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patientrenter
Participantsdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?
If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)
Patient renter in OC
Participantsdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?
If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)
Patient renter in OC
Participantsdr, why wouldn’t a smart middle-class European looking to buy a property in the US because of price, first convert a bunch of their Euro money to dollars now, and then wait out the expected US housing market downturn before converting those dollars into real property?
If they are motivated to buy now in the US by low prices, why wouldn’t they make an effort to buy at the lowest possible price? (I’m not talking about people in the beach-house-wealthy category.)
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantHereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.
I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantHereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.
I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantHereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.
I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantHereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.
I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantHereWeGo, there won’t be any moment of panic. Air will come out of this bubble ever so slowly. Just check the last downturn, in 1990-1996. In this one, the speed down is faster, but we have a lot further to go because the run-up was much bigger than last time. So it may take about as long to fully deflate.
I agree with Ex-SD that many sellers will retain hopes of a rebound during most of Spring and Summer. By Fall, the stragglers will begin to realize that there will be no lasting rebound for years. By then, we’ll see fewer stories of a “bottom next year”.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantThere are all sorts of tricks that involve having the ultimate lender take most of the market losses when times are bad, without equal participation in market gains when times are good. Some of these tricks are legal, and some are not. I’ve seen both. From what I’ve heard, too few of these abuses are prosecuted (if illegal) to effectively prevent it from happening on a broad scale.
Will such abuses become normal social behavior? Calculated Risk posed that question the other day. If everyone were to pursue their personal interests to the limit of the law, society in general would fall apart. If every borrower starts to take maximum personal advantage of the extremely favorable options built into most mortgages, then I’ll guess that mortgages as we know them will not be here in 5 years time.
Apparently investors have been writing these one-sided contracts for years, and are about to take lots more punishment because of that. Why they keep handing money over for this kind of arrangement is beyond me, but every time I see HLS and other mortgage brokers post here, they say they can still get people loans with less than 20% of their own money down, so the game is continuing, for a while.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantThere are all sorts of tricks that involve having the ultimate lender take most of the market losses when times are bad, without equal participation in market gains when times are good. Some of these tricks are legal, and some are not. I’ve seen both. From what I’ve heard, too few of these abuses are prosecuted (if illegal) to effectively prevent it from happening on a broad scale.
Will such abuses become normal social behavior? Calculated Risk posed that question the other day. If everyone were to pursue their personal interests to the limit of the law, society in general would fall apart. If every borrower starts to take maximum personal advantage of the extremely favorable options built into most mortgages, then I’ll guess that mortgages as we know them will not be here in 5 years time.
Apparently investors have been writing these one-sided contracts for years, and are about to take lots more punishment because of that. Why they keep handing money over for this kind of arrangement is beyond me, but every time I see HLS and other mortgage brokers post here, they say they can still get people loans with less than 20% of their own money down, so the game is continuing, for a while.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantThere are all sorts of tricks that involve having the ultimate lender take most of the market losses when times are bad, without equal participation in market gains when times are good. Some of these tricks are legal, and some are not. I’ve seen both. From what I’ve heard, too few of these abuses are prosecuted (if illegal) to effectively prevent it from happening on a broad scale.
Will such abuses become normal social behavior? Calculated Risk posed that question the other day. If everyone were to pursue their personal interests to the limit of the law, society in general would fall apart. If every borrower starts to take maximum personal advantage of the extremely favorable options built into most mortgages, then I’ll guess that mortgages as we know them will not be here in 5 years time.
Apparently investors have been writing these one-sided contracts for years, and are about to take lots more punishment because of that. Why they keep handing money over for this kind of arrangement is beyond me, but every time I see HLS and other mortgage brokers post here, they say they can still get people loans with less than 20% of their own money down, so the game is continuing, for a while.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantThere are all sorts of tricks that involve having the ultimate lender take most of the market losses when times are bad, without equal participation in market gains when times are good. Some of these tricks are legal, and some are not. I’ve seen both. From what I’ve heard, too few of these abuses are prosecuted (if illegal) to effectively prevent it from happening on a broad scale.
Will such abuses become normal social behavior? Calculated Risk posed that question the other day. If everyone were to pursue their personal interests to the limit of the law, society in general would fall apart. If every borrower starts to take maximum personal advantage of the extremely favorable options built into most mortgages, then I’ll guess that mortgages as we know them will not be here in 5 years time.
Apparently investors have been writing these one-sided contracts for years, and are about to take lots more punishment because of that. Why they keep handing money over for this kind of arrangement is beyond me, but every time I see HLS and other mortgage brokers post here, they say they can still get people loans with less than 20% of their own money down, so the game is continuing, for a while.
Patient renter in OC
ParticipantThere are all sorts of tricks that involve having the ultimate lender take most of the market losses when times are bad, without equal participation in market gains when times are good. Some of these tricks are legal, and some are not. I’ve seen both. From what I’ve heard, too few of these abuses are prosecuted (if illegal) to effectively prevent it from happening on a broad scale.
Will such abuses become normal social behavior? Calculated Risk posed that question the other day. If everyone were to pursue their personal interests to the limit of the law, society in general would fall apart. If every borrower starts to take maximum personal advantage of the extremely favorable options built into most mortgages, then I’ll guess that mortgages as we know them will not be here in 5 years time.
Apparently investors have been writing these one-sided contracts for years, and are about to take lots more punishment because of that. Why they keep handing money over for this kind of arrangement is beyond me, but every time I see HLS and other mortgage brokers post here, they say they can still get people loans with less than 20% of their own money down, so the game is continuing, for a while.
Patient renter in OC
Participantpfflyer, if you haven’t already done it, you may want to check out Rich’s Dec 26 post “October Case-Shiller Prices”. The picture says as much as anyone here knows, I suspect.
raptorduck, another poster looking for a high-end home, doesn’t appear to be in any rush, so I suspect he sees more downside potential for high-end prices than upside. But I’ll let him speak for himself.
Patient renter in OC
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