encouraging to a buyer looking for a similar property and location. Thus, I think there is some opportunity even in the best locations and most competitive price ranges if you don’t mind a project.
ParticipantYes UCGal, I remember when JTR did that piece. It was interesting that many people thought that it would sell for way over list price but it didn’t. Even if CAR missed that one it is a comparable and so something like that house in that price range could easily come up again. The fact that a buyer didn’t step up and overpay for the place should be encouraging to a buyer looking for a similar property and location. Thus, I think there is some opportunity even in the best locations and most competitive price ranges if you don’t mind a project.
ParticipantYes UCGal, I remember when JTR did that piece. It was interesting that many people thought that it would sell for way over list price but it didn’t. Even if CAR missed that one it is a comparable and so something like that house in that price range could easily come up again. The fact that a buyer didn’t step up and overpay for the place should be encouraging to a buyer looking for a similar property and location. Thus, I think there is some opportunity even in the best locations and most competitive price ranges if you don’t mind a project.
Participantjstoesz, you are making a good point but I am not sure I would say that the “sea of demand” is driving prices down. What you said about yesterday’s “deal” being today’s “retail” price is exactly correct.
What is driving prices down (and basically what you are describing) is deflationary expectations. Buyer’s want to buy with a “cushion” because they expect that prices will be 10-20% lower in 6-12 months.
So why don’t buyers just wait 6-12 months and buy for a 10-20% discount over today’s prices instead of moaning and groaning about the “lack of well-priced inventory”? I have some opinions on this but take them with a grain of salt because I am just speculating.
1.) Many in the buyer pool today are exactly the same people that sat on the sidelines while the bubble first inflated and then deflated. They feel that they have already been sidelined for 5-10 years and that they should certainly not have to wait any longer for a house at a “fair” price.
2.) Many buyer’s realize that the low interest rates of today could be fleeting and that if they can get next year’s price at today’s rate then they come out ahead.
3.) Most of today’s buyers are looking for cream-puff properties (can you blame them?). They realize that regardless of the market that finding a special house in SD county has always been difficult and they are out looking just in case they can find that elusive combination of killer property and killer price.
4.) Regardless of how clear the evidence is that prices are going to be declining for the foreseeable future, there remains that sliver of doubt in the buyer’s mind. They all know that the FED is trying like mad to re-inflate. If they succeed (even just a little bit) then prices could firm and firm quickly in the most desirable parts of the country. If the herd starts to get a whiff of inflation things could change and quickly.
Participantjstoesz, you are making a good point but I am not sure I would say that the “sea of demand” is driving prices down. What you said about yesterday’s “deal” being today’s “retail” price is exactly correct.
What is driving prices down (and basically what you are describing) is deflationary expectations. Buyer’s want to buy with a “cushion” because they expect that prices will be 10-20% lower in 6-12 months.
So why don’t buyers just wait 6-12 months and buy for a 10-20% discount over today’s prices instead of moaning and groaning about the “lack of well-priced inventory”? I have some opinions on this but take them with a grain of salt because I am just speculating.
1.) Many in the buyer pool today are exactly the same people that sat on the sidelines while the bubble first inflated and then deflated. They feel that they have already been sidelined for 5-10 years and that they should certainly not have to wait any longer for a house at a “fair” price.
2.) Many buyer’s realize that the low interest rates of today could be fleeting and that if they can get next year’s price at today’s rate then they come out ahead.
3.) Most of today’s buyers are looking for cream-puff properties (can you blame them?). They realize that regardless of the market that finding a special house in SD county has always been difficult and they are out looking just in case they can find that elusive combination of killer property and killer price.
4.) Regardless of how clear the evidence is that prices are going to be declining for the foreseeable future, there remains that sliver of doubt in the buyer’s mind. They all know that the FED is trying like mad to re-inflate. If they succeed (even just a little bit) then prices could firm and firm quickly in the most desirable parts of the country. If the herd starts to get a whiff of inflation things could change and quickly.
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