[quote=SD Realtor]I am not saying that the GDP will not continue to fall or that the economy is in bad shape. That is not a challenging prognostication.
Anyways, tell you what, all I can tell is what I see actually happening verses your predictions of what will happen. Back in 06 lots of people who posted here were cracking lots of great jokes about the 30k inventory levels we would see. Lots of talk about how the lenders would go out of business. Lots of talk about how we would all get fantastic deals. Not much talk that the government would through 12 trillion of our tax money at the lending industry, insurance industry, or *insert industry here*. Not much talk of regulatory moves by the government to stem foreclosures.
My point is that I can only tell you what is happening not what will happen.
However I will go out on a limb and say none of us here, not you, or me, or most anyone else, will get the deals that investors get. Not now, not in the future. When you finally acknowledge the game is rigged you stand a better chance of understanding how to play it, rather then waiting for a level playing field.
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money can be made flipping houses in this market, momentarily, but
I see this enormous wave of trouble headed at the financial sector.
The largest wve of troubled Alt-A and Option Arms are still inbound.
If the Chinese start insisting on higher interest rates, this whole
game will unwind fast. the first of the 5 year IO’s, ARMS and
O-As start recasting next year. With ZIRP it’s a good deal for them,
but they are all underwater. If Real rates return, and we are seeing hints of that, all those notes will go bust.
Now most likely we will see mortgage relief through th ebankruptcy code for
reisdences, but, all those speculative condos?
I just drive around clarendon at night, look at dark buildings and now
that next year, I can buy one of those places half off.
Yes the big guys are making money now, but, there is going to be
such a wave of disruption coming, that, dry powder remains a good idea.
