[North County Jim]

JJ,

We picked up the sheet from the SEH Welcome Center with currently released homes. There are currently 42 homes available from builders. There’s also 80-something resales out there.

Many of the builder homes were languishing from our last visit over a month ago. Richmond American’s Luminara neighborhood hadn’t sold a single house since our last visit in early May. The same story for DR Horton’s Sonoma development.

What’s amazing to me is the number of near-new homes on the market. Pulte still has 8-10 houses left to sell in its Meridian neighborhood and there’s four units for resale already. All of them, of course, are asking top dollar.

They’re entitled to be made whole, you know.

[North County Jim]

Bugs,

14% above the previous record would put us very close to 22,000. Current inventory is about 21,400.

It looks like we’re getting close and we’re still in the early innings.

[North County Jim]

Update on the two REO’s.

17xx Tara Way: Reduced on June 2 to $799k. Now $62k below sale price from last July.

31xx Sycamore Heights: Reduced another $5k to $850k. Now over 100 DOM.

[North County Jim]

I am opposed to the military. What a waste of money!

Here’s a thought experiment for you. Imagine the world today without the US military playing any part in history.

Since this a real estate forum, I’ll leave it at that.

[North County Jim]

Two data points. Not yet a trend but..

31xx Sycamore Heights Pl
Escondido

Bought in October 2004 for $924,900. Foreclosed last fall and has been on the MLS as an REO since February. Original asking price of $880k now reduced to $855k.

Assuming the condition has not deteriorated, we’re looking at a $70k reduction in 19 months. And it’s still sitting.

[North County Jim]

For those reasons most of the foreclosed homes sell for nearly full market value…

One data point does not establish a trend but..

17xx Tara Way
San Marcos

Bought in July 2005 for $860,900 by realtor/speculator. Went on the market in September for $875-925k with no success. Foreclosed last month and just appeared as an REO on the MLS. Asking price of $818k.

The three competing listings on the same street are all asking anywhere from $860k to 1 million. Of course, these have window coverings and backyard landscaping so the comparison is limited.

Nevertheless, it’s selling at a $44k discount to a year ago.

[North County Jim]

I figured you wouldn’t be able to resist a Bob Casagrand thread.

[North County Jim]

I don’t want to speak for sdr but I’d sure like to see question #3 go away since it was the basis for much of the poison that’s been bandied about recently.

For the record, I’ll take sdr at his word that he’s having a great year thus far.

Because there are thousands of agents out there in the county, there surely must be a number of agents doing better than they did last year, even with a shrinking commission pie. I doubt sdr and John Lundin are the only two agents doing better.

Additionally, there’s probably fewer agents out there. A reduction in the number of agents will offset the declining volume for the survivors.

I have no problem with your other questions.

[North County Jim]

Oddly enough, all three mentioned a woman who inappropriately got up at the end and started telling her life story.

In light of events on a recent thread, that’s probably a little gratuitous.

[North County Jim]

Thanks. I figured there was more to it than the initial appearance.

As far as mixing up the parcels, the sale of the $31 million parcel is listed as Double Peak Dr., which will be the turnoff from San Elijo Rd. into Atherton. The other parcel is listed as Wild Canyon Road, which happens to run past Luminara.

[North County Jim]

JJ,

Maybe it’s counterintuitive but I’d probably go the other way and hire a full-service agent. Most of us on the site agree that the path of least resistance is down. In that environment, I’d rather get the deal done ASAP.

I’d probably also throw in an extra point on the commission for a sale in the first 30 days. I’d want as much agent and buyer traffic as possible.

I’d probably also go with the agent who came up with the lowest estimate of the home’s value.

I don’t believe this is a time where you want to stagnate looking for that miracle offer.

Unless, of course, this scenario would cause you to bring a check to the settlement table that you didn’t have.

[North County Jim]

I’d rather not post a link to the index of his recorded documents. Trust me, he is the grantee on five separate deeds over a four month period in 2004. In each and every deed transfer, he is the grantor on two trust deeds. I’ll go ahead and conclude 80/20’s all around.

I’ll defer to your knowledge on the foreclosure process but I think it’s a stretch to think that this is his only default.

[North County Jim]

You may want to check the recorded documents index. I’m guessing – only guessing – that this was not his only default.

[North County Jim]

Not only should you not trust their forecasts, don’t trust their data. According to Florida broker Mike Morgan (through Mish), there’s a strong belief they cherry pick data.

Here’s the money quote:

NAR extrapolates. They survey 1-2% of the market and then multiply and add a “fudge” factor. He said he believes they intentionally avoid distressed markets like Miami, Naples, Vegas, Phoenix, DC, etc. There (sic) goal, as our Trade Association, is to promote the industry, not to report a comprehensive picture. If they avoid the hard hit markets, their numbers will consistently paint a much better picture than what reality is.

URL for the full post:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/04/far-vs-nar.html

[North County Jim]

Maybe just a matter of semantics but I would characterize taking title to five properties in the county in a four month span as a buying spree.

However, the real point of this guy’s story is how many more are in the same boat.

[Author]

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