[patientrenter]

And how would you have done that, PadreBrian? I knew about the various ABXs, and wanted to short some of them in late May ’07, but as far as I could tell, you had to be a Qualified Institutional Buyer to do that, and have enough money to get an investment bank’s attention and enter into a contract with them. I don’t think there were any exchange-traded derivatives allowing you to short the ABXs.

Does anyone on this board know if the unwashed masses (well, let’s say an Accredited Investor) could have shorted the ABX’s? Chris S?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

And how would you have done that, PadreBrian? I knew about the various ABXs, and wanted to short some of them in late May ’07, but as far as I could tell, you had to be a Qualified Institutional Buyer to do that, and have enough money to get an investment bank’s attention and enter into a contract with them. I don’t think there were any exchange-traded derivatives allowing you to short the ABXs.

Does anyone on this board know if the unwashed masses (well, let’s say an Accredited Investor) could have shorted the ABX’s? Chris S?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

And how would you have done that, PadreBrian? I knew about the various ABXs, and wanted to short some of them in late May ’07, but as far as I could tell, you had to be a Qualified Institutional Buyer to do that, and have enough money to get an investment bank’s attention and enter into a contract with them. I don’t think there were any exchange-traded derivatives allowing you to short the ABXs.

Does anyone on this board know if the unwashed masses (well, let’s say an Accredited Investor) could have shorted the ABX’s? Chris S?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

And how would you have done that, PadreBrian? I knew about the various ABXs, and wanted to short some of them in late May ’07, but as far as I could tell, you had to be a Qualified Institutional Buyer to do that, and have enough money to get an investment bank’s attention and enter into a contract with them. I don’t think there were any exchange-traded derivatives allowing you to short the ABXs.

Does anyone on this board know if the unwashed masses (well, let’s say an Accredited Investor) could have shorted the ABX’s? Chris S?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

flu, I am down on my income portfolio (dividend-paying stocks) by… something. I use the portfolio for income, so I don’t pay as much attention to the market value. National City bank is in there, and some other banks, so I expect the dividends will be down a bit next year. Market values are probably down by 2-5% from year-end. What I care about is the dividends, and I’ll just have to wait and see what happens to dividends in the aggregate in this recession.

To hedge any loss of future dividends from some of my dividend-paying companies suffering permanent damage, I bought yen/british pound futures and yen/euro futures in mid-Dec, for a total notional amount equal to 150% of my stock portfolio (to account for a 1/3 tax rate on the futures). Overall, I am probably ahead by a few %.

I wish you a speedy recovery.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

flu, I am down on my income portfolio (dividend-paying stocks) by… something. I use the portfolio for income, so I don’t pay as much attention to the market value. National City bank is in there, and some other banks, so I expect the dividends will be down a bit next year. Market values are probably down by 2-5% from year-end. What I care about is the dividends, and I’ll just have to wait and see what happens to dividends in the aggregate in this recession.

To hedge any loss of future dividends from some of my dividend-paying companies suffering permanent damage, I bought yen/british pound futures and yen/euro futures in mid-Dec, for a total notional amount equal to 150% of my stock portfolio (to account for a 1/3 tax rate on the futures). Overall, I am probably ahead by a few %.

I wish you a speedy recovery.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

flu, I am down on my income portfolio (dividend-paying stocks) by… something. I use the portfolio for income, so I don’t pay as much attention to the market value. National City bank is in there, and some other banks, so I expect the dividends will be down a bit next year. Market values are probably down by 2-5% from year-end. What I care about is the dividends, and I’ll just have to wait and see what happens to dividends in the aggregate in this recession.

To hedge any loss of future dividends from some of my dividend-paying companies suffering permanent damage, I bought yen/british pound futures and yen/euro futures in mid-Dec, for a total notional amount equal to 150% of my stock portfolio (to account for a 1/3 tax rate on the futures). Overall, I am probably ahead by a few %.

I wish you a speedy recovery.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

flu, I am down on my income portfolio (dividend-paying stocks) by… something. I use the portfolio for income, so I don’t pay as much attention to the market value. National City bank is in there, and some other banks, so I expect the dividends will be down a bit next year. Market values are probably down by 2-5% from year-end. What I care about is the dividends, and I’ll just have to wait and see what happens to dividends in the aggregate in this recession.

To hedge any loss of future dividends from some of my dividend-paying companies suffering permanent damage, I bought yen/british pound futures and yen/euro futures in mid-Dec, for a total notional amount equal to 150% of my stock portfolio (to account for a 1/3 tax rate on the futures). Overall, I am probably ahead by a few %.

I wish you a speedy recovery.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

flu, I am down on my income portfolio (dividend-paying stocks) by… something. I use the portfolio for income, so I don’t pay as much attention to the market value. National City bank is in there, and some other banks, so I expect the dividends will be down a bit next year. Market values are probably down by 2-5% from year-end. What I care about is the dividends, and I’ll just have to wait and see what happens to dividends in the aggregate in this recession.

To hedge any loss of future dividends from some of my dividend-paying companies suffering permanent damage, I bought yen/british pound futures and yen/euro futures in mid-Dec, for a total notional amount equal to 150% of my stock portfolio (to account for a 1/3 tax rate on the futures). Overall, I am probably ahead by a few %.

I wish you a speedy recovery.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

NeetaT, I can’t figure you out at all. From your posts, I gather you make good money, so you must be smart. You save a lot. You eschew all debt (like me), and all equity-type investments (like me until a couple of years ago). So you’re very risk-averse. You’re also clearly a civilized and polite person.

Although you avoid stocks and other investments that have risk and fully disclose their risks, you are happy to invest in the hairiest get-rich-quick slimeball schemes that you know nothing about, as long as they don’t disclose, and maybe even hide, their risks.

My strong advice to you is to assume first that any investment that promises to pay more than risk-free Treasury yields is risky, and the amount of risk is in direct proportion to the extra expected return. Then your only goal in investigating a specific investment is to learn fully what the risks are, and deciding if you’re comfortable with them. If the degree of risk appears low compared to the return, then there is a 99.99% chance that you’ve overlooked one of the risks.

Sorry if I sound like I’m lecturing, but you don’t seem like you deserve to get ripped off, or even just unpleasantly surprised. I sure hope you get your money back.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

NeetaT, I can’t figure you out at all. From your posts, I gather you make good money, so you must be smart. You save a lot. You eschew all debt (like me), and all equity-type investments (like me until a couple of years ago). So you’re very risk-averse. You’re also clearly a civilized and polite person.

Although you avoid stocks and other investments that have risk and fully disclose their risks, you are happy to invest in the hairiest get-rich-quick slimeball schemes that you know nothing about, as long as they don’t disclose, and maybe even hide, their risks.

My strong advice to you is to assume first that any investment that promises to pay more than risk-free Treasury yields is risky, and the amount of risk is in direct proportion to the extra expected return. Then your only goal in investigating a specific investment is to learn fully what the risks are, and deciding if you’re comfortable with them. If the degree of risk appears low compared to the return, then there is a 99.99% chance that you’ve overlooked one of the risks.

Sorry if I sound like I’m lecturing, but you don’t seem like you deserve to get ripped off, or even just unpleasantly surprised. I sure hope you get your money back.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

NeetaT, I can’t figure you out at all. From your posts, I gather you make good money, so you must be smart. You save a lot. You eschew all debt (like me), and all equity-type investments (like me until a couple of years ago). So you’re very risk-averse. You’re also clearly a civilized and polite person.

Although you avoid stocks and other investments that have risk and fully disclose their risks, you are happy to invest in the hairiest get-rich-quick slimeball schemes that you know nothing about, as long as they don’t disclose, and maybe even hide, their risks.

My strong advice to you is to assume first that any investment that promises to pay more than risk-free Treasury yields is risky, and the amount of risk is in direct proportion to the extra expected return. Then your only goal in investigating a specific investment is to learn fully what the risks are, and deciding if you’re comfortable with them. If the degree of risk appears low compared to the return, then there is a 99.99% chance that you’ve overlooked one of the risks.

Sorry if I sound like I’m lecturing, but you don’t seem like you deserve to get ripped off, or even just unpleasantly surprised. I sure hope you get your money back.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

NeetaT, I can’t figure you out at all. From your posts, I gather you make good money, so you must be smart. You save a lot. You eschew all debt (like me), and all equity-type investments (like me until a couple of years ago). So you’re very risk-averse. You’re also clearly a civilized and polite person.

Although you avoid stocks and other investments that have risk and fully disclose their risks, you are happy to invest in the hairiest get-rich-quick slimeball schemes that you know nothing about, as long as they don’t disclose, and maybe even hide, their risks.

My strong advice to you is to assume first that any investment that promises to pay more than risk-free Treasury yields is risky, and the amount of risk is in direct proportion to the extra expected return. Then your only goal in investigating a specific investment is to learn fully what the risks are, and deciding if you’re comfortable with them. If the degree of risk appears low compared to the return, then there is a 99.99% chance that you’ve overlooked one of the risks.

Sorry if I sound like I’m lecturing, but you don’t seem like you deserve to get ripped off, or even just unpleasantly surprised. I sure hope you get your money back.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

NeetaT, I can’t figure you out at all. From your posts, I gather you make good money, so you must be smart. You save a lot. You eschew all debt (like me), and all equity-type investments (like me until a couple of years ago). So you’re very risk-averse. You’re also clearly a civilized and polite person.

Although you avoid stocks and other investments that have risk and fully disclose their risks, you are happy to invest in the hairiest get-rich-quick slimeball schemes that you know nothing about, as long as they don’t disclose, and maybe even hide, their risks.

My strong advice to you is to assume first that any investment that promises to pay more than risk-free Treasury yields is risky, and the amount of risk is in direct proportion to the extra expected return. Then your only goal in investigating a specific investment is to learn fully what the risks are, and deciding if you’re comfortable with them. If the degree of risk appears low compared to the return, then there is a 99.99% chance that you’ve overlooked one of the risks.

Sorry if I sound like I’m lecturing, but you don’t seem like you deserve to get ripped off, or even just unpleasantly surprised. I sure hope you get your money back.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

davelj’s scenario looks reasonable, although I am more conservative myself.

For every year you want to be able to live off savings, you will need today to earn a lot more than you spend. Let’s make some assumptions and do simple math here:

Assumptions
1. Assume you’ll think you have enough when your savings would last you through age 92.

2. Assume you first become able to retire when you’re age 62.

Simple math
Under these assumptions, you’ll be earning for (62-42) / (92-42) = 20/50 = 40% of your life. So if you spend 40% of your net after-tax income during those earning years (including expenditures on cars and rent or other housing expenses) and save the other 60%, you should be on track for retirement as early as age 62.

You can adjust the numbers to fit with your own goals for financial independence and security.

What I am doing here is conservative because it assumes your son and others in his generation who are still working when you want to be retired will only want to provide you with $1’s worth of real goods and services to you for each $1’s worth of goods and services you provided to his generation. Most baby boomers assume the generation after them will be much more generous than that, even though there are fewer of them. We shall see.

Patient renter in OC

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