[ocrenter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I think an interest rate based formula would be very interesting, but it would be important that it only get used by long-term buyers. As I opined in that recent article, if you are not a long term buyer you aren’t getting that big a benefit from the low rate, so it’s better to be concerned about prices and ignore rates.

However, for a long term buyer, it’s possible that prices could still be a bit high but rates could be low enough to compensate for that. That’s where your interest rate based formula could come in handy.

So it would be good to have two formulae: one for price-concerned buyers and one for payment-concerned buyers. I’d say the 2000 price plus 50% is probably about right for price. For payments we’d just have to factor in the different in rates between now and then. It’s Friday night and I’m too lazy right now but maybe I will mess around with it at some point.[/quote]

agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I think an interest rate based formula would be very interesting, but it would be important that it only get used by long-term buyers. As I opined in that recent article, if you are not a long term buyer you aren’t getting that big a benefit from the low rate, so it’s better to be concerned about prices and ignore rates.

However, for a long term buyer, it’s possible that prices could still be a bit high but rates could be low enough to compensate for that. That’s where your interest rate based formula could come in handy.

So it would be good to have two formulae: one for price-concerned buyers and one for payment-concerned buyers. I’d say the 2000 price plus 50% is probably about right for price. For payments we’d just have to factor in the different in rates between now and then. It’s Friday night and I’m too lazy right now but maybe I will mess around with it at some point.[/quote]

agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.

[ocrenter]

[quote=nct]Hi ocrenter,
Have you checked tax record for the lots bought by Pulte in 4s ranch? Looks model homes there are almost ready.

Thanks![/quote]

I saw a bunch of lots appraised and taxed at 105k for California West, the builder for Monteluz and Andalusia. That seem quite low for these lots.

Can’t find the Pulte lots. do you have the parcel numbers? In general 678-6xx-xx-xx tend to be 4S north side, didn’t see any owned by Pulte.

[ocrenter]

[quote=nct]Hi ocrenter,
Have you checked tax record for the lots bought by Pulte in 4s ranch? Looks model homes there are almost ready.

Thanks![/quote]

I saw a bunch of lots appraised and taxed at 105k for California West, the builder for Monteluz and Andalusia. That seem quite low for these lots.

Can’t find the Pulte lots. do you have the parcel numbers? In general 678-6xx-xx-xx tend to be 4S north side, didn’t see any owned by Pulte.

[ocrenter]

[quote=nct]Hi ocrenter,
Have you checked tax record for the lots bought by Pulte in 4s ranch? Looks model homes there are almost ready.

Thanks![/quote]

I saw a bunch of lots appraised and taxed at 105k for California West, the builder for Monteluz and Andalusia. That seem quite low for these lots.

Can’t find the Pulte lots. do you have the parcel numbers? In general 678-6xx-xx-xx tend to be 4S north side, didn’t see any owned by Pulte.

[ocrenter]

[quote=nct]Hi ocrenter,
Have you checked tax record for the lots bought by Pulte in 4s ranch? Looks model homes there are almost ready.

Thanks![/quote]

I saw a bunch of lots appraised and taxed at 105k for California West, the builder for Monteluz and Andalusia. That seem quite low for these lots.

Can’t find the Pulte lots. do you have the parcel numbers? In general 678-6xx-xx-xx tend to be 4S north side, didn’t see any owned by Pulte.

[ocrenter]

[quote=nct]Hi ocrenter,
Have you checked tax record for the lots bought by Pulte in 4s ranch? Looks model homes there are almost ready.

Thanks![/quote]

I saw a bunch of lots appraised and taxed at 105k for California West, the builder for Monteluz and Andalusia. That seem quite low for these lots.

Can’t find the Pulte lots. do you have the parcel numbers? In general 678-6xx-xx-xx tend to be 4S north side, didn’t see any owned by Pulte.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]ocr will pull in more then that. Usually they will not undertake a project unless they can realize a profit above 25%.[/quote]

that certainly make sense. so that would mean Toll Bros would have to get the smallest model (starting at 4000 sqft) up at cost of $325000 or $81/sqft if they want to be able to get the starting price at $900k. Is that doable on a more upscale home? I suppose we would have to see the quality of the models when they are ready.

probably can’t apply the same 25% margin rule on Montoro or Serenity, those I think were simply survival strategies cooked up by their respective builders just to get rid of the lots without suffering from significant losses.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]ocr will pull in more then that. Usually they will not undertake a project unless they can realize a profit above 25%.[/quote]

that certainly make sense. so that would mean Toll Bros would have to get the smallest model (starting at 4000 sqft) up at cost of $325000 or $81/sqft if they want to be able to get the starting price at $900k. Is that doable on a more upscale home? I suppose we would have to see the quality of the models when they are ready.

probably can’t apply the same 25% margin rule on Montoro or Serenity, those I think were simply survival strategies cooked up by their respective builders just to get rid of the lots without suffering from significant losses.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]ocr will pull in more then that. Usually they will not undertake a project unless they can realize a profit above 25%.[/quote]

that certainly make sense. so that would mean Toll Bros would have to get the smallest model (starting at 4000 sqft) up at cost of $325000 or $81/sqft if they want to be able to get the starting price at $900k. Is that doable on a more upscale home? I suppose we would have to see the quality of the models when they are ready.

probably can’t apply the same 25% margin rule on Montoro or Serenity, those I think were simply survival strategies cooked up by their respective builders just to get rid of the lots without suffering from significant losses.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]ocr will pull in more then that. Usually they will not undertake a project unless they can realize a profit above 25%.[/quote]

that certainly make sense. so that would mean Toll Bros would have to get the smallest model (starting at 4000 sqft) up at cost of $325000 or $81/sqft if they want to be able to get the starting price at $900k. Is that doable on a more upscale home? I suppose we would have to see the quality of the models when they are ready.

probably can’t apply the same 25% margin rule on Montoro or Serenity, those I think were simply survival strategies cooked up by their respective builders just to get rid of the lots without suffering from significant losses.

[ocrenter]

[quote=SD Realtor]ocr will pull in more then that. Usually they will not undertake a project unless they can realize a profit above 25%.[/quote]

that certainly make sense. so that would mean Toll Bros would have to get the smallest model (starting at 4000 sqft) up at cost of $325000 or $81/sqft if they want to be able to get the starting price at $900k. Is that doable on a more upscale home? I suppose we would have to see the quality of the models when they are ready.

probably can’t apply the same 25% margin rule on Montoro or Serenity, those I think were simply survival strategies cooked up by their respective builders just to get rid of the lots without suffering from significant losses.

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]FYI, Toll Brothers built in Encinitas Ranch mostly in 2002 and 2003. I beleive some may have been in 2004 also.[/quote]

so they probably purchased the land in 2001 or prior. and here they are buying land post-bubble. and bypassed on any land purchases at least in SD during the entire bubble peak. that’s a pretty amazing track record!

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]FYI, Toll Brothers built in Encinitas Ranch mostly in 2002 and 2003. I beleive some may have been in 2004 also.[/quote]

so they probably purchased the land in 2001 or prior. and here they are buying land post-bubble. and bypassed on any land purchases at least in SD during the entire bubble peak. that’s a pretty amazing track record!

[ocrenter]

[quote=sdrealtor]FYI, Toll Brothers built in Encinitas Ranch mostly in 2002 and 2003. I beleive some may have been in 2004 also.[/quote]

so they probably purchased the land in 2001 or prior. and here they are buying land post-bubble. and bypassed on any land purchases at least in SD during the entire bubble peak. that’s a pretty amazing track record!

[Author]

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