Panic in 2008?

[LA_Renter]

Good question. If we were to have an actual panic it would be in 2008 IMO. When do we hit a critical mass?? The holidays for me this year have been very different regarding relatives reactions to my housing bubble views. Last year they just looked at me weird and talked about it behind my back, now everything is out in the open and they are asking me questions on how this will play out. So we are at an…”OK there was a housing bubble” moment. With that said I don’t think people understand exactly how serious some of these problems are especially surrounding the credit crisis that still shows no sign of abating. I think a catalyst for a panic would be some sort of credit event in the markets ie. a large institution goes belly up, a day when the market can’t open, etc. Now combine that with an election year and all the politicians exploiting the crisis for their own benefit and having this info filter into, The Today Show, Good Morning America, Oprah…etc. You could really see a turning of the herd in the other direction. Once it really sinks in that you can be under water by 150K to 300K+ paying an reset mortgage thats soaking up to 60%+ of your income…….yea you could have a panic.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with LA on this one, the past bubbles didn’t have panic but the past bubble didn’t have the I/O, adjustables and teaser rates to extent that this one did. It isn’t just a percentage points higher, the majority of the loans from 2003-2006 were not 30 yr fixed in So Cal. The past bubble was part of a normal cycle with normal financing and for the most part the only people who owned homes could afford them and could afford to ride it out. This bubble is a whole different ball game and I think panic will hit in 2008. I think the herd has turned, I think that the holidays derailed the decline and kept inventory off the market. As the forclosures drive the comps down, even if you find a buyer in the spring, the lenders wont make the loans because they have deemed So Cal a declining market, people won’t have the downpayment, nobody will be able to move up and we will have real estate grid lock. Fasten your seat belts.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with LA on this one, the past bubbles didn’t have panic but the past bubble didn’t have the I/O, adjustables and teaser rates to extent that this one did. It isn’t just a percentage points higher, the majority of the loans from 2003-2006 were not 30 yr fixed in So Cal. The past bubble was part of a normal cycle with normal financing and for the most part the only people who owned homes could afford them and could afford to ride it out. This bubble is a whole different ball game and I think panic will hit in 2008. I think the herd has turned, I think that the holidays derailed the decline and kept inventory off the market. As the forclosures drive the comps down, even if you find a buyer in the spring, the lenders wont make the loans because they have deemed So Cal a declining market, people won’t have the downpayment, nobody will be able to move up and we will have real estate grid lock. Fasten your seat belts.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with LA on this one, the past bubbles didn’t have panic but the past bubble didn’t have the I/O, adjustables and teaser rates to extent that this one did. It isn’t just a percentage points higher, the majority of the loans from 2003-2006 were not 30 yr fixed in So Cal. The past bubble was part of a normal cycle with normal financing and for the most part the only people who owned homes could afford them and could afford to ride it out. This bubble is a whole different ball game and I think panic will hit in 2008. I think the herd has turned, I think that the holidays derailed the decline and kept inventory off the market. As the forclosures drive the comps down, even if you find a buyer in the spring, the lenders wont make the loans because they have deemed So Cal a declining market, people won’t have the downpayment, nobody will be able to move up and we will have real estate grid lock. Fasten your seat belts.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with LA on this one, the past bubbles didn’t have panic but the past bubble didn’t have the I/O, adjustables and teaser rates to extent that this one did. It isn’t just a percentage points higher, the majority of the loans from 2003-2006 were not 30 yr fixed in So Cal. The past bubble was part of a normal cycle with normal financing and for the most part the only people who owned homes could afford them and could afford to ride it out. This bubble is a whole different ball game and I think panic will hit in 2008. I think the herd has turned, I think that the holidays derailed the decline and kept inventory off the market. As the forclosures drive the comps down, even if you find a buyer in the spring, the lenders wont make the loans because they have deemed So Cal a declining market, people won’t have the downpayment, nobody will be able to move up and we will have real estate grid lock. Fasten your seat belts.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with LA on this one, the past bubbles didn’t have panic but the past bubble didn’t have the I/O, adjustables and teaser rates to extent that this one did. It isn’t just a percentage points higher, the majority of the loans from 2003-2006 were not 30 yr fixed in So Cal. The past bubble was part of a normal cycle with normal financing and for the most part the only people who owned homes could afford them and could afford to ride it out. This bubble is a whole different ball game and I think panic will hit in 2008. I think the herd has turned, I think that the holidays derailed the decline and kept inventory off the market. As the forclosures drive the comps down, even if you find a buyer in the spring, the lenders wont make the loans because they have deemed So Cal a declining market, people won’t have the downpayment, nobody will be able to move up and we will have real estate grid lock. Fasten your seat belts.

[hipmatt]

great thread, great posts all. Some of my friends and family looked at me like I was crazy the last 2 years when I was calling for the bursting of the housing bubble too. I was so sure it was coming that I strongly urged a friend of mine to sell in late 2006 after selling mine in mid 2005. Luckily he got out just in time, and every time he sees me he thanks me for my advice(the worse things get) and tells me all the horror stories from his old neighborhood. The last time he saw me he said I saved him 150k, according to the recent listings.

Now that the things we’ve been talking about are coming to fruition, people take what I have to say a bit more seriously.

[hipmatt]

great thread, great posts all. Some of my friends and family looked at me like I was crazy the last 2 years when I was calling for the bursting of the housing bubble too. I was so sure it was coming that I strongly urged a friend of mine to sell in late 2006 after selling mine in mid 2005. Luckily he got out just in time, and every time he sees me he thanks me for my advice(the worse things get) and tells me all the horror stories from his old neighborhood. The last time he saw me he said I saved him 150k, according to the recent listings.

Now that the things we’ve been talking about are coming to fruition, people take what I have to say a bit more seriously.

[hipmatt]

great thread, great posts all. Some of my friends and family looked at me like I was crazy the last 2 years when I was calling for the bursting of the housing bubble too. I was so sure it was coming that I strongly urged a friend of mine to sell in late 2006 after selling mine in mid 2005. Luckily he got out just in time, and every time he sees me he thanks me for my advice(the worse things get) and tells me all the horror stories from his old neighborhood. The last time he saw me he said I saved him 150k, according to the recent listings.

Now that the things we’ve been talking about are coming to fruition, people take what I have to say a bit more seriously.

[hipmatt]

great thread, great posts all. Some of my friends and family looked at me like I was crazy the last 2 years when I was calling for the bursting of the housing bubble too. I was so sure it was coming that I strongly urged a friend of mine to sell in late 2006 after selling mine in mid 2005. Luckily he got out just in time, and every time he sees me he thanks me for my advice(the worse things get) and tells me all the horror stories from his old neighborhood. The last time he saw me he said I saved him 150k, according to the recent listings.

Now that the things we’ve been talking about are coming to fruition, people take what I have to say a bit more seriously.

[hipmatt]

great thread, great posts all. Some of my friends and family looked at me like I was crazy the last 2 years when I was calling for the bursting of the housing bubble too. I was so sure it was coming that I strongly urged a friend of mine to sell in late 2006 after selling mine in mid 2005. Luckily he got out just in time, and every time he sees me he thanks me for my advice(the worse things get) and tells me all the horror stories from his old neighborhood. The last time he saw me he said I saved him 150k, according to the recent listings.

Now that the things we’ve been talking about are coming to fruition, people take what I have to say a bit more seriously.

[bubba99]

Very soon we will have employment/unemployment numbers for 2007. Initially they will be O.K. The statistical model that BLS is using ignores the 5% of the work force that has been out of work for a year or more, and 80% of the remainder of the employment number is based on population, not real/actual employment numbers.

Since population is still headed up, the employment numbers will still be O.K. despite the construction, real estate, and finance layoffs. We will continue to see un-employment numbers below 5% through the middle of 2008, and most of America will still believe that we are not in a real recession, just a real estate slow down. The real un-employment numbers are already about 10% and growing.

The real kicker is that inflation will continue to grow, and is already in the neighborhood of 10% per year if calculated the same way it was in the 1970’s. The “new” way ignores most upticks by geometrically weighting increases and changing the “bread basket” to include a lot of “magic” calculations to lower the CPI in order to overstate the GDP. GDP is already negative and has been for some time if inflation is calculate in a non-political way.

So America has probably been in a recession for most of 2007, but the media and most of American do not know, nor understand why or what it means. So as long as the talking heads tell everyone that the economic numbers look good, the market and housing will stay “bubbled”. Even if ma and pa kettle are underwater, they will believe that a turn around is just ahead. Or at least until a real economic event like the trillions is credit default swaps based on mortgages explode.

[bubba99]

Very soon we will have employment/unemployment numbers for 2007. Initially they will be O.K. The statistical model that BLS is using ignores the 5% of the work force that has been out of work for a year or more, and 80% of the remainder of the employment number is based on population, not real/actual employment numbers.

Since population is still headed up, the employment numbers will still be O.K. despite the construction, real estate, and finance layoffs. We will continue to see un-employment numbers below 5% through the middle of 2008, and most of America will still believe that we are not in a real recession, just a real estate slow down. The real un-employment numbers are already about 10% and growing.

The real kicker is that inflation will continue to grow, and is already in the neighborhood of 10% per year if calculated the same way it was in the 1970’s. The “new” way ignores most upticks by geometrically weighting increases and changing the “bread basket” to include a lot of “magic” calculations to lower the CPI in order to overstate the GDP. GDP is already negative and has been for some time if inflation is calculate in a non-political way.

So America has probably been in a recession for most of 2007, but the media and most of American do not know, nor understand why or what it means. So as long as the talking heads tell everyone that the economic numbers look good, the market and housing will stay “bubbled”. Even if ma and pa kettle are underwater, they will believe that a turn around is just ahead. Or at least until a real economic event like the trillions is credit default swaps based on mortgages explode.

[bubba99]

Very soon we will have employment/unemployment numbers for 2007. Initially they will be O.K. The statistical model that BLS is using ignores the 5% of the work force that has been out of work for a year or more, and 80% of the remainder of the employment number is based on population, not real/actual employment numbers.

Since population is still headed up, the employment numbers will still be O.K. despite the construction, real estate, and finance layoffs. We will continue to see un-employment numbers below 5% through the middle of 2008, and most of America will still believe that we are not in a real recession, just a real estate slow down. The real un-employment numbers are already about 10% and growing.

The real kicker is that inflation will continue to grow, and is already in the neighborhood of 10% per year if calculated the same way it was in the 1970’s. The “new” way ignores most upticks by geometrically weighting increases and changing the “bread basket” to include a lot of “magic” calculations to lower the CPI in order to overstate the GDP. GDP is already negative and has been for some time if inflation is calculate in a non-political way.

So America has probably been in a recession for most of 2007, but the media and most of American do not know, nor understand why or what it means. So as long as the talking heads tell everyone that the economic numbers look good, the market and housing will stay “bubbled”. Even if ma and pa kettle are underwater, they will believe that a turn around is just ahead. Or at least until a real economic event like the trillions is credit default swaps based on mortgages explode.

[bubba99]

Very soon we will have employment/unemployment numbers for 2007. Initially they will be O.K. The statistical model that BLS is using ignores the 5% of the work force that has been out of work for a year or more, and 80% of the remainder of the employment number is based on population, not real/actual employment numbers.

Since population is still headed up, the employment numbers will still be O.K. despite the construction, real estate, and finance layoffs. We will continue to see un-employment numbers below 5% through the middle of 2008, and most of America will still believe that we are not in a real recession, just a real estate slow down. The real un-employment numbers are already about 10% and growing.

The real kicker is that inflation will continue to grow, and is already in the neighborhood of 10% per year if calculated the same way it was in the 1970’s. The “new” way ignores most upticks by geometrically weighting increases and changing the “bread basket” to include a lot of “magic” calculations to lower the CPI in order to overstate the GDP. GDP is already negative and has been for some time if inflation is calculate in a non-political way.

So America has probably been in a recession for most of 2007, but the media and most of American do not know, nor understand why or what it means. So as long as the talking heads tell everyone that the economic numbers look good, the market and housing will stay “bubbled”. Even if ma and pa kettle are underwater, they will believe that a turn around is just ahead. Or at least until a real economic event like the trillions is credit default swaps based on mortgages explode.

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