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ocrenter
Participant[quote=Myriad]
The high cost of living in CA is not taxes (CA is much better than NJ/NY for example), but housing. The issue of housing is regulatory.[/quote]
Exactly.
And the reason for the high housing cost…. too many people still want to live here.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Incidentally, you’re not paying the gas tax if you drive electric. So get solar and an electric car.[/quote]
You do still have to pay a higher registration fee.
But I don’t really mind, I would rather have better roads.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
I don’t want China to annex Taiwan. Taiwan now has de-facto independence but there are a lot of legal issues. I don’t think it’s for us, Americans, to get too deeply involved.I think we need to accept the rise of China. But we should contain China by providing a moral and business alternative to Chinese authoritarianism, otherwise the countries who do business with China will follow their model. China is all business and development while US foreign policy is still Cold War thinking. Moral preaching is not enough… there needs to be wealth and development.
The peaceful reunification of Germany is a good model. Angela Merkel is East German and East German politician are well integrated in running the country.[/quote]
Not really a comparable model at all. More comparable model would be Austria and Germany prior to WWII, and the West allowed Hitler to annex Austria based on Hitler’s desire to unify all Germanic people.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
You’re so lucky to read Chinese because you know first hand what’s going on over there. I wish I knew Chinese. I took classes but it’s hard to learn.
[/quote]
we are lucky there exists a free and democratic and independent country WITHIN the Greater Sinosphere that is OUTSIDE of control by China.
I did a news search this morning in Chinese with the key words “Chinese real estate.” Nothing from within China. Bunch of stuff from Taiwan, some articles in simplified Chinese, but they turned out to be based in N.America, receiving their source info likely from the same Taiwanese sources.
Taiwan gets annexed as you have always wished, and this type of information ceases to exist.
Participant[quote=Rich Toscano]Hi ocr – Where did you find that data on real estate to GDP ratio? That was a really interesting stat so I went looking for more info, and found this from PIMCO:
“We estimate China’s property market to be worth around US$22 trillion, approximately 1.8 times the size of its GDP in 2017.”
https://blog.pimco.com/en/2018/06/chinas-property-market-bubble-or-balloon%5B/quote%5D
Business Insider had the ratio at 3.7:1 at end of 2016.
http://m.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1239502
The ratio of 5:1 comes from Taiwanese news outlet this week, sorry, not in English. I just checked the numbers, they are using $62 trillion as the current Chinese property valuation instead of the $22 trillion cited in the PIMCO article. Plus they “rounded up” from 4.4 to 5.
Valuation in an opaque market like China is always difficult, but 4.4:1 ratio seems legit given ratio was 3.7:1 in 2016. $700k plus for an average sized condo in Xiamen (GDP per capita is $14k) seems to be in line with the higher ratio estimate.
ParticipantChinese real estate bubble bursting as we speak.
Builders offering condos at 50% reduction in inland provinces (Jiangxi)
In Xiamen, builder discount of 40% led to violent protests on the street by current owners. (Bought at $720k, now valued at $430k).
In Shanghai, builder discount by 20%.
Most builders living off credit, with credit drying up, there goes the fire sales. Things will be a lot worse then our prior bubble burst. Chinese real estate valuation is 5 times the size of their GDP. The Japanese bubble burst in the early 90’s had a valuation to GDP ratio of 2:1. The US 2008 bubble burst had a valuation to GDP ratio of 1.7:1. Not only that but building quality universally is atrocious, that’s going to make recovery efforts that much more difficult.
This coming right off the heel of bursting of the P2P lending bubble.
And suddenly our real estate market grinds to a halt. The Chinese led bubble burst has begun.
Participant[quote=Myriad][quote=ocrenter]How would you propose a cooperative relationship with the world’s biggest Nazi regime?[/quote]
It’s incorrect to equate China with the Nazi’s. They don’t want to get rid of other types of people, just subjugate them. The government really are just completely scared of Muslims and terrorism, but only second to internal protests.
What China is really trying to do is create a sphere of influence and a tribute system for countries to pay them. As opposed to Nazi’s trying to take over Europe.[/quote]Key aspect of nazism is the concept of racial hierarchy and the presence of a master race. Another important idea is socialism reshaped by extreme nationalism.
China ascribes to Han Chinese as the master race on top of all racial hierarchy. This is ingrained in the teaching of all Chinese children in school. They are doing everything they can to reach that goal in progressive steps. As for getting rid of people, they want to get rid of other cultures. Chinese have known the power of assimilation is far more effective in the long term than ethnic cleansing. Why do you think so many people think they are pure “Han Chinese” around the world? The plan is to annex Taiwan, the only sinospheric area outside of Chinese control. Once China can control the entire linguistic and cultural sphere (btw, no other country in the world have total control of a linguist and cultural sphere in the world, the ability to control speech and thought would be unprecedented), then onwards to all of the East Asian countries, which China sees as easy target for full assimilation. They also figure SE Asia would be easy prey given these brown countries are already dominated economically by Han Chinese. With full and total control of East and SE Asia, full domination of the world order would be a given.
Participant[quote=moneymaker]Very interesting. Makes me hope we can form a cooperative relationship with China rather than an adversarial one. Like the part about correlating phone battery status to likelihood of default on loan.[/quote]
How would you propose a cooperative relationship with the world’s biggest Nazi regime?
Participant[quote=flu]check if your security system has the ability to add water sensors. mine does, so I include them in the laundry and bsthrooms[/quote]
The system they are pushing is installed into the incoming plumbing to detect changes in water flow. Is that what they installed? The system costs ~$2-3k.
Participantpowerful speech, hope the momentum builds.
Although the NRA is so powerful we may need a nationwide school boycott until something finally gets done.
Participant[quote=flu]Buy bitcoin instead.
If you’re trying to get rich quick by timing the market, speculate on bitcoin. It’s so volatile that the price wildly swings by +-1 $1000 almost each day…So it’s perfect for people who try to time the market.
On the other hand, if you plan on doing a long term buy and accumulate and actually invest, drip a few hundred/thousand into an S&P500 index every month for the next 5-10 years and forget about it.[/quote]
20 something medical assistant at work was really gun-ho about bit coin, quieted down some over the last couple of weeks…
December 26, 2017 at 6:09 AM in reply to: How does one start a petition drive for a CA state “tax reform” in lieu of SALT caps? #808847Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]so how does that work?
i give $100 to cal grant.
i get a 50 state tax credit so im out of pocket 50.
then i get to deduct 100 on fed taxes?
say thats worth 35 to me. so for 100 i get 85 in tax breaks. im out 15$.
or i could kerp the 100 pay the full tax burden and keep about 55. im out 45?
is that it?[/quote]
Best scenario is state sets up a charity for you to donate in lieu of state income tax. And you simply get to write off 100% of that donation for the fed government.
Maybe state treasurer Chiang can set this up.
Participant[quote=spdrun]
You want to stay the greatest, don’t you? You want to stay the richest?
No. Greatness is subjective.
Wealth? I want to be comfortable and relatively free.
I’m not competitive in the sense that my country has to be at the top of the pile.
I’d take less wealth for more freedom and less control.[/quote]
China will not be great if it doesn’t make the next leap forward in the 4 stages of development (economic, technological, social, political).
Xi seems to set to keep China’s development within the confines of the economic and technological only and block the social and political growth needed for china to mature and truly be Great.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]We will see spdrun.
Some people think I’m a China sycophant. But not at all. I just worry that we are not keeping up. While we worry about Muslims, China is inventing new things.
While we are satisfied that we are the greatest, they are learning and becoming high tech and making money.You want to stay the greatest, don’t you? You want to stay the richest?[/quote]
it is human nature to be complacent and arrogant on the top. This is why the underdog often come up ahead, and it is often the guy trailing throughout the entire race that edges ahead and wins the race.
China is case in point. It was so arrogant and complacent of its mighty status that all others were viewed as mere barbarians. that mentality was the reason why it was unable to reform and implement Western thoughts and innovations but Japan (the guy running that distant 2nd in the East Asian world) was able to and turn around and launch a full on assault of China.
I see the US doing much of the same. Huge number of Americans are extremely ignorant of the rest of the world, and lack the most fundamental understanding of the competition out there. I do wish the average Americans can have half of the knowledge base Brian has.
The saving grace for America is ultimately the immigrants. Immigrants from the 40-50’s (Jews and Eastern Europeans), immigrants from the 60-70’s (Persians and Vietnamese and Cubans), immigrants from the 80’s (Koreans, Taiwanese), immigrants in the 90’s to now (Chinese, Indian, Arab), and ultimately the steady flow of immigrants from Mexico and other Latin Americans throughout the entire last century. Has it not been for this continuous influx of the world’s best and brightest, America would have already started its decline several decades prior. Because it has been the immigrants propping up this country, no wonder White America feel they are being “discriminated.”
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