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North County Jim
ParticipantI saw this one yesterday. Not only a foreclosure sale but listed as a fixer-upper. This house is less than three years old!
Note the lack of interior photos in the MLS.
ParticipantThis is the easiest money we have ever made in our lifetime.
I’m curious how you were able to make the easy money. Did you buy the land pre-bubble? Was there that much money to be made from fall to winter 2005 as the market was beginning to roll over?
I’m not picking on you. I’m just curious.
ParticipantMy wife and I were in a somewhat similar situation. As we saw things getting pretty nutty, we would unseriously discuss selling and renting. As the craziness continued, we entertained it more seriously.
With the ability to ride out any economic storm, we asked ourselves two questions.
1. Are we in the house we want to be in?
That was a yes.
2. Are we in the neighborhood we want to be in?
That was a big no. Weeds are a pet peeve of mine and they seemed to be getting worse in the old neighborhood. And don’t get me started on the neighbor next door.
So we sold last September. Not a single regret.
ParticipantOK, we can all agree the dangers are there. Protect assets accordingly.
ParticipantI watch numbers every day. I think things will get very ugly. I just don’t think that economic Armageddon is around the corner.
Read some of powayseller’s posts. Predictions of all kinds of financial failures (pension funds, banks, etc.).
I don’t think these events are beyond the realm of possibility. I just don’t believe they’re likely.
Participant…unfunded welfare state that will be funded via monetary debasement.
I couldn’t agree more that the welfare state combined with low fertility rates is the Achilles’ Heel of western civilization (Mark Steyn describes it as deathbed demographics).
With regard to China, what happens when the consequences of their one-child policy come home to roost in their labor force? How will they pay for that?
ParticipantI must be missing something kitty. The average historical foreclosure rate can’t be much more than a third of a percent with a pretty small standard deviation. How do three standard deviations get you to 99% of homebuyers?
ParticipantSame 17′ truck from Phoenix to SD: $99.
SD to Phoenix: $319.I’d guess you’d see similar lopsidedness just about anywhere you’d check.
ParticipantMost of us who purhcased a home in the last few years are on the verge of losing our homes.
This is the pessimism I alluded to earlier. Most is a pretty strong word in this context.
My guess would be that the percentage of those who lose their homes will be several standard deviations above the historical norm. Based on historical foreclosure rates, how many standard deviations would it take for most of the recent home buyers to lose their homes? Hundreds?
ParticipantI bet there will not be as many people coming to town as leaving.
A quick hop over to U Haul’s website for quotes on one-way rentals will tell you all you need to know.
17′ truck (SD to LV): $405
17′ truck (LV to SD): $159ParticipantWho is Donald Dump? He sounds like a cartoon slumlord.
ParticipantI don’t know you well enough to know whether the comment was mean-spirited or not. One could certainly interpret it that way.
So let me know whether or not you’re an a**hole and maybe we can resume the discussion in a less polarizing manner.
ParticipantI agree with you. Most likely it’s because realtors are so visible. With signage, car placards, etc., this is what the public sees. They only hear Barney Aldrich and his ilk.
While realtors may be guilty of cheerleading in the face of an impending downturn, this does not compare to the damage caused by mortgage brokers steering their own clients into toxic loans for an extra point on the back end.
We’ll see how it all shakes out. If this goes extremely sour, the public will want scalps.
ParticipantJJ,
We’ve been following the new and resale SFR market in San Elijo Hills since January. Resale inventory has been in the mid 60’s for several weeks. If you add in condos, the inventory nearly doubles. If you use the interactive map feature in Zip Realty, things look a little clustery.
As for the new stuff, things have the potential to get a little dicey. As of last Saturday, there were 36 unsold builder homes that have been released. This is up substantially since our first visit in January. There are two reasons for this. One, three new neighborhoods have had first phase releases in the last few weeks adding to supply. Two, the new homes there are just not selling as readily as they were.
Pulte is in the latter phases of their two neighborhoods. Their latest phase releases did not sell out including some high-end ocean view lots priced in the low to mid 900’s. They still had 11 homes available in their two neighborhoods. They have also been farming stuff out on the MLS through a Prudential agent in Carlsbad.
Other than the ocean view lots, there has been some discounting (both price and upgrades). For an example of the pricing discount, check the SEH website versus Pulte’s own website.
For the brand new neighborhoods, the first phase releases were less than spectacular. The highest end neighborhood by DR Horton was less than half sold.
First phase sales for the two Richmond American neighborhoods fared poorly. The higher end of their two neighborhoods had sold one home (in a release of seven homes) in about three weeks (there was also one house reserved by a buyer who had not yet qualified).
In their defense, they’re trying to sell these homes well before the models are built (probably mid-summer). Then again, that didn’t stop people from buying up releases two years ago.
Regarding the Mello Roos assessments, I’ve seen a couple of property tax bills in there and they appear to be more in the $300-400 range per month.
One last anecdote to share. At an Open House about a month ago, I was chatting with a realtor. Her one telling comment was that she thought there were a lot of overextended people in SEH. I saw all the confirmation I needed when I drove through Pulte’s two neighborhoods. More ragged landscaping than I would have expected (Hollowbrook Ct. stood out in that regard).
We like the location. If we can find something with a pool-sized lot and a modicum of privacy at the right price, we’ll pull the trigger. However, I’m not expecting that this year.
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