[NotCranky]

If the bank approved of the 470k list price that property is likely going to sell because of the traffic(interest shown). If it is an agent who has dreamed that number up and is going to try to present a surprise offer to the lender it might not happen.This last scenario is not very likely. My semi- educated guess is that odds are in favor of the property going to escrow.It could also just be a rush of interest that fades. If you go, you are taking control of your own destiny. If you wait, you will at least get standard notice and things will probably be fine. It is really up to you.
You might want to find out if an investor buys the property too. Maybe they would take you on as a tenant.

[NotCranky]

If the bank approved of the 470k list price that property is likely going to sell because of the traffic(interest shown). If it is an agent who has dreamed that number up and is going to try to present a surprise offer to the lender it might not happen.This last scenario is not very likely. My semi- educated guess is that odds are in favor of the property going to escrow.It could also just be a rush of interest that fades. If you go, you are taking control of your own destiny. If you wait, you will at least get standard notice and things will probably be fine. It is really up to you.
You might want to find out if an investor buys the property too. Maybe they would take you on as a tenant.

[NotCranky]

Allan,
Do you think if one institution dumps they will all have to follow suit? What is to stop the weakest link from dumping or even being forced to liquidate REO property? I think it is possible that if one goes they all have to go or else they wait for their competitors to make the bottom.

[NotCranky]

Allan,
Do you think if one institution dumps they will all have to follow suit? What is to stop the weakest link from dumping or even being forced to liquidate REO property? I think it is possible that if one goes they all have to go or else they wait for their competitors to make the bottom.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

I live in Jamul which has some similiarities to Fallbrook. Prices on the few closed are pretty high. Very few transactions occuring on about 100 listings. It has been that way for months.

That’s a link to what I thought was one of the better discussions we had on this topic. I was the “big chunk guy”.There are some smart an likeable posters here who are certain things will be slow, 3-5% per year. Maybe, generally things will be slow, with some big percentage losses happening quickly on individual house or zip codes.
I bought a house in 1992 for 38% of what the previous owner paid less than a year before. I bought another one in 1995 for more than 40% less than what the previous owner paid less than six months earlier. The first was a hud repo the second was a short sale.These purchases might bias my opinion. I think there is a good chance the banks will get this rolling soon, in some zips at least. It has to be the banks, IMO,through aggressive divestment of REO’s.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

I live in Jamul which has some similiarities to Fallbrook. Prices on the few closed are pretty high. Very few transactions occuring on about 100 listings. It has been that way for months.

That’s a link to what I thought was one of the better discussions we had on this topic. I was the “big chunk guy”.There are some smart an likeable posters here who are certain things will be slow, 3-5% per year. Maybe, generally things will be slow, with some big percentage losses happening quickly on individual house or zip codes.
I bought a house in 1992 for 38% of what the previous owner paid less than a year before. I bought another one in 1995 for more than 40% less than what the previous owner paid less than six months earlier. The first was a hud repo the second was a short sale.These purchases might bias my opinion. I think there is a good chance the banks will get this rolling soon, in some zips at least. It has to be the banks, IMO,through aggressive divestment of REO’s.

[NotCranky]

“I apologize. I thought I had seen similar forums here in the past and thought that this might be an ok question to ask. I absolutely appreciate your offer of assistance, but I’m not serious about making offers right now, so I don’t want to wast your time. Like most on this forum, I believe that prices will come down, so I’m sitting on the sidelines for now”

JC
No apologies necessary at all. Your casual interest is exactly why I am not willing to drag the information from the mls and other sources over here. It seems like I would be telling the story of the people actually going through these hard times. No one who contacts me at my offer could possibly “waste my time”. I am just trying to find a way to participate like the other Realtors do without doing something I am uncomfortable with so I offered the e-mail address.

In general I would be shocked if prices in 92104,92105,92116,92115 don’t come down soon and hard. That said this is taking longer than I thought it would. I sold my last house in 92116 in 2005. It is likely I will be buying SFR rentals in those areas with a business partner when we can apply some cash and labor and get them renting break even or close to it.

SDR I agree with your entire post. The short sale is likely nothing but an obstacle now. Not enough desperation to deal with agressive offers and just as much or more problems than REO’s. This is not to say I would avoid short sales completely.

[NotCranky]

“I apologize. I thought I had seen similar forums here in the past and thought that this might be an ok question to ask. I absolutely appreciate your offer of assistance, but I’m not serious about making offers right now, so I don’t want to wast your time. Like most on this forum, I believe that prices will come down, so I’m sitting on the sidelines for now”

JC
No apologies necessary at all. Your casual interest is exactly why I am not willing to drag the information from the mls and other sources over here. It seems like I would be telling the story of the people actually going through these hard times. No one who contacts me at my offer could possibly “waste my time”. I am just trying to find a way to participate like the other Realtors do without doing something I am uncomfortable with so I offered the e-mail address.

In general I would be shocked if prices in 92104,92105,92116,92115 don’t come down soon and hard. That said this is taking longer than I thought it would. I sold my last house in 92116 in 2005. It is likely I will be buying SFR rentals in those areas with a business partner when we can apply some cash and labor and get them renting break even or close to it.

SDR I agree with your entire post. The short sale is likely nothing but an obstacle now. Not enough desperation to deal with agressive offers and just as much or more problems than REO’s. This is not to say I would avoid short sales completely.

[NotCranky]

It is all very pricey now. Unbelieveably so. Still there are obviously houses at less price per square foot. This is the mystery Allan, prices came up in these central neighborhoods like this,even the ones that are not experiencing gentrification, to a point where a small and very old house was close to the price of a decent newer and larger tract home in Poway. People often buy very close to where they have rented. When the easy money came along these densely populated older regions sky rocketed too. I tend to think these neighborhoods will continue cracking at an accelerated pace. The foreclosure and short sale inventory is really piling up.

[NotCranky]

It is all very pricey now. Unbelieveably so. Still there are obviously houses at less price per square foot. This is the mystery Allan, prices came up in these central neighborhoods like this,even the ones that are not experiencing gentrification, to a point where a small and very old house was close to the price of a decent newer and larger tract home in Poway. People often buy very close to where they have rented. When the easy money came along these densely populated older regions sky rocketed too. I tend to think these neighborhoods will continue cracking at an accelerated pace. The foreclosure and short sale inventory is really piling up.

[NotCranky]

JC,
I am a real estate agent and I am familiar with this area. In order to give you info to support my suggested offer or strategy for a specific house , I would have to publish data that in my opinion is sensitive to the seller and other pertinent third parties,on a public forum. I am not comfortable with that. If you would like my input on a specific property I will respond to an email at [email protected].
You would not create the slightest obligations for yourself by doing so.

[NotCranky]

JC,
I am a real estate agent and I am familiar with this area. In order to give you info to support my suggested offer or strategy for a specific house , I would have to publish data that in my opinion is sensitive to the seller and other pertinent third parties,on a public forum. I am not comfortable with that. If you would like my input on a specific property I will respond to an email at [email protected].
You would not create the slightest obligations for yourself by doing so.

[NotCranky]

I agree with your recommendation too bugs. I came to the same suggestion, more or less. I am very greatful for the no nonsense angle you bring to these topics.

Your version just sounds so hard core. Houses are soft and fuzzy Bugs :). We like to tinker with them:).They are special and we leave our artistic and spiritual touches on them. They are the scrap books of our lives.

[NotCranky]

I agree with your recommendation too bugs. I came to the same suggestion, more or less. I am very greatful for the no nonsense angle you bring to these topics.

Your version just sounds so hard core. Houses are soft and fuzzy Bugs :). We like to tinker with them:).They are special and we leave our artistic and spiritual touches on them. They are the scrap books of our lives.

[NotCranky]

Things are going to be slow here tonight so you might want to bump your thread up a couple of times in the next few days.
BTW I am a contractor with a RE license. Someone else on another thread alluded to the possibility that it would be more of a buyer’s market regarding remodels and it can be. I know when I need subs, it has been way easier on the house I am finishing now verses the last house I built.I had an aquaintance call me and say he would do all the tile work just for the cost of the labor for his crew.This is a good guy too.
If you have a small yard, an addition can hurt you ,going second story is much more expensive and you really want a good contractor for that.

I also feel it is risky to put too many eggs in a basket right now. So if you don’t just have lot’s of cash around think twice about dumping money into a house(or using any credit). I have a friend who is in a similiar position as you find yourself in. I asked him to think about holding off on major upgrades to see where things go. He has a house which is not his “Destination house” and remodeling and adding on isn’t going to make it be that way. I suggested to him that he leave it as it is and consider having it be a rental for retirement and using his buying power to get the house he wants if prices drop considerably.

If you decide to make do with what you have you might consider a cheap unpermitted garge conversion that can be undone easily or a second hand travel trailer. The kids could sleep in the garage only when you have guests or the guests could sleep in the travel trailer.(I understand many people don’t want a travel trailer on the property)

That is of course just one take on it. Feel free to ask me any questions.

[Author]

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