[NotCranky]

“I think you may be over estimating the amount of people who can pull 60k out of their ass and go put it down on a home in MM. How many responsible buyers do you know who DIDN’t get a home in the last few years that have 20% down? … besides a few/a lot of us piggies”

There are many people with 150k to buy two of them or 420k to buy 4 of them and a lot more first time buyers that will get in one way or another. Are we denying that there are a lot of houses in escrow in MIRA MESA? Those people got prequalified.

“And finally all of the arguments presented so far assume that there will be no recession, loss of jobs, etc. If there is a recession as many believe may happen, and job losses increase, don’t expect rents to remain at current levels. And don’t expect all the tenants to pay the full amount and on time. In difficult times, families will be living together, taking in roommates, people will leave this relatively expensive area for cheaper places like Texas, and so on. These same factors will also contribute to even lower home prices as well if they play out as expected.”

Good investors build knowlege of this into their game plan.They know we will pull out of a recession and that if they do not get greedy with the rents they will be fine. Historically low rates will work in their favor. They would probably take losses on their money in other markets anyway Many have gotten on the sidelines from the stock market recently or will be doing so soon.They may sacrifice at first, maybe a few years and they probably have positive cash flow from earlier investments to help out.They know that the payout will be good 20 years from now.This is a legitimate pyramid.

Many people on the other hand always think everything is wrong with everything . They are expert fault finders. They exaggerate the negative and are not “I’ll find a way to make it work” types(at least not with Real Estate).

Take the house that AN posted for instance nothing to say you can’t offer less that 300k on houses like that, repair it add a master suite, Up the rent $3OO and have an improved asset.

Oh yeah, another pigg says construction will come to a complete halt, so that won’t ever happen.People won’t be allowed to swing hammers for a while, evidently.

I think one should still pace themselves, probably wait at least until latesummer2008 and definitely write low ball offers, if they are going to write offers, but it is getting a lot closer to being a investor’s market.

[NotCranky]

“One of the couples in this story, Robert & Yvonne Cromer were featured in this story in 2004 (when things were still booming).”

Read both stories and the post associated with one of them . As a parent it makes me wonder what all this did for their children who were in the formative years when the parents were either on a roller coaster 24hrs a day or bingeing on Real Estate 12-15 hours a day and are now in the process dealing with losing Real Estate 12-15 hours a day. Nice.I hope they were at the least with grandma and not throwing up from stress in a corner somewhere at the local kindercare.

[NotCranky]

“One of the couples in this story, Robert & Yvonne Cromer were featured in this story in 2004 (when things were still booming).”

Read both stories and the post associated with one of them . As a parent it makes me wonder what all this did for their children who were in the formative years when the parents were either on a roller coaster 24hrs a day or bingeing on Real Estate 12-15 hours a day and are now in the process dealing with losing Real Estate 12-15 hours a day. Nice.I hope they were at the least with grandma and not throwing up from stress in a corner somewhere at the local kindercare.

[NotCranky]

“One of the couples in this story, Robert & Yvonne Cromer were featured in this story in 2004 (when things were still booming).”

Read both stories and the post associated with one of them . As a parent it makes me wonder what all this did for their children who were in the formative years when the parents were either on a roller coaster 24hrs a day or bingeing on Real Estate 12-15 hours a day and are now in the process dealing with losing Real Estate 12-15 hours a day. Nice.I hope they were at the least with grandma and not throwing up from stress in a corner somewhere at the local kindercare.

[NotCranky]

“One of the couples in this story, Robert & Yvonne Cromer were featured in this story in 2004 (when things were still booming).”

Read both stories and the post associated with one of them . As a parent it makes me wonder what all this did for their children who were in the formative years when the parents were either on a roller coaster 24hrs a day or bingeing on Real Estate 12-15 hours a day and are now in the process dealing with losing Real Estate 12-15 hours a day. Nice.I hope they were at the least with grandma and not throwing up from stress in a corner somewhere at the local kindercare.

[NotCranky]

“One of the couples in this story, Robert & Yvonne Cromer were featured in this story in 2004 (when things were still booming).”

Read both stories and the post associated with one of them . As a parent it makes me wonder what all this did for their children who were in the formative years when the parents were either on a roller coaster 24hrs a day or bingeing on Real Estate 12-15 hours a day and are now in the process dealing with losing Real Estate 12-15 hours a day. Nice.I hope they were at the least with grandma and not throwing up from stress in a corner somewhere at the local kindercare.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

It seems like buying here(Mira Mesa) now makes sense for people who want to pick up a second third etc. house and they have big cash flow by renting the one they are currently occupying. This should be easy to do for people who bought in the 90’s or earlier, they might consider themselves better off by securing current rates and getting the cash flow rolling into the new mortgage instead of letting it stay latent. This may the next generation of successful small time investor/ landlords. They make a lateral move as far as the house quality goes or step up a bit. The risk is pretty good.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[NotCranky]

SDR
The Mira Mesa Activity caught me be surprise this week.A client, who I thought was waiting to get out of Mira Mesa, brought up buying a second house there.There are indeed many pendings. I checked sales for the last calendar month and there were only 2 over last year. My guess is that failure rate for escrows will be pretty high or it will take a long time for some of these properties to close. Still,offer activity and pendings are pretty surprising. I checked the surrounding areas, which are all higher priced of course. It looks for the most part like activity matches last year pretty closely or that sales volume will be even lower.

This comparison has brought up a new concept for a possible trend. “Flight to Cheap”. This seems to make sense. Geographically, Mira Mesa is much like the other higher priced areas but is on fire by comparison. It is interesting that a year year and a half back. We were discussing “flight to quality” with regards to CV. Which was relatively on fire at the time. Money was still easy to get in large quantities then now it is not.

The “Flight to Cheap” Syndrome may get stronger for several reason. Buyers want to hedge potential losses with modesty(what a concept). Money is tight, probably especially down payment money. It is easier to come up with 10-20% down on 350K than 650K.

Now the question bothering me is… what happens after this hypothetical flight to cheap ? Is Mira Mesa going to find support first and the surrounding areas come down relatively? Is this a false floor and “cheap” ain’t “cheap enough yet(even in Mira Mesa)? I am thinking some of both but I am feeling like making predictions gets sightly more dangerous as time and price declines go by.On the other hand I don’t want to haphazardly slip into inuendo because of a few sales or pending sales.

[Author]

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