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NotCranky
Participant“They might be lucky unless they also bought in 1996″…. will 1995 do O.K? nearly 40% below what previous buyer paid. How about 1992 38% less than previous buyer paid….after sitting on hands for a few years. No lie An, even though I have a license, I stopped selling people houses after ….I am going to look it up…03-2004. I sold one condo after that but I swear I told the people they were nuts and that they should keep renting. They brought the deal to me because they owed me a favor for getting a 5k earnest money deposit back from an unscrupulous lender/agent combo by helping htem write letters.
I sold my last house in 03-2005 (except for the one I own free and clear thanks to not being able to time the market).
I will make you a deal. Let’s have lunch and I will break my anonymity to you and give you the proof of any of this that you want. I will bring my current clients who can tell you how long I have been telling them to play it safe. One sold and is renting. I refuse to sell houses to people who I deem cannot afford them. Yeah that’s wierd.
After I prove it, you let me sell you your next house. I will help you time the market, wether you can afford it or not will be your problem. If I am not telling the truth I will give you the entire commission on your next house, you time the market by yourself.
Please excuse any display of ill temper…I am in a foul mood.ParticipantIs it just me AN, or are you presenting a circular, back pedalling,vexatious argument?
ParticipantI think anectdotally there is evidence for several people having called the top. In fact if someone showed up tomorrow and said “hey I dumped my house between spring of 2004 and spring of 2006, because I knew that market was or would be toast”, I would say that is proof enough that someone called the top. Plenty of us are already here who did such things. I think if someone went to the trouble to start a blog they also called the top. Maybe reasonable humility say’s you don’t crow like a rooster about it but if you started a blog(or started a new life a housing bubble blogger on the bear side) that says something.If we want to make a federal case out of these things we will have to call in witnesses and more evidence. C’mon AN, trust me, many people were all over this bubble.
ParticipantDo you know more about this topic? How often does this happen?When was the last time ect.? Could this signify a retro-active vote of “no confidence” in the GSE’s by big capital players?
ParticipantI watched the videos. The situations describe are not far fetched at all. However, I don’t trust the speaker/authors motivations.Supposedly we are going to level the playing field with all the resource rich nations and support democracy by forcing corporations,IMF, ect to be kinder and gentler, more eguitable partners with leadership of said regions. I note that he doesn’t mention that an equal playing field would require voluntary impoverishment on the part of the citizens of our “fat lazy union” from the top down or that we strip the most the world of resources and disperse them in the shape of american(western) style luxuries that which would in turn consume the rest of the worlds resources in a week or two.
We can blame the “corporatocracy” but I don’t think we would willfully impoverish ourselves to make the world a better place even if we were guaranteed of success in doing so. I am sure Mr. Perkins would not, nor would he have that agenda for his family. So long as our citizenry(voters) is greedy and our elites are greedier, power hungry,evil bastards the Empire will not take a new direction.
ParticipantYou might be able to tell some people, ‘it’s a stupid time to buy or get a loan,’
Shiloh , I am very aware of this. The only real way to avoid helping some people do stupid things was to refuse to participate. Advising credit counseling be undertaken,after signing DOCS on a nutso cuckoo loan,during bubble mania doesn’t make much sense.
ParticipantThere was a thread a couple of months back where I posted about a friend who was contacted by his bank about loan re-structuring before his teaser rate arm,which he cash out refied into, was to adjust. He had not missed or been late on any payments. The bank was Chase and the deal is finished. He was given a fixed for 30 years at about 6.5%.
Hopefully things will work out for them. He and his wife used the money from the refi to pay cash for place in South America they hope to retire to.ParticipantHow Many mortgage brokers just promised the exploding ARM client that they could refinance in 2 years VS. how many counseled them on credit repair and the fact that even credit repair and modest wage increases would not save them from being upside down and a liquidity crunch? Sorry Jon but it sounds like you are saying…”if they only would have listened to me my clients wouldn’t have gotten hurt”.Well maybe where you live but as JWM said, “not around here”. In too many cases the only thing that would have worked around here, for the marginal buyer, would be to tell them it was a stupid time to buy or get a loan for that matter.
ParticipantGood Post SDR,
Some one had to say it. Your’s truly was on the verge of it. I don’t think the majority of people talking about rentals have a clue how much goes into identifying or manufacturing workable deals even in a good market. Snap’em up and run an add doesn’t do it most of the time.I and some of my clients have had some success at this and I must say racking your brains and busting your ass is the key(for small time investor)…
Participant“I am not positive but I think it is leading SD County in foreclosures right now at least for detached homes. (Purely a speculative statement)”
It is way up there SD R. Unfortunately what we have both apparently not seen or researched is the ratio for foreclosures to actual housing stock numbers by these zips.
I agree with the speculation comments. I think speculation was born in Eastlake, long before it became cool. If you wanted to live in Chula Vista, Eastlake was a pretty good deal when a relatively big,brand new house came on the market for 250K….Just as a similiar home Temecula was in the late 80’s at around 140k.
September 3, 2007 at 9:34 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83227ParticipantI really hope you keep your job JWM…or get a more secure one. I recall you have posted about some misfortune on that matter.
ParticipantOtay and Eastlake not looking good on the resale front either. Lots of foreclosures and pretty dramatic price slashing going on. It looks like Temecula in more ways than those you mentioned for sure.
Participant“Rustico Rustico Rustico… You better be putting me on your payroll soon. Once the recession hits and I loose my engineering job I will hope you will employ me somehow…”
Sorry SD R for better and for worse I have never learned the art of delegation…
Participant“which implies 2244 homes are currently listed on a $50K range from $450K to $499K — for an average of 45 homes for each $1000 slice. That is a pretty dense listing density for a dead market.”
bsr, This is pretty grey area.The quote you posted doesn’t seem to reflect science but more the are of guestimation and inference. Naturally there is density around the median. I guarantee you there are not 45 houses for each 1000 slice towards the extremes.
Your question about wether or not the “Jumbo” numbers can be monitored is more strait forward but has also many divergent factors. What about general inventory trends for instance? Anyway the problem needs more than just the data on the number of houses in each price range.
I think what you are getting at is this… around the Conforming /jumbo border, with jumbos being as scarce as people to put down a large payment to bring the loan to conforming, the house one can buy(y) is going to go up in quality, size, location, amenities ect. exponentially with the amount (X) in dollars that the price is above conforming. This could become true. It wouldn’t be the first time “high end” got slammed.
I am going to stop this post for now but will continue thinking about the possible implications and watching this thread.
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