[Ozzie]

I work out like a fiend so my arteries should be very clean, and supposedly the Wagyu/Kobe beef (which is excellent BTW) contains the “good” fat. Just bought some at Seaside market in Cardiff the other day.

Barring a recession, a Dow at 11,000 would offer some screaming deals. 95% of my equity positions are for the long haul, but I have some cash waiting on the sidelines if things really get out of control. Heck, the PE of the SP 500 is barely above historical averages.

As for this debt bubble, I am more and more wary of the financials because I just don’t know what earnings are real anymore. If they can’t even figure out what the products they are selling to insitutional investors are worth how can we value the company? Smells like Enron. I’d like to hear Warren Buffet’s take on the credit markets. A few years ago I woke up (literally at night I had an epiphany)and asked myself “why am I trying to pick stocks when BRK offers you what is essentially the best mutual fund of all time?” I bought BRK the next day. Hopefully he’ll live until he’s 100 and BRK’s performance will stay steady as she goes.

I think the rest of the market is being thrown out with the bathwater until this credit situation improves. The Wall St. guys number one objective is to make money for themselves so if they are feeling pinched they’ll find a way to pinch the rest of the market.

[Ozzie]

Friday saw another 200 point downturn, but I think we’ll see 14,500 by the end of 2007 or Q1 08 . Earnings have been good in general and even the CAT disappointment was not due to revenue slippage but instead to one time capital expenditures that promise to increase earnings in the future. Tech seems strong. GDP was an uspide surprise and even consumer confidence was up. Just saw a report that the inflows into hedge funds in Q2 2007 set a record. How is that money going to be deployed? Surely not into risky bonds. Also saw an article in Barron’s last week that confirmed the “little guy” (the retail investor) has by and large sat out this Bull market run so there is not anywhere near the speculation of the late 90’s.

I try to buy USDA Prime steak when it’s on sale and the same goes for great stocks. I’ll spend a few hours this weekend hopefully finding some nice cuts to choose from.

[Ozzie]

Friday saw another 200 point downturn, but I think we’ll see 14,500 by the end of 2007 or Q1 08 . Earnings have been good in general and even the CAT disappointment was not due to revenue slippage but instead to one time capital expenditures that promise to increase earnings in the future. Tech seems strong. GDP was an uspide surprise and even consumer confidence was up. Just saw a report that the inflows into hedge funds in Q2 2007 set a record. How is that money going to be deployed? Surely not into risky bonds. Also saw an article in Barron’s last week that confirmed the “little guy” (the retail investor) has by and large sat out this Bull market run so there is not anywhere near the speculation of the late 90’s.

I try to buy USDA Prime steak when it’s on sale and the same goes for great stocks. I’ll spend a few hours this weekend hopefully finding some nice cuts to choose from.

[Ozzie]

oops, I was wrong. Those are foreclosures for Q2.

[Ozzie]

oops, I was wrong. Those are foreclosures for Q2.

[Ozzie]

Those are notices of default not actual foreclosures.

The biggest jump was in counties like Merced, Riverside, etc.

[Ozzie]

Those are notices of default not actual foreclosures.

The biggest jump was in counties like Merced, Riverside, etc.

[Ozzie]

I might have read the same article as you, Rustico. CAT talked about reducing inventories in their reseller channel because they had a tendency to overproduce product during boom times (like now) and that resulted in a clogged channel that ended up leading to price and profit cuts. Deere is doing the same thing. I know farmers have complained that they can’t get enough new product as they try to increase their corn production.

[Ozzie]

I might have read the same article as you, Rustico. CAT talked about reducing inventories in their reseller channel because they had a tendency to overproduce product during boom times (like now) and that resulted in a clogged channel that ended up leading to price and profit cuts. Deere is doing the same thing. I know farmers have complained that they can’t get enough new product as they try to increase their corn production.

[Ozzie]

There has been a huge amount of commerical space built over the last 10 years so vacancy rates are between 8-20% in different areas of San Diego. Carlsbad in particular has a large amount of newly built or soon to be built commercial and industrial space and it’s at the top of the vacancy chart with about 20% vacant right now. I do know a couple of mid size Sorrento Valley companies that are building and moving to the Bressi Ranch complex in Carlsbad.

BTW, the county’s unemployment rate “jumped” to 4.5%. Full employment is considered 6% I believe and who knows how many undocumented workers are in the county.

[Ozzie]

There has been a huge amount of commerical space built over the last 10 years so vacancy rates are between 8-20% in different areas of San Diego. Carlsbad in particular has a large amount of newly built or soon to be built commercial and industrial space and it’s at the top of the vacancy chart with about 20% vacant right now. I do know a couple of mid size Sorrento Valley companies that are building and moving to the Bressi Ranch complex in Carlsbad.

BTW, the county’s unemployment rate “jumped” to 4.5%. Full employment is considered 6% I believe and who knows how many undocumented workers are in the county.

[Ozzie]

As a CAT stockholder I was disappointed by the big miss, but the majority of the miss was because of a huge increase in operating expenses. They are implementing a new order-to-delivery system that will increase their profitability in the years to come and they didn’t execute it very well apparently. They also took a charge relating to a pensio charge for a subsidiary. They did however not back off on their earnings and revenue targets for 2007. I plan to hold for several more years. The global building surge will subside at some point but the US housing market will recover in the years to cme and I also think states like CA will help drive earnings as they upgrade infrastructure. Also like DE and SLB and a host of other infrastructure, machinery, oil services companies.

[Ozzie]

As a CAT stockholder I was disappointed by the big miss, but the majority of the miss was because of a huge increase in operating expenses. They are implementing a new order-to-delivery system that will increase their profitability in the years to come and they didn’t execute it very well apparently. They also took a charge relating to a pensio charge for a subsidiary. They did however not back off on their earnings and revenue targets for 2007. I plan to hold for several more years. The global building surge will subside at some point but the US housing market will recover in the years to cme and I also think states like CA will help drive earnings as they upgrade infrastructure. Also like DE and SLB and a host of other infrastructure, machinery, oil services companies.

[Ozzie]

Quietcat,

Welcome to Piggington’s. A very happy and helpful bunch here. Not so much. I’d suggest a free consultation with a RE lawyer in your area. You’ll get professional advice without all the extra junk.

[Ozzie]

Quietcat,

Welcome to Piggington’s. A very happy and helpful bunch here. Not so much. I’d suggest a free consultation with a RE lawyer in your area. You’ll get professional advice without all the extra junk.

[Author]

Posts