[NotCranky]

SD R I volunteer you to start a “Jumbo” monitor. BTW it was cold, windy and rainy in SD today.

[NotCranky]

“4. Most of the posts here look convincing and well supported with all kinds of data. I remember someone posted earlier this year with support of history figure/curve of stock index, and predicted S&P 500 drop to 500 at this summer. I was shocked upon reading it and was really upset then. Summer is almost gone now. How would you think about this kind of claim/prediction?”

I was a lurkor, like you,when this happened. Keep in mind this persons claim was almost universally dismissed by other piggingtonians.

[NotCranky]

I tell my kids that we have a wonderful society where the young people take care of the old . I say “son you will take care of your dad when you grow up…and all the other dads too”. Might as well get them used to it.

An aside:
It is hot up here in the hills of San Diego today but the clouds thunder and lightning and rain are putting on a terrific show. Beautiful sunset from 200O feet and 25 miles from the Pacific.

[NotCranky]

I did get the gist of wtb was saying about his situation. He is not rich. As to his support network, well I don’t know,but gave it some consideration as I always do. I see a family rescue as a option that most would not want to gamble on going into a purchase unless the rescue would be completely trivial compared to the relative wealth of would be rescuer and that they happily agreed to be in that position.I hope that is OP’S situation. To each his own though. I am certainly not picking on WTB.

[NotCranky]

AN,

Would the possibity of a difficult employment enviorment have any effect on your textbook theory of “paper only loss”? How about “Spiraling Bankruptcies” or other negative epidemic. I am not picking on you just trying to make the point that there is some significant risk. It is directly proportionate to how out of what the market and economy is at the point of investment into the house.

EDIT:
Lets put this in a positive way too. AN do you realize what purchasing property at an very propicious time vs. a terrible time can do for someone’s opportunities in life?

[NotCranky]

Did anybody remind the OP that he has to invite us all to the heavily catered “gourmet” house warming party?

[NotCranky]

“but don’t you think that the fastest way back would be with NO intervention at all?”

For the FED and politicians and those people that influence them I don’t think the “fastest way back” is how they are looking at it. It certainly doesn’t matter what I want to have happen. Obviously we are going to have affordability sooner or later so that puts time on the prospective buyer’s side. I think we should be careful not to assume affordability is absolutely coming as the result of massive price declines.I do enjoy having been in the big chunk camp because it looks like we will get that. Just don’t want to be in the big chump camp by missing something like nascent inflation. Of course these things happen slowly and we will be the first to know either way.

[NotCranky]

WTB 8 weeks could help you if you use it to study distress, motivation and the ability of sellers to take low offers.If you are lazy and let the agent lead you by the nose 8 weeks from now, that won’t do you any good. If you must buy you might at least test fate by writing low bids to good candidates for those offers. This activity could help you get your finger on the pulse of the market if you don’t already have it there. Maybe that would be the eye-opener you need to be more patient or at least maybe net you a better deal.

[NotCranky]

“entitlement Tsunami that will start hitting around 2011.”
Please explain.

JWM, Thanks for responding. I am following the discussion.

[NotCranky]

“my only fear is that our government hyperinflates itself out of this situation”

This is my concern too.
Feel free to help me understand:
What I believe happens in the hypothetical “hyperinflation” is that savings get slammed. House prices will become affordable with inflation catching up to them. The rest of the world is really pissed because of the dollar being reserve currency. Imports go up. Everything goes up.

Thanks in advance for any clarification.

This is what a very old(experienced) RE investor, friend of mine, thinks is going to happen. For what it is worth he was an adolescent during the depression and doesn’t think we are going to have one.

[NotCranky]

….. which is the natural progression needed to pop the bubble. In fact even though the homeowner essentially loses the home…
SDR
Besides this comment I have seen some post about how various bail out schemes are apparently causing you some distress.
There is no way that affordability is not coming back. All this stuff about helping debtors isn’t going to change that, perhaps it modifies the course slightly but that’s it.

IMO the important thing is how is affordability going to return.

[NotCranky]

It’s more fun to have a mellow ruse than it is to have mello roos.

[NotCranky]

Josh,
I will go to the beach on Tuesday when you are working…or Wednesday or maybe next week or the next ect ect.hahahaha.
Whatever you do have a good time!

[NotCranky]

Start thinking compromise(I like to call it cooperation) with your wife. I told mine that I wanted to move to Arkansas but if she wanted to stay in San Diego I got to pick where and how(since I was giving up Arkansas).

The condo seems like a bad idea. The rent is only going to be applied at .75 gross rents by the lender. If you are renting negative it will be a hit there too. Also as amateur landlords you want to really think about handling above average vacancies and a costly eviction as a distinct possibility. I think the condo hurts you when you want to buy the house and puts you at risk for major trouble.

Houses are going to get more affordable. Affordability is part of the normal business cycle. For Schizo’s sake I won’t go beyond that prediction. Are houses truly affordable where you want to buy? That doesn’t mean can you afford it. It means can most of the “demographic” who would normally buy there afford it in good times and bad.I don’t think there are many “first time buyer” or “move up” areas that fit the description.

My suggestion is to wait .Buy when affordability is near its best.When you buy, buy less house than you can afford and strategize to buy rentals or use that house for a rental and buy another some time down the road.

Of course some large percentage of people will not intentionally buy less house than they can “afford” . Take it as food for thought.

If you still want to buy, buy the house and buy less than you can afford. Alternately buy the condo with something more like a 7-10 year plan to live in it. I don’t like the idea of a condo for you but that might be more realistic.

Best wishes

[NotCranky]

Alex says; “There is no HOLLYWOOD in texas or asians!!!!!!”

Rusticos says, No seas rascista Alejandro!

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