[North County Jim]

Cagan did not say “chance of default”, but “risk of default”. He EXPECTS them to default. I did not say “1 mil loans WILL default”, but that Cagan expects it.

I’ve read the NYT piece and reread it and nowhere do I get the impression that Cagan expects all of the at-risk loans to default. How do you arrive at that conclusion?

Perhaps the nuance escapes me but please explain the difference between “chance of default” and “risk of default”.

[North County Jim]

Thanks Daniel. My bad.

[North County Jim]

PS, what title did you give this thread?

Maybe I’m reading too much into this but I think there is a huge difference between saying x amount of mortgages are at risk and x amount of defaults are expected.

[North County Jim]

For the record, I am not Jim the Realtor.

[North County Jim]

The spy agencies were never sure that there were WMDs in Iraq.

Please educate us which spy agencies were unsure.

It would certainly not include the CIA. This was George Tenet’s infamous “slam-dunk” call.

It certainly wasn’t the agencies who supplied Sen. Rockefeller (ranking minority member of the Intelligence Committee) intelligence prior to his speech on the Senate floor and his subsequent vote in favor of authorizing force to disarm the Iraqi regime.

So who were they?

[North County Jim]

PC,

I’m inferring you are giving the intelligence agencies a lot of credibility here. If so, why?

[North County Jim]

PS,

Why are you assuming that every at-risk loan will default? That seems to be quite a stretch, no?

[North County Jim]

There’s been another serious blink in SEH. This one is at 8*5 Hollowbrook.

This home was originally purchased in May 2005 for $800k by what appears to be an absentee owner/investor. I first noted this house in early summer when the asking price was $750-850k. That was later reduced to a flat $750k. It has now been reduced to a range of $675-750k. The comments note it is a short sale subject to lender approval.

My question for the pros out there. Would the lender (in this case Countrywide for both a first and second TD) have already agreed to the low end of this range as a selling price?

Also of note, the next-door neighbor with an inferior lot is also selling with an asking price of $910k.

[North County Jim]

…or Volvo with a W’04 sticker on the bumper.

Demographically speaking, Volvos are definitely favored by left-of-center types.

[North County Jim]

my strong and witty writing style…

I know it’s a meatball right down the middle but I’ll leave the bat on my shoulder.

[North County Jim]

My post was so bearish, he completely erased my post.

PS, it appears Jim the Realtor gave another reason for deleting your post.

You come into my house and deliver 3,000 words of ranting and raving, and then call it data and analysis.

I’ve said a couple of times, as tactfully as possible, that it’s not your message that’s the problem, it’s how you deliver it.

[North County Jim]

Wow, two defaults right on top of one another. 789 Turtle Point was another foreclosure.

[North County Jim]

Mr. B,

066078490

[North County Jim]

8×4 Antilla is on the non-view side of the street so it’s an apples-to-oranges comparison. Incidentally, this guy has been on and off the market since November after buying in October for $743k.

[North County Jim]

I also plan to sell my existing house as soon as I can find a suitable rental

I would sell first and then find a suitable rental. Do you really want to sign a lease or lease/option before you’ve sold your existing home in this market?

[Author]

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